How education mitigates the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?
The gap between achieved fertility and fertility ideals is notably higher in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than elsewhere, relating to both under- and overachievement of fertility ideals. We consider the extent to which the relationship between fertility ideals and achieved fertility is mitigated by educational achievement. Further, we consider if the effect of education acts differently in SSA, and thereby hypothesise how increasing levels of education in SSA may decrease fertility.We use 227 Demographic and Health Surveys from 57 countries worldwide to look at population- and individual-level measures of achieving fertility ideals. Population level measures are used to assess whether the correspondence between fertility intentions and achievements differ by level of education. We then look at the individual-level determinants of both under- and overachieving fertility intentions. An average of 40% of women in SSA underachieve their stated fertility intentions compared to 26% in non-SSA countries. Furthermore, the educational gradient of underachievement is different in SSA where higher levels of education are not related to better correspondence between fertility intentions and achievements. We argue that the phenomenon of underachieving fertility ideals (or unrealized fertility) may be of particular importance for the ongoing fertility transition throughout SSA, especially for highly educated groups.