Modelling the current and future potential distribution of Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green, 1908) a pest of importance for Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Rodríguez-Ruiz ◽  
ALEJANDRO JUÁREZ AGIS ◽  
Silberio García-Sánchez ◽  
Olivier-Salome Branly ◽  
Zeferino-Torres Jacqueline ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Yucatan Peninsula ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Maconellicoccus Hirsutus ◽  
Yucatán Peninsula ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Objective: to model the current and future potential distribution of Maconellicoccus hirsutus in order to identify changes in its distribution in Mexico.Design/methodology/approach: to select a final model, 2,154 occurrence points were used and MaxEnt with the help of the Kuenm package implemented in Rstudio. It was projected throughout Mexico, using six possible climate change scenarios with a proposed threshold (0.02).Results: a potential present surface of 1,159,335.5 km2 was found, corresponding to 59 % of the territory, indicating a greater suitability in coastal areas including the Gulf of Mexico, the entire Pacific slope, and the Yucatan peninsula. All scenarios show an increase in the potential area of up to 1,423,890.18 km2 in 2050 and 1,537,591.19 km2 in 2070.Study limitations/implications: predictions for 2050 and 2070 will depend on the climatic conditions that take place at  the time, so specific studies in each region should be carried out, considering that the species may have adaptability to new climates which would imply constant monitoring. If an increase is observed in the distribution areas, the speciescould affect not only agricultural areas but also forest ecosystems.Findings/conclusions: the projections made for scenarios 2050 and 2070 show an increase in the area of infestation andenvironmental suitability for pink cochineal, mainly in the states of the Pacific watershed, the Yucatan peninsula, and theGulf of Mexico, with these areas being the most vulnerable.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

scholarly journals Current and future potential distribution and identification of suitable areas for the conservation of Cedrela odorata L. in the Yucatan Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-408
Author(s):  
Gyorgy E. Manzanilla-Quijada ◽  
◽  
Eduardo J. Treviño-Garza ◽  
Oscar A. Aguirre-Calderón ◽  
José I. Yerena-Yamallel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Yucatan Peninsula ◽  
Cedrela Odorata ◽  
Yucatán Peninsula ◽  
Future Potential

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Diptera: Tephritidae)

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.E.A. Stephens ◽  
D.J. Kriticos ◽  
A. Leriche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cold Stress ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Bactrocera Dorsalis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Oriental Fruit Fly ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalisand many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX™ was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalisunder current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions forB. dorsalisin the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range forB. dorsalisis projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution ofB. dorsalisis striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

scholarly journals The relationship between forest fragmentation and the potential geographical distribution of psittacids (Psittaciformes: Psittacidae) in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1470
Author(s):  
Alexis Herminio Plasencia Vázquez ◽  
Griselda Escalona Segura ◽  
Yarelys Ferrer Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Forest Fragmentation ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Yucatan Peninsula ◽  
Quintana Roo ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Yucatán Peninsula ◽  
Amazona Oratrix ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Relationship

Parrots are a seriously threatened group because of the illegal pet trade, their habitat fragmentation and the destruction of tropical forests. This study aimed to determine the relationship between forest fragmentation and the geographic potential distribution of parrot species in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The research was carried out in the Mexican portion of the Yucatan Peninsula Biotic region, which includes the states of Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. We worked with the eight species of psittacids that inhabit the selected areas: Eupsittula nana, Amazona albifrons, Amazona xantholora, Amazona autumnalis, Pionus senilis, Pyrilia haematotis, Amazona oratrix and Amazona farinosa. For these species, we used the potential geographical distribution maps that were obtained through the Maximum Entropy algorithm, published in 2014. To measure the levels of forest fragmentation in the Peninsula, we employed the land use and vegetation maps from series IV (2007-2010) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. We calculated different landscape metrics at 100 sites randomly distributed within the predicted presence and absence areas for the species. Multivariate methods were used to shorten dimensionality in the analysis, as well as to explore the observed patterns. We did not find any pattern regarding the number of variables that contribute to the logistic regression models (LR) and the size of the parrots’ potential geographical distribution area within the Peninsula. For Pyrilia haematotis and Amazona oratrix, the fragmentation variables used did not seem to have any relationship with their potential geographical distribution in the Peninsula (intersection, Pr < 0.0001). Only for Eupsittula nana, Amazona xantholora and Pionus senilis, we found that the mean patch edge, the mean shape index and the mean perimeter-area ratio were important to determine their potential distribution patterns, respectively; and, in general, the variables indicated the preferences of these parrots to occupy larger habitat patches. Parrots must be given a special care and protection within the states of Campeche and Quintana Roo, since there are areas with high parrot diversity and are importantly affected by human activities. The best recommendation for managers and users of protected areas within the Yucatan Peninsula is that extensive areas of forest should be maintained in order to guarantee the suvival of psittacid populations.

