scholarly journals Regression to the mean in latent change score models: an example involving breastfeeding and intelligence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Sorjonen ◽  
Gustav Nilsonne ◽  
Michael Ingre ◽  
Bo Melin
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Change Score ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Intergenerational Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Latent Change Score ◽  
Child Intelligence

Latent change score models are often used to study change over time in observational data. However, latent change score models may be susceptible to regression to the mean. In the present study, we investigate regression to the mean in the case of breastfeeding and intelligence of children. Earlier observational studies have identified a positive association between breastfeeding and child intelligence, even when adjusting for maternal intelligence. Here, we used latent change score modeling to analyze intergenerational change in intelligence, both from mothers to children and backward from children to mothers, in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) dataset (N = 6283). When analyzing change from mothers to children, breastfeeding was found to have a positive association with intergenerational change in intelligence, whereas when analyzing backward change from children to mothers, a negative association was found. These discrepant findings highlight a hidden flexibility in the analytical space and call into question the reliability of earlier studies of breastfeeding and intelligence using observational data.

scholarly journals Dangers of including outcome at baseline as a covariate in latent change score models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Sorjonen ◽  
Gustav Nilsonne ◽  
Bo Melin
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Change Score ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Equation Modelling ◽  
Measuring Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Latent Change Score ◽  
Matrix Reasoning

Latent change score modelling is a version of structural equation modelling for measuring change between measurements. It seems quite common to regress change on the initial value included in the calculation of the change score (i.e. ΔY (= Y2 – Y1) is regressed on Y1). However, similarly as in simpler regression analyses, this procedure may make findings susceptible to the influence of regression to the mean. This suspicion was verified in the present simulations. An empirical application, including re-analyses of previously published data, indicated that previously claimed reciprocal promoting effects of vocabulary and matrix reasoning on each other’s longitudinal development may actually be due to regression to the mean. Researchers are recommended not to regress change on the initial value included in the calculation of the change score when employing latent change score modelling, or at least to verify findings with analyses omitting this parameter.

scholarly journals A study of stellar orbit fractions: simulated IllustrisTNG galaxies compared to CALIFA observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 489 (1) ◽  
pp. 842-854 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dandan Xu ◽  
Ling Zhu ◽  
Robert Grand ◽  
Volker Springel ◽  
Shude Mao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Mass Range ◽  
Stellar Mass ◽  
Model Uncertainties ◽  
Massive Galaxies ◽  
Hubble Sequence ◽  
Galaxy Sample ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Stellar Orbit

ABSTRACT Motivated by the recently discovered kinematic ‘Hubble sequence’ shown by the stellar orbit-circularity distribution of 260 CALIFA galaxies, we make use of a comparable galaxy sample at z = 0 with a stellar mass range of $M_{*}/\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\in [10^{9.7},\, 10^{11.4}]$ selected from the IllustrisTNG simulation and study their stellar orbit compositions in relation to a number of other fundamental galaxy properties. We find that the TNG100 simulation broadly reproduces the observed fractions of different orbital components and their stellar mass dependences. In particular, the mean mass dependences of the luminosity fractions for the kinematically warm and hot orbits are well reproduced within model uncertainties of the observed galaxies. The simulation also largely reproduces the observed peak and trough features at $M_{*}\approx 1\rm {-}2\times 10^{10}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ in the mean distributions of the cold- and hot-orbit fractions, respectively, indicating fewer cooler orbits and more hotter orbits in both more- and less-massive galaxies beyond such a mass range. Several marginal disagreements are seen between the simulation and observations: the average cold-orbit (counter-rotating) fractions of the simulated galaxies below (above) $M_{*}\approx 6\times 10^{10}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ are systematically higher than the observational data by $\lesssim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (absolute orbital fraction); the simulation also seems to produce more scatter for the cold-orbit fraction and less so for the non-cold orbits at any given galaxy mass. Possible causes that stem from the adopted heating mechanisms are discussed.

Is Speed of Onset of Anti-anxiety Efficacy with Pregabalin Influenced by Starting Dose?

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (S1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
B. Herman ◽  
F. Mandel
Keyword(s):  
Dose Response ◽  
Change Score ◽  
Early Improvement ◽  
Response Effect ◽  
Starting Dose ◽  
Dsm Iv ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Dose Response Effect ◽  
Titration Schedule ◽  
Speed Of Onset

Objective:There appears to be no dose-response effect for pregabalin at doses of 300-600 mg, and a modest dose-response effect in the range of 150-300 mg. The goal of the current investigation was to determine the effect of the starting dose on the speed of onset of anxiolytic efficacy.Methods:Data were analyzed from 7 trials of outpatients with DSM-IV GAD and a HAM-A total score ≥18. Starting doses of pregabalin ranged from 100 mg (N=301) or 150 mg (N=104), to 200 mg (N=167) and 300 mg (N=388). Assessment of early improvement included the HAM-A total score and CGI-Severity and Improvement scores.Results:The mean Week 1 HAM-A change score was similar for a starting dose of 200 mg/d with no titration (-8.24) when compared to patients who started on 200 mg/d and then titrated up to 400 mg/d on Day 4 (-8.64). The mean Week 1 HAM-A change score was somewhat higher for patients started on 300 mg/d, and then titrated to 450 mg/d on Day 4/5 (-8.84) when compared to patients started on a lower (100/150 mg/d) dose and titrated on Day 5 to 400/450 mg/d (-7.32). Starting on a dose of 300 mg/d with no titration resulted in an intermediate Week 1 change score (-7.87). The interaction of starting dose and titration schedule with baseline anxiety severity will be summarized in detail.Conclusion:The initial dose of pregabalin appears to have only a weak effect on the speed of onset of anxiolytic improvement.

