Bayes' theorem: scientific assessment of experience

Homeopathy is based on experience and this is a scientific procedure if we follow Bayes' theorem. Unfortunately this is not the case at the moment. Symptoms are added to our materia medica based on absolute occurrence, while Bayes theorem tells us that this should be based on relative occurrence. Bayes theorem can be applied on prospective research, but also on retrospective research and consensus based on a large number of cases. Confirmation bias is an important source of false data in experience based systems like homeopathy. Homeopathic doctors should become more aware of this and longer follow-up of cases could remedy this. The existing system of adding symptoms to our materia medica is obsolete.

A Questionnaire Study on the Use of Complementary and Alternative Veterinary Medicine for Dogs in Sweden

Complementary and alternative veterinary medicine (CAVM) includes treatment methods that are not part of established veterinary medicine and where there is not as yet sufficient scientific documentation of the proposed effects. The CAVM use in Swedish dogs is largely unknown, and the aim of this study was to explore this use. Electronic questionnaires were distributed to dog owners, small animal veterinary practitioners, and CAVM therapists. A total of 253 dog owners responded. Except for massage, stretching, and laser therapy, more than 75% of the respondents stated that they did not use CAVM for their dogs. Of the 216 responding veterinarians, 39% did not use CAVM. CAVM use was more common among respondents with <10 years of work experience as compared to those with >10 years of work experience (p < 0.05). Almost half of the 124 responding CAVM therapists treated dogs; the most frequently used methods included massage, stretching, and acupressure. A majority of all respondents found the current Swedish regulation of CAVM insufficient. Although CAVM use in Swedish dogs appears to be uncommon, there is a need for scientific assessment of CAVM in dogs as regards safety and effectiveness for different indications.

The Man of the Theater from the Environment of P.I. Tchaikovsky: K.N. De‐Lazari

This paper is dedicated to a creative personality from P.I. Tchaikovsky’s friendly circle