scholarly journals Phylogeography and morphometric variation in the Cinnamon Hummingbird complex: Amazilia rutila (Aves: Trochilidae)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melisa Vázquez-López ◽  
Nandadevi Córtes-Rodríguez ◽  
Sahid M. Robles-Bello ◽  
Alfredo Bueno-Hernández ◽  
Luz E. Zamudio-Beltrán ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Yucatan Peninsula ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Morphometric Variation ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
Yucatán Peninsula ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The Mesoamerican dominion is a biogeographic area of great interest due to its complex topography and distinctive climatic history. This area has a large diversity of habitats, including tropical deciduous forests, which house a large number of endemic species. Here, we assess phylogeographic pattern, genetic and morphometric variation in the Cinnamon Hummingbird complex Amazilia rutila, which prefers habitats in this region. This resident species is distributed along the Pacific coast from Sinaloa—including the Tres Marías Islands in Mexico to Costa Rica, and from the coastal plain of the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico south to Belize. Methods We obtained genetic data from 85 samples of A. rutila, using 4 different molecular markers (mtDNA: ND2, COI; nDNA: ODC, MUSK) on which we performed analyses of population structure (median-joining network, STRUCTURE, FST, AMOVA), Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses, and divergence time estimates. In order to evaluate the historic suitability of environmental conditions, we constructed projection models using past scenarios (Pleistocene periods), and conducted Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSP) to visualize changes in population sizes over time. To analyze morphometric variation, we took measurements of 5 morphological traits from 210 study skins. We tested for differences between sexes, differences among geographic groups (defined based on genetic results), and used PCA to examine the variation in multivariate space. Results Using mtDNA, we recovered four main geographic groups: the Pacific coast, the Tres Marías Islands, the Chiapas region, and the Yucatán Peninsula together with Central America. These same groups were recovered by the phylogenetic results based on the multilocus dataset. Demography based on BSP results showed constant population size over time throughout the A. rutila complex and within each geographic group. Ecological niche model projections onto past scenarios revealed no drastic changes in suitable conditions, but revealed some possible refuges. Morphometric results showed minor sexual dimorphism in this species and statistically significant differences between geographic groups. The Tres Marías Islands population was the most differentiated, having larger body size than the remaining groups. Conclusions The best supported evolutionary hypothesis of diversification within this group corresponds to geographic isolation (limited gene flow), differences in current environmental conditions, and historical habitat fragmentation promoted by past events (Pleistocene refugia). Four well-defined clades comprise the A. rutila complex, and we assess the importance of a taxonomic reevaluation. Our data suggest that both of A. r. graysoni (Tres Marías Islands) and A. r. rutila (Pacific coast) should be considered full species. The other two strongly supported clades are: (a) the Chiapas group (southern Mexico), and (b) the populations from Yucatán Peninsula and Central America. These clades belong to the corallirostris taxon, which needs to be split and properly named.

scholarly journals Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1816
Author(s):  
Gerson Meza Mori ◽  
Elgar Barboza Castillo ◽  
Cristóbal Torres Guzmán ◽  
Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez ◽  
Betty K. Guzman Valqui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
High Potential ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Protected Natural Areas ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Sustainable Conservation

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

Present and future potential distribution of the endemic Perote ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus perotensis) under different climate change scenarios

Mammalia ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Arturo García-Domínguez ◽  
Octavio Rafael Rojas-Soto ◽  
Jorge R. Galindo-González ◽  
Alberto González-Romero ◽  
María del Rosario Pineda-López ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ground Squirrel ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Potential

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly,Bactrocera zonata(Diptera: Tephritidae)

2011 ◽  
Vol 102 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.L. Ni ◽  
Z.H. Li ◽  
H.J. Chen ◽  
F.H. Wan ◽  
W.W. Qu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Bactrocera Zonata ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Pest Risk

AbstractBactrocera zonata(Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution ofB. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions,B. zonatawill be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution ofB. zonatawill expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually byB. zonatawere consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. zonataprojected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread ofB. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

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