Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.G. Enting, ◽  
T.M.L. Wigley, ◽  
M. Heimann,
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Industrial Emissions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Ipcc Working Group ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Group 1

Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric CO2

1992 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 407 ◽  
Author(s):  
JA Taylor ◽  
J Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Tropical Rainforests ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

The biosphere plays an important role in determining the sources, sinks, levels and rates of change of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Significant uncertainties remain in estimates of the fluxes of CO2 from biomass burning and deforestation, and uptake and storage of CO2 by the biosphere arising from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Calculation of probable rates of carbon sequestration for the major ecosystem complexes and global 3-D tracer transport model runs indicate the possibility that a significant net CO2 uptake (> 1 Pg C yr-1), a CO2 'fertilisation effect', may be occurring in tropical rainforests, effectively accounting for much of the 'missing sink'. This sink may currently balance much of the CO2 added to the atmosphere from deforestation and biomass burning. Interestingly, CO2 released from biomass burning may itself be playing an important role in enhanced carbon storage by tropical rainforests. This has important implications for predicting future CO2 concentrations. If tropical rainforest destruction continues then much of the CO2 stored as a result of the CO2 'fertilisation effect' will be rereleased to the atmosphere and much of the 'missing sink' will disappear. These effects have not been considered in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Predictions which take account of the combined effects of deforestation, the return of carbon previously stored through the CO2 'fertilisation effect' and the loss of a large proportion of the 'missing sink' as a result of deforestation, would result in much higher predicted concentrations and rates of increase of atmospheric CO2 and, as a consequence, accelerated rates of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change 2021—The Physical Science Basis

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 22-23
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Physical Science ◽  
News Item ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Founding Member ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ipcc Working Group ◽  
Group 1

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change. The Sixth Report from IPCC Working Group 1 published in August 2021 paints a very sombre picture for the future. This report was commented on in a news item by the International Science Council (ISC) on behalf of its members, of which IUPAC is a founding member.

scholarly journals ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1155-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan T. Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Group I ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Ipcc Working Group

Abstract. The purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide policy-relevant assessments of the scientific evidence about climate change. Policymaking necessarily involves risk assessments, so it is important that IPCC reports are designed accordingly. This paper proposes a specific idea, illustrated with examples, to improve the contribution of IPCC Working Group I to informing climate risk assessments.

scholarly journals El Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Nature ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 382 (6586) ◽  
pp. 56-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Warren M. Washington
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

scholarly journals No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity along with mitigated climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 315-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. J. Garrett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Double Bind ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Co2 Levels ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. In a prior study (Garrett, 2011), I introduced a simple thermodynamics-based economic growth model. By treating civilization as a whole, it was found that the global economy's current rate of energy consumption can be tied through a constant to its current accumulation of wealth. The value of the constant is λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 milliwatts per 1990 US dollar. Here, this model is coupled to a linear formulation for the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Despite the model's extreme simplicity, multi-decadal hindcasts of trajectories in gross world product (GWP) and CO2 agree closely with recent observations. Extending the model to the future, the model implies that the well-known IPCC SRES scenarios substantially underestimate how much CO2 levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity. Instead, what is shown is that, like a long-term natural disaster, future greenhouse warming should be expected to retard the real growth of wealth through inflationary pressures. Because wealth is tied to rates of energy consumption through the constant λ, it follows that dangerous climate change should be a negative feedback on CO2 emission rates, and therefore the ultimate extent of greenhouse warming. Nonetheless, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations are to remain below a "dangerous" level of 450 ppmv (Hansen et al., 2007), there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization and a near immediate collapse of civilization wealth. Effectively, civilization is in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the danger is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse.

Climate Response at the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum to Greenhouse Gas Forcing—A Model Study with CCSM3

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 2562-2584 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Winguth ◽  
C. Shellito ◽  
C. Shields ◽  
C. Winguth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Methane Hydrate ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 55 Ma) is of particular interest since it is regarded as a suitable analog to future climate change. In this study, the PETM climate is investigated using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 4×, 8×, and 16× the preindustrial value. Simulated climate change from 4× to 8× atmospheric CO2 concentration, possibly corresponding to an environmental precursor of the PETM event, leads to a warming of the North Atlantic Ocean Intermediate-Water masses, thus lowering the critical depth for methane hydrate destabilization by ∼500 m. A further increase from 8× to 16×CO2, analogous to a possible massive methane hydrate release, results in global oceanic warming and stratification. The increase in the radiative surface warming, especially at high latitudes, is partially offset by a decrease in the ocean heat transport due to a reduced overturning circulation. Surface temperature values simulated in the 16×CO2 PETM run represent the closest match to surface temperature reconstructions from proxies for this period. Simulated PETM precipitation, characterized by a slight northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, increases at higher CO2 concentrations, especially for the northern midlatitudes as well as the high latitudes in both hemispheres. Data-inferred precipitation values and gradients for North America and Spain, for instance, are in good agreement with the 16×CO2 simulation. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations might also have favored the release of terrestrial methane through warmer and wetter conditions over land, thus reinforcing the greenhouse gas concentration increase.

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