scholarly journals Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 283-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Wendell V. Tangborn ◽  
Craig S. Lingle
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
South Central

AbstractThe response of glaciers to changing climate is explored with an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach, in which global simulations are downscaled with an Arctic MM5 regional model which provides temperature and precipitation inputs to a glacier mass-balance model. The mass balances of Hubbard and Bering Glaciers, south-central Alaska, USA, are simulated for October 1994–September 2004. The comparisons of the mass-balance simulations using dynamically-downscaled vs observed temperature and precipitation data are in reasonably good agreement, when calibration is used to minimize systematic biases in the MM5 downscalings. The responses of the Hubbard (a large tidewater glacier) and Bering (a large surge-type glacier) mass balances to the future climate scenario CCSM3 A1B, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ future climate in which fossil and non-fossil fuels are assumed to be used in balance, are also investigated for the period October 2010–September 2018. Hubbard and Bering Glaciers are projected to have increased accumulation, particularly on the upper glaciers, and greater ablation, particularly on the lower glaciers. The annual net balance for the entire Bering Glacier is projected to be significantly more negative, on average (–2.0ma–1w.e., compared to –1.3ma–1w.e. during the hindcast), and for the entire Hubbard Glacier somewhat less positive (0.3ma–1w.e. compared to 0.4 ma–1w.e. during the hindcast). The Hubbard Glacier mass balances include an estimated iceberg calving flux of 6.5 km3 a–1, which is assumed to remain constant.

scholarly journals Application of a mass-balance model to a Himalayan glacier

1999 ◽  
Vol 45 (151) ◽  
pp. 559-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rijan Bhakta Kayastha ◽  
Tetsuo Ohata ◽  
Yutaka Ageta
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractA mass-balance model based on the energy balance at the snow or ice surface is formulated, with particular attention paid to processes affecting absorption of radiation. The model is applied to a small glacier, Glacier AX010 in the Nepalese Himalaya, and tests of its mass-balance sensitivity to input and climatic parameters are carried out. Calculated and observed area-averaged mass balances of the glacier during summer 1978 (June-September) show good agreement, namely -0.44 and -0.46 m w.e., respectively.Results show the mass balance is strongly sensitive to snow or ice albedo, to the effects of screening by surrounding mountain walls, to areal variations in multiple reflection between clouds and the glacier surface, and to thin snow covers which alter the surface albedo. In tests of the sensitivity of the mass balance to seasonal values of climatic parameters, the mass balance is found to be strongly sensitive to summer air temperature and precipitation but only weakly sensitive to relative humidity.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfried Hagg ◽  
Elisabeth Mayr ◽  
Birgit Mannig ◽  
Mark Reyers ◽  
David Schubert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Tian Shan

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.

scholarly journals Forcing a Distributed Glacier Mass Balance Model with the Regional Climate Model REMO. Part I: Climate Model Evaluation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1589-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Frank Paul ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model

Abstract A coupling interface between the regional climate model REMO and a distributed glacier mass balance model is presented in a series of two papers. The first part describes and evaluates the reanalysis-driven regional climate simulation that is used to force a mass balance model for two glaciers of the Swiss mass balance network. The detailed validation of near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation for the European Alps shows that the basic spatial and temporal patterns of all three parameters are reproduced by REMO. Compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset, the Alpine mean temperature is underestimated by 0.34°C. Annual precipitation shows a positive bias of 17% (30%) with respect to the uncorrected gridded ALP-IMP (CRU) dataset. A number of important and systematic model biases arise in high-elevation regions, namely, a negative temperature bias in winter, a bias of seasonal precipitation (positive or negative, depending on gridbox altitude and season), and an underestimation of springtime and overestimation of summertime global radiation. These can be expected to have a strong effect on the simulated glacier mass balance. It is recommended to account for these shortcomings by applying correction procedures before using the RCM output for subsequent mass balance modeling. Despite the obvious model deficiencies in high-elevation regions, the new interface broadens the scope of application of glacier mass balance models and will allow for a straightforward assessment of future climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of superimposed ice on the mass balance of an Arctic glacier under scenarios of future climate change

