scholarly journals Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-203
Author(s):  
Arshad Ashraf ◽  
Ghani Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

scholarly journals Climate change and reservoir sedimentation implications for irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin Irrigation System in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 126967
Author(s):  
Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad ◽  
Jorge L. Peña-Arancibia ◽  
Yingying Yu ◽  
Joel P. Stewart ◽  
Geoff M. Podger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Reservoir Sedimentation ◽  
Basin Irrigation

Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge & Discharge in Water Scarce Region: A Case Study of the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural Region of Oman.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alaba Boluwade ◽  
Asma Al-Mamani ◽  
Amna Alruheili ◽  
Ali Al-Maktoumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Region ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p> </p><p>*Correspondence: [email protected]</p><p><strong>Abstract: </strong>The primary objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge using the 3D numerical-based HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model in the Ubar/ Shisr Agricultural region in South of Oman. This region has multi-million US dollar irrigated agriculture project purposely developed for the food security of the country. Excessive abstraction of groundwater for irrigation use (using the center pivot irrigation system) has contributed to the “drying-up” of several groundwater wells located in this area. Therefore, there is an urgent need to characterize the long-term sustainability of this agricultural project under a changing climate. HGS model was calibrated on both steady and transient states using selected monitoring wells located within the study area (approximately 980-km<sup>2</sup>). The coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) for the steady-state performance was 0.93 while the transient state performances correctly reproduced the seasonality for each monitoring well. A transient-based calibrated version of the HGS model, using 30-year historical observations (1980-2018) was termed “Reference” while model configurations were developed for the immediate climatic projection (period: 2020 – 2039) based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): - RPC4.5 and RCP8.5 extracted from the World Bank Knowledge portal. These two configured models (scenarios) were evaluated for monthly transient simulations (2020-2039). From the total hydraulic head (THH) fluctuations standpoint, there were reductions when compared with “Reference” for all the scenarios with up to 20% THH reductions for groundwater well levels under persistent seasonal agricultural activities. This study is very important in quantifying the trade-offs and synergies involved between sustainable water management and food security initiatives, especially for an arid climate.</p><p>Keywords: groundwater recharge; climate change, hydrogeologic modeling; Sultanate of Oman</p>

scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 730
Author(s):  
Waqas Ul Hussan ◽  
Muhammad Khurram Shahzad ◽  
Frank Seidel ◽  
Anna Costa ◽  
Franz Nestmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
The Impact

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

scholarly journals A Simplified Water Accounting Procedure to Assess Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for Agriculture across Different European River Basins

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Hunink ◽  
Gijs Simons ◽  
Sara Suárez-Almiñana ◽  
Abel Solera ◽  
Joaquín Andreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Water Accounting

European agriculture and water policies require accurate information on climate change impacts on available water resources. Water accounting, that is a standardized documentation of data on water resources, is a useful tool to provide this information. Pan-European data on climate impacts do not recognize local anthropogenic interventions in the water cycle. Most European river basins have a specific toolset that is understood and used by local experts and stakeholders. However, these local tools are not versatile. Thus, there is a need for a common approach that can be understood by multi-fold users to quantify impact indicators based on local data and that can be used to synthesize information at the European level. Then, policies can be designed with the confidence that underlying data are backed-up by local context and expert knowledge. This work presents a simplified water accounting framework that allows for a standardized examination of climate impacts on water resource availability and use across multiple basins. The framework is applied to five different river basins across Europe. Several indicators are extracted that explicitly describe green water fluxes versus blue water fluxes and impacts on agriculture. The examples show that a simplified water accounting framework can be used to synthesize basin-level information on climate change impacts which can support policymaking on climate adaptation, water resources and agriculture.

scholarly journals Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 191957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽  
Asif Khan ◽  
Tahir Ali Akbar ◽  
Quazi K. Hassan ◽  
Asim Jahangir Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

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