Heart Rate and Neurological Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Targeted Temperature Management

2020 ◽  
pp. 088506662098250
Author(s):  
Chad M. Conner ◽  
William H. Perucki ◽  
Andre Gabriel ◽  
David M. O’Sullivan ◽  
Antonio B. Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Targeted Temperature Management ◽  
Temperature Management ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Neurologic Outcomes ◽  
Resuscitation Guidelines ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction: There is a paucity of data evaluating the impact of heart rate (HR) during Targeted Temperature Management (TTM) and neurologic outcomes. Current resuscitation guidelines do not specify a HR goal during TTM. We sought to determine the relationship between HR and neurologic outcomes in a single-center registry dataset. Methods: We retrospectively studied 432 consecutive patients who completed TTM (33°C) after cardiac arrest from 2008 to 2017. We evaluated the relationship between neurologic outcomes and HR during TTM. Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) at discharge were used to determine neurological recovery. Statistical analysis included chi square, Student’s t-test and Mann-Whitney U. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate the strength of contribution of selected variables on the outcome of interest. Results: Approximately 94,000 HR data points from 432 patients were retrospectively analyzed; the mean HR was 82.17 bpm over the duration of TTM. Favorable neurological outcomes were seen in 160 (37%) patients. The mean HR in the patients with a favorable outcome was lower than the mean HR of those with an unfavorable outcome (79.98 bpm vs 85.67 bpm p < 0.001). Patients with an average HR of 60-91 bpm were 2.4 times more likely to have a favorable neurological outcome compared to than HR’s < 60 or > 91 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61-3.46, p < 0.001). Specifically, mean HR’s in the 73-82 bpm range had the greatest rate of favorable outcomes (OR 3.56, 95% CI 1.95-6.50), p < 0.001. Administration of epinephrine, a history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension all were associated with worse neurological outcomes independent of HR. Conclusion: During TTM, mean HRs between 60-91 showed a positive association with favorable outcomes. It is unclear whether a specific HR should be targeted during TTM or if heart rates between 60-91 bpm might be a sign of less neurological damage.

scholarly journals Are Changes in Personality Traits and Alcohol Use Associated? A Cohort Study Among Young Swiss Men

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Gmel ◽  
Simon Marmet ◽  
Joseph Studer ◽  
Matthias Wicki
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Alcohol Use ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Binge Drinking ◽  
Sensation Seeking ◽  
Change Score ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Direction Of Effects ◽  
Latent Change Score ◽  
Second Wave

Objective: It is well known that certain personality traits are associated with alcohol use. Because less is known about it, we wished to investigate whether changes in alcohol use were longitudinally associated with changes in personality and in which direction the influence or causation might flow.Methods: Data came from the self-reported questionnaire answers of 5,125 young men at two time points during the Cohort study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). Their average ages were 20.0 and 25.4 years old at the first and second wave assessments, respectively. Four personality traits were measured: (a) aggression–hostility; (b) sociability; (c) neuroticism–anxiety; and (d) sensation seeking. Alcohol use was measured by volume (drinks per week) and binge drinking (about 60+ grams per occasion). Cross-lagged panel models and two-wave latent change score models were used.Results: Aggression–hostility, sensation seeking, and sociability were significantly and positively cross-sectionally associated with both alcohol use variables. Drinking volume and these three personality traits bidirectionally predicted each other. Binge drinking was bidirectionally associated with sensation-seeking only, whereas aggression–hostility and sociability only predicted binge drinking, but not vice versa. Changes in alcohol use were significantly positively associated with changes in aggression–hostility, sensation seeking, and sociability. Associations reached small Cohen's effect sizes for sociability and sensation seeking, but not for aggression–hostility. Associations with neuroticism–anxiety were mostly not significant.Conclusion: The direction of effects confirmed findings from other studies, and the association between changes in personality and alcohol use support the idea that prevention programs should simultaneously target both.

scholarly journals Bivariate Latent-Change-Score Analysis of Peer Relations From Early Childhood to Adolescence: Leading or Lagging Indicators of Psychopathology

2021 ◽  
pp. 216770262096593
Author(s):  
Brent I. Rappaport ◽  
Joshua J. Jackson ◽  
Diana J. Whalen ◽  
David Pagliaccio ◽  
Joan L. Luby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Childhood ◽  
Peer Victimization ◽  
Peer Relations ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Social Withdrawal ◽  
Externalizing Symptoms ◽  
Change Score ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Score Analysis ◽  
Latent Change Score

Understanding longitudinal associations between problematic peer relations and psychopathology is needed to inform public health. Three models have been proposed: Poor peer relations (a) lead or are a risk factor for psychopathology, (b) lag or are a consequence of psychopathology, or (c) both lead and lag psychopathology. Another model is that poor peer relations lead or lag psychopathology depending on the developmental period. To test these models, youths’ peer relations and clinical symptoms were assessed up to six times between ages 3 and 11 in 306 children. Bivariate latent-change-score models tested leading and lagging longitudinal relationships between children’s peer relations (peer victimization/rejection, peer-directed aggression, social withdrawal, prosocial behavior) and psychopathology (depression, anxiety, and externalizing symptoms). Peer victimization/rejection was a leading indicator of depression from early childhood into preadolescence. Peer-directed aggression was a leading indicator of externalizing symptoms (in late childhood).

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