Recent Spatiotemporal Trends in Glacier Snowline Altitude at the End of the Melt Season in the Qilian Mountains, China

Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains, China, play an important role in supplying freshwater to downstream populations, maintaining ecological balance, and supporting economic development on the Tibetan Plateau. Glacier snowline altitude (SLA) at the end of the melt season is an indicator of the Equilibrium line altitude (ELA), and can be used to estimate the mass balance and climate reconstruction. Here, we employ the height zone-area method to determine the SLA at the end of the melt season during the 1989–2018 period using Landsat, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) SLA and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) data. The accuracy of glacier SLA obtained in 1989–2018 after adding MODIS SLA data to the years without Landsat data increased by about 78 m. The difference between the remote-sensing-derived SLA and measured equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is mostly within 50 m, suggesting that the SLA can serve as a proxy for the ELA at the end of the melt season. The SLA of Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains rose from 4690 ± 25 m to 5030 ± 25 m, with an average of 4900 ± 103 m during the 30 year study period. The western, central, eastern sections and the whole range of the Qilian Mountains exhibited an upward trend in SLA during the 30 year study period. The mean glacier SLAs were 4923 ± 137 m, 4864 ± 135 m, 4550 ± 149 m and 4779 ± 149 m for the western, central, eastern sections and the whole range, respectively. From the perspective of spatial distribution, regardless of the different orientation, grid scale and basin scale, the glacier SLA of Qilian Mountains showed an upward trend from 1989 to 2018, and the glacier SLA is in general located at a comparably higher altitude in the southern and western parts of the Qilian Mountains while it is located at a comparably lower altitude in its northern and eastern parts. In an ideal condition, climate sensitivity studies of ELA in Qilian Mountains show that if the summer mean temperature increases (decreases) by 1 °C, then ELA will increase (decrease) by about 102 m. If the annual total solid precipitation increases (decreases) by 10%, then the glacier ELA will decrease (rise) by about 6 m. The summer mean temperature is the main factor affecting the temporal trend of SLA, whereas both summer mean temperature and annual total precipitation influence the spatial change of SLA.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods

Surface runoff from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has dominated recent ice mass loss and is having significant impacts on sea-level rise under global warming. Here, we used two modified degree-day (DD) methods to estimate the runoff of the GrIS during 1950–2200 under the extensions of historical, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Near-surface air temperature and snowfall were obtained from five Earth System Models. We applied new degree-day factors to best match the results of the surface energy and mass balance model, SEMIC, over the whole GrIS in a 21st century simulation. The relative misfits between tuned DD methods and SEMIC during 2050–2089 were 3% (RCP4.5) and 12% (RCP8.5), much smaller than the 30% difference between untuned DD methods and SEMIC. Equilibrium line altitude evolution, runoff-elevation feedback, and ice mask evolution were considered in the future simulations to 2200. The ensemble mean cumulative runoff increasing over the GrIS was equivalent to sea-level rises of 6 ± 2 cm (RCP4.5) and 9 ± 3 cm (RCP8.5) by 2100 relative to the period 1950–2005, and 13 ± 4 cm (RCP4.5) and 40 ± 5 cm (RCP8.5) by 2200. Runoff-elevation feedback produced runoff increases of 5 ± 2% (RCP4.5) and 6 ± 2% (RCP8.5) by 2100, and 12 ± 4% (RCP4.5) and 15 ± 5% (RCP8.5) by 2200. Two sensitivity experiments showed that increases of 150% or 200%, relative to the annual mean amount of snowfall in 2080–2100, in the post-2100 period would lead to 10% or 20% more runoff under RCP4.5 and 5% or 10% under RCP8.5 because faster ice margin retreat and ice sheet loss under RCP8.5 dominate snowfall increases and ice elevation feedbacks.

