Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

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MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12072671 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 2671 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

H. Oğuz Çoban ◽

Ömer K. Örücü ◽

E. Seda Arslan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Change Analysis ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Study Results ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Future Potential

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

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Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scaleAulacaspis yasumatsui(Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.4832 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. e4832 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Jiufeng Wei ◽

Qing Zhao ◽

Wanqing Zhao ◽

Hufang Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Management Approach ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

In The Wild

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS),Aulacaspis yasumatsuiTakagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15–20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25–28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

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Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

Kuwait Journal of Science ◽

10.48129/kjs.v48i2.7882 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 48 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽

◽

Omer K. Orucu ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Small Tree ◽

Potential Habitat ◽

Northern Areas ◽

Maxent Modeling ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

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Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

Biodiversity Data Journal ◽

10.3897/bdj.8.e49164 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽

Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Wildlife Conservation ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12897 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Kummu ◽

Matias Heino ◽

Maija Taka ◽

Olli Varis ◽

Daniel Viviroli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Production Areas ◽

Global Food

<p>The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.</p>

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The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Diptera: Tephritidae)

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485307005044 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 97 (4) ◽

pp. 369-378 ◽

Cited By ~ 143

Author(s):

A.E.A. Stephens ◽

D.J. Kriticos ◽

A. Leriche

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cold Stress ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Fruit Fly ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Bactrocera Dorsalis ◽

Potential Range ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Oriental Fruit Fly ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalisand many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX™ was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalisunder current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions forB. dorsalisin the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range forB. dorsalisis projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution ofB. dorsalisis striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

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Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects12100874 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 874

Author(s):

Jinyue Song ◽

Hua Zhang ◽

Ming Li ◽

Wuhong Han ◽

Yuxin Yin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Factors ◽

Solenopsis Invicta ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Fire Ant ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

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Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani10101816 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 1816

Author(s):

Gerson Meza Mori ◽

Elgar Barboza Castillo ◽

Cristóbal Torres Guzmán ◽

Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez ◽

Betty K. Guzman Valqui ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Predictive Modelling ◽

High Potential ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Potential Habitat ◽

Total Potential ◽

Protected Natural Areas ◽

Future Potential ◽

Sustainable Conservation

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

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Present and future potential distribution of the endemic Perote ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus perotensis) under different climate change scenarios

Mammalia ◽

10.1515/mammalia-2013-0077 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

pp. 1-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

José Arturo García-Domínguez ◽

Octavio Rafael Rojas-Soto ◽

Jorge R. Galindo-González ◽

Alberto González-Romero ◽

María del Rosario Pineda-López ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ground Squirrel ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Potential

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Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly,Bactrocera zonata(Diptera: Tephritidae)

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485311000538 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 102 (2) ◽

pp. 173-183 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

W.L. Ni ◽

Z.H. Li ◽

H.J. Chen ◽

F.H. Wan ◽

W.W. Qu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Southern China ◽

Fruit Fly ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Southeastern Australia ◽

Bactrocera Zonata ◽

The Usa ◽

Pest Risk

AbstractBactrocera zonata(Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution ofB. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions,B. zonatawill be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution ofB. zonatawill expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually byB. zonatawere consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. zonataprojected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread ofB. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

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