2005 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 277-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Wright ◽  
Jemma Wadham ◽  
Martin Siegert ◽  
Adrian Luckman ◽  
Jack Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Explicit Calculation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA surface-energy/mass-balance model with an explicit calculation of meltwater refreezing and superimposed ice formation is applied to midre Lovénbreen, Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The model is run with meteorological measurements to represent the present climate, and run with scenarios taken from global climate model predictions based on the IS92a emissions scenario to represent future climates. Model results indicate that superimposed ice accounts for on average 37% of the total net accumulation under present conditions. The model is found to be highly sensitive to changes in the mean annual air temperature and much less sensitive to changes in the total annual precipitation. A 0.5˚C decade–1 temperature increase is predicted to cause an average mass-balance change of –0.43 ma–1, while a 2% decade–1 increase in precipitation will result in only a +0.02 ma–1 change in mass balance. An increase in temperature results in a significant decrease in the size of the accumulation area at midre Lovénbreen and hence a similar decrease in the net volume of superimposed ice. The model predicts, however, that the relative importance of superimposed ice will increase to account for >50% of the total accumulation by 2050. The results show that the refreezing of meltwater and in particular the formation of superimposed ice make an important positive contribution to the mass balance of midre Lovénbreen under present conditions and will play a vital future role in slowing down the response of glacier mass balance to climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1105-1128 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Shea ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
P. Wagnon ◽  
C. Vincent ◽  
S. Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Glacier Change ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Koshi Basin ◽  
End Members

Abstract. In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century.

scholarly journals Relating glacier mass balance to meteorological data by using a seasonal sensitivity characteristic

2000 ◽  
Vol 46 (152) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
B. K. Reichert
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Sensitivity Characteristic

AbstractWe propose to quantify the climate sensitivity of the mean specific balance B of a glacier by a seasonal sensitivity characteristic (SSC). The SSC gives the dependence of B on monthly anomalies in temperature and precipitation. It is calculated from a mass-balance model. We show and discuss examples for Franz-Josef Glacier (New Zealand), Nigardsbreen (Norway), Hintereisferner (Austria), Peyto Glacier (Canadian Rockies), Abramov Glacier (Kirghizstan) and White Glacier (Canadian Arctic). With regard to the climate sensitivity of B, the SSCs clearly show that summer temperature is the most important factor for glaciers in a dry climate. For glaciers in a wetter climate, spring and fall temperatures also make a significant contribution to the overall sensitivity. The SSC is a 2 × 12 matrix. Multiplying it with monthly perturbations of temperature and precipitation for a particular year yields an estimate of the balance for that year. We show that, with this technique, mass-balance series can be (re)constructed from long meteorological records or from output of atmospheric models.

scholarly journals Atmosphere Driven Mass-Balance Sensitivity of Halji Glacier, Himalayas

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 426
Author(s):  
Anselm Arndt ◽  
Dieter Scherer ◽  
Christoph Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Monsoon Index ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Precipitation Changes

The COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) was employed to investigate the relationship between the variability and sensitivity of the mass balance record of the Halji glacier, in the Himalayas, north-western Nepal, over a 40 year period since October 1981 to atmospheric drivers. COSIPY was forced with the atmospheric reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land that has been statistically downscaled to the location of an automatic weather station at the Halji glacier. Glacier mass balance simulations with air temperature and precipitation perturbations were executed and teleconnections investigated. For the mass-balance years 1982 to 2019, a mean annual glacier-wide climatic mass balance of −0.48 meters water equivalent per year (m w.e. a−1) with large interannual variability (standard deviation 0.71 m w.e. a−1) was simulated. This variability is dominated by temperature and precipitation patterns. The Halji glacier is mostly sensitive to summer temperature and monsoon-related precipitation perturbations, which is reflected in a strong correlation with albedo. According to the simulations, the climate sensitivity with respect to either positive or negative air temperature and precipitation changes is nonlinear: A mean temperature increase (decrease) of 1 K would result in a change of the glacier-wide climatic mass balance of −1.43 m w.e. a−1 (0.99m w.e. a−1) while a precipitation increase (decrease) of 10% would cause a change of 0.45m w.e. a−1 (−0.59m w.e. a−1). Out of 22 circulation and monsoon indexes, only the Webster and Yang Monsoon index and Polar/Eurasia index provide significant correlations with the glacier-wide climatic mass balance. Based on the strong dependency of the climatic mass balance from summer season conditions, we conclude that the snow–albedo feedback in summer is crucial for the Halji glacier. This finding is also reflected in the correlation of albedo with the Webster and Yang Monsoon index.

scholarly journals Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5375-5432 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Shea ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
P. Wagnon ◽  
C. Vincent ◽  
S. Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Glacier Change ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
End Members ◽  
Historical Model