The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

Glaciers and ice caps are thinning and retreating along the entire Andes ridge, and drivers of this mass loss vary between the different climate zones. The southern part of the Andes (Wet Andes) has the highest abundance of glaciers in number and size, and a proper understanding of ice dynamics is important to assess their evolution. In this contribution, we apply the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) to the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in the Chilean Lake District (40∘ S, 72∘ W; Wet Andes) to reproduce its current state and to project its evolution until the end of the 21st century under different global warming scenarios. First, we create a model spin-up using observed surface mass balance data on the south-eastern catchment, extrapolating them to the whole ice cap using an aspect-dependent parameterization. This spin-up is able to reproduce the most important present-day glacier features. Based on the spin-up, we then run the model 80 years into the future, forced by projected surface temperature anomalies from different global climate models under different radiative pathway scenarios to obtain estimates of the ice cap's state by the end of the 21st century. The mean projected ice volume losses are 56±16 % (RCP2.6), 81±6 % (RCP4.5), and 97±2 % (RCP8.5) with respect to the ice volume estimated by radio-echo sounding data from 2013. We estimate the uncertainty of our projections based on the spread of the results when forcing with different global climate models and on the uncertainty associated with the variation of the equilibrium line altitude with temperature change. Considering our results, we project a considerable deglaciation of the Chilean Lake District by the end of the 21st century.

DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION OF ICE APRONS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE IN THE MONT-BLANC MASSIF (WESTERN EUROPEAN ALPS)

Ice Apron (IA) is a poorly studied ice feature, commonly existing in all the world’s major mountain regions. This study aims to map the locations of the IAs in the Mont Blanc massif (MBM), making use of the very high-resolution optical satellite images from 2001, 2012 and 2019. 423 IAs were identified and accurately delineated in the MBM on the images from 2019, and their topographic characteristics were studied. We generated our own Digital Elevation Model (DEM) at 4 m resolution since the freely available products predominantly suffer from significant inconsistencies, especially in steep mountain areas. Results show that most IAs exist at elevations above the regional Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA), on steep slopes, on concave surfaces, on northern and southern aspects and on the most rugged terrains. They are also commonly associated with steep slope glaciers as 85% of them occur on these glaciers’ headwalls. A comparison between 2001 and 2019 shows that IAs have lost around 29% of their area over a period of 18 years. This is significant and the rate of area loss is very alarming in comparison with the larger glacier bodies. We also studied the effect of topographic parameters on the area loss. We found that topographic factors like slope, aspect, curvature, elevation and Terrain Ruggedness Index (TRI) strongly influence the rate of area loss of IAs.

Alpine relief limited by glacial occupation time

Glaciers exert a major control on the shape of mountain topography. They tend to reduce relief above and scour troughs below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). While many studies report this dichotomy, relief-limiting effects are controversial due to difficulties in quantifying key factors such as the initial topography, the timing of glacial occupancy, or rock uplift counteracting glacial erosion. Consequently, effectivity and degree of glacial erosion remain ambiguous. In geologically and climatically well-investigated parts of the European Central Alps, our calculation of glacial occupation time (GOT) from Quaternary ELA variations allows the quantification of gradual topographic modifications generated by the cumulative impact of cirque erosion over the Quaternary. We show that under low uplift, relief is effectively limited by glacial and periglacial headwall retreat, leading to a decline in topographic relief as GOT increases. Conversely, higher uplift rates seem to induce more persistent valley glaciation, triggering a positive feedback loop in which steep slopes are protected against erosion and relief increases.

Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen

Tunabreen is a 26-km long tidewater glacier. It is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past hundred years. We have modelled the evolution of this glacier with a Minimal Glacier Model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving and surging are parameterized. The model geometry consists of a flow band to which three tributaries supply mass. The calving rate is set to the mean observed value for the period 2012–2019, and kept constant. For the past 120 years, a smooth Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) history is reconstructed by finding the best possible match between observed and simulated glacier length. There is a modest correlation between this ELA history and meteorological observations from Longyearbyen. The simulated glacier retreat is in good agreement with observations. Runs with and without surging show that the effect of surging on the long term glacier evolution is limited. Due to the low surface slope and associated strong height -mass balance feedback, Tunabreen is very sensitive to changes in ELA. For a constant future ELA equal to the reconstructed value for 2020, the glacier front will retreat by 8 km during the coming hundred years. For an increase of the ELA of 2 m per year, the retreat is projected to be 13 km and Tunabreen becomes a land-based glacier around 2100. The calving rate is an important parameter: increasing its value by 50 % has about the same effect as a 50 m increase in the ELA, the corresponding equilibrium glacier length being 18 km (as compared to 25.8 km in the reference state). Response times vary from 150 to 400 years, depending on the forcing and on the state of the glacier (tidewater or land-based).

Glacier Retreat in Iceland Mapped from Space: Time Series Analysis of Geodata from 1941 to 2018

In recent decades, glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica have shown increasingly rapid rates of mass loss and retreat of the ice front, which is associated with climatic and oceanic warming. Due to their maritime location, Icelandic glaciers are sensitive to short-term climate fluctuations and have shown rapid rates of retreat and mass loss over the last decade. In this study, historical maps (1941–1949) of the US Army Map Service (AMS series C762) and optical satellite imagery (Landsat 1, Landsat 5, Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2) are used to study the Langjökull, Hofsjökull and Vatnajökull ice caps. By the help of the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), the glacier terminus fluctuations of the ice caps from 1973 to 2018 and the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) from 1973 to 2018 are analyzed. The results are compared with climate data, especially with mean summer temperatures and winter precipitation. Due to the negative temperature gradient with increasing altitude, bivariate histograms are generated, showing the glaciated area per altitude zone and time, and providing a prediction of the future development until 2050 and beyond. The results indicate that Langjökull, Hofsjökull and Vatnajökull are retreating and advancing over the study period in correlation with the mean summer temperature, with a steady decrease over time being the clearest and most significant trend. The lower parts of the glaciers, thus, will probably disappear during the next decades. This behaviour is also evident by an exceptional increase of the ELA observed on all three glaciers, which leads to a reduction of the accumulation zone.

Modeling the retreat of the Aneto Glacier (Spanish Pyrenees) since the Little Ice Age, and its accelerated shrinkage over recent decades

The Aneto, located on the Maladeta Massif (Central Pyrenees), is the largest glacier of the Pyrenees. The glacier is 675 m long, occupies an area of 48.64 ha and has a maximum altitude of 3269 m. In this study, we present a detailed area, volume, ice thickness, and Equilibrium Line Altitude reconstruction of the glacier for different periods (LIA, 1957, 1983, 2000, 2006, 2015, and 2017) and analyze its retreat. To estimate the glacier extent during the LIA, the moraines were mapped by using photo interpretation techniques whereas for the recent stages digital satellite images and aerial photographs were used. Moreover, we estimated the topography of the glacier using a simple steady-state model that assumes a perfectly plastic ice rheology, which allowed reconstructing the theoretical ice profiles of the glacier. To reconstruct the ice surface, a digital elevation model was created and combined with the bedrock topography in order to obtain the ice thickness of each stage. The results of the study reveal a considerable retreat of the Aneto Glacier since the LIA. The length of the glacier has reduced from 1970 to 675 m from LIA to2017, and its tongue has retreated from 2385 to 3029 m a.s.l. Furthermore, the glaciated area has been reduced from 245 to 48.64 ha from LIA to 2017 and the ELA has risen from 2919 to 3139 m a.s.l. The data obtained indicates that in the LIA–2017 period the glacier volume has been reduced from 82.57 m × 106 m3 to 3.48 m × 106 m3 and the maximum ice thickness from 95 to 27m. We also reconstructed the climatic conditions, showing an increase in temperature of ~1.14°C from LIA to 2017. These data reveal a vast retreat of the glacier since the LIA, which has accelerated since the 1980’s and even more since the year 2000.