scholarly journals Evaluating Selection for Sexually Violent Predator Commitment: A Comparison of Those Committed, Not Committed, and Nearly Committed

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Perillo ◽  
Cynthia Calkins ◽  
Elizabeth Jeglic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Scores ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Empirically Supported ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Selection For

We examined state-wide data of persons evaluated for Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) commitment and compared risk-relevant data of three groups: those committed as SVPs ( n = 374), those not recommended for commitment ( n = 2,707), and those nearly committed (recommended for commitment but ultimately not committed; n = 117). Consistent with legal language for SVP commitment, binary and multinomial regression analyses revealed risk scores predicted SVP commitment recommendations in addition to some historical factors (e.g., psychiatric history, never being married, prior sex offenses). For those recommended for commitment, prior sexual offenses predicted ultimate commitment. Those nearly committed had significantly higher sexual recidivism rates than others who were not committed; however, these recidivism rates were still low (11.5%). Findings suggest evaluators’ SVP decisions incorporate risk data and follow empirically supported trends; however, the observed recidivism rates of a subset of those SVP commitment appears to target suggests SVP commitment’s potential for reducing sexual recidivism effectively and efficiently appears to have a low ceiling.

A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107906322110197
Author(s):  
Allen Azizian ◽  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
James Rokop ◽  
Deirdre M. D’Orazio
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
State Hospitals ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
General Recidivism

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (14) ◽  
pp. 1593-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Sexually Violent Person ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

A Comparison of Risk Factors Among Discharged Military Veterans and Civilians Involuntarily Hospitalized Under California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107906322094030
Author(s):  
Sarah G. Paden ◽  
Allen Azizian ◽  
Shoba Sreenivasan ◽  
Jim McGuire ◽  
Stephanie Brooks Holliday ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Military Veterans ◽  
Male Victims ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Target Male ◽  
Violent Offenses ◽  
Pedophilic Disorder

While military veterans have a lower overall rate of incarceration for criminal offenses than civilians, they have a higher rate of incarceration for violent sexual offenses. Despite military veteran overrepresentation among individuals adjudicated for violent sexual offenses, little is known about their risk factors for sexual offending. This study compared military veterans and civilians who had been involuntarily hospitalized and discharged pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act. Pedophilic disorder appeared nearly twice as often among veterans than civilians (62.7% vs. 38.7%), whereas antisocial personality disorder was twice as common among civilians compared to veterans (48.1% vs. 23.9%). Consistent with the result for pedophilic disorder, veterans were more likely to target male victims age 13 and below, while civilians tended to target female victims over the age of 13. The results suggest different risk profiles for veterans compared to civilians who have been convicted of sexually violent offenses.

scholarly journals Juvenile sex offenders: Mental health and reoffending

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S2) ◽  
pp. 2077-2077
Author(s):  
L.’t Hart-Kerkhoffs ◽  
R. Vermeiren ◽  
L. Jansen ◽  
T. Doreleijers
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Child Molesters ◽  
Parent Report ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offenders ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Dutch Child

BackgroundJuvenile sex offending all too often is the reason of public commotion and concern. About 20% of all rapes and 20–50% of cases of child abuse are perpetrated by juveniles. However little is known on the psychiatric characteristics and recidivism rates of these youths. In the present study the prevalence of psychopathology in (subgroups of) juvenile sex offenders and its relation with criminal recidivism two to four years later were investigated.MethodsSemi-structured psychiatric interviews (K-SADS-PL) and a parent-report questionnaire (CSBQ) were carried out with 106 adolescent sex offenders (mean age 15.0 ± 1.5 years, 60 group offenders, 27 solo rapists, and 19 child molesters) referred to the Dutch child protection agency and juvenile justice institutions. Recidivism was ascertained from registration systems.ResultsThree quarters of juvenile sex offenders met criteria for at least one psychiatric disorder and comorbidity was found in more than half of the subjects. Child molesters showed the highest rates of internalizing disorders and showed most pronounced autism spectrum disorder core symptomatology. Forty percent of juvenile sex offenders had committed multiple sexual offenses, but none recidivated sexually within the 2–4 years after the study. Compared to one time sex offenders, multiple sex offenders were higher in DBD and anxiety disorder.ConclusionChild and adolescent psychiatric care should be given to juvenile sex offenders, with particular attention to multiple sex offenders and child molesters. However, the predictive value of psychopathology for sexual recidivism remains unclear and warrants further research.

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

The Evaluation of Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations

2019 ◽  
pp. 217-224
Author(s):  
William T. O’Donohue ◽  
Olga Cirlugea ◽  
Catalina Vechiu
Keyword(s):  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexually Violent

Risk communication in sexually violent predator hearings

2009 ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a
Author(s):  
Sarah Scott ◽  
Brett Gilcrist ◽  
Nicole Thurston ◽  
Matthew T. Huss
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexually Violent
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