Abstract. In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to simulate historical and future glacier change in the Everest region of Nepal. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded APHRODITE data, and validated against independent station observations from the EVK2CNR network, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely-sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Kosi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. Scenarios of future climate change, based on CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 end members, suggest that glaciers in the Everest region will continue to lose mass through the 21st century. Glaciers in the basin are concentrated between 5000 and 6000 m of elevation, and are thus expected to be sensitive to changes in temperature and equilibrium line altitude (ELA). Glacier volume reductions between −35 to −62% are possible by 2050, and sustained temperature increases to 2100 may result in total glacier volume losses of between −73 and −96%.

scholarly journals Application of a mass-balance model to a Himalayan glacier

1999 ◽  
Vol 45 (151) ◽  
pp. 559-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rijan Bhakta Kayastha ◽  
Tetsuo Ohata ◽  
Yutaka Ageta
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractA mass-balance model based on the energy balance at the snow or ice surface is formulated, with particular attention paid to processes affecting absorption of radiation. The model is applied to a small glacier, Glacier AX010 in the Nepalese Himalaya, and tests of its mass-balance sensitivity to input and climatic parameters are carried out. Calculated and observed area-averaged mass balances of the glacier during summer 1978 (June-September) show good agreement, namely -0.44 and -0.46 m w.e., respectively.Results show the mass balance is strongly sensitive to snow or ice albedo, to the effects of screening by surrounding mountain walls, to areal variations in multiple reflection between clouds and the glacier surface, and to thin snow covers which alter the surface albedo. In tests of the sensitivity of the mass balance to seasonal values of climatic parameters, the mass balance is found to be strongly sensitive to summer air temperature and precipitation but only weakly sensitive to relative humidity.

Predicting glacier mass balance by data assimilation from on-ice cameras

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Landmann ◽  
Christophe Ogier ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Daniel Farinotti
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Average Mass

<p>With the widespread retreat of glaciers, concerns emerge for the availability of water resources. These concerns are largest for future dry spells, when runoff from other sources is low. In this context, mass balance estimates for time horizons from days to weeks might help to better manage water resources in alpine regions. Here, we obtain such estimates from a combined modelling and data assimilation approach. Starting with three glaciers with detailed monitoring in Switzerland, we extrapolate our signal to other unmeasured glaciers in the country.</p><p>For the mass balance modeling, an ensemble of four melt models is tuned to match semi-annual in-situ observations from the Glacier Monitoring Switzerland (GLAMOS) program. With this ensemble, we then infer mass balance for the observed glaciers. Three of the glaciers (Rhonegletscher, Findelgletscher and Glacier de la Plaine Morte) were equipped with on-ice cameras between mid-June and early October 2019. The cameras transmitted 352 daily point mass balance observations which we assimilate into our model results by employing a particle filter.</p><p>To transfer the mass balance information of the three well-observed glaciers to other glaciers in Switzerland, we make use of the strong spatial correlation of cumulative melt. In a workflow here termed “percentile extrapolation method”, first, all glaciers without direct mass balance measurements are calibrated based on geodetic mass balances covering the 1980-2010 period. To reduce the large uncertainty in calibration on geodetic mass changes, we first predict average mass balance model parameters for each glacier with a random forest regressor. Then, we tune these parameters to match the geodetic mass balance in a least squares minimization. As soon as a mass balance climatology for the past has been calculated with this calibration, we determine with which percentiles of this climatology the current year’s mass balance ensemble estimate overlaps at the well-observed glaciers. These percentiles are then extrapolated in space using inverse distance weighting and they are applied to the climatology of unmeasured glaciers. The procedure yields a mass balance estimate at every single day of a year for every Swiss glacier taking into account specific glacier characteristics.</p><p>We compare the assimilated camera mass balances with interpolated measurements from the GLAMOS program. First results indicate that for the annual mass balance, the camera data lower the mean absolute error to 0.19 m water equivalent (w.e.), from 0.36 m w.e for a model prediction without data assimilation. The standard deviation of the prediction ensemble is reduced by 0.37 m w.e. on average. A cross-validation using percentile extrapolation between the glaciers equipped with a camera shows that annual mass balance can be predicted within 0.27 m w.e.. The summer (May to September) melt of other glaciers in the GLAMOS program can be predicted with an absolute error of 0.07m w.e. (model: 0.27 m w.e). Our results indicate that the continuous monitoring of a few selected sites has the potential of strongly improving daily near real-time mass balance estimates at the regional scale.</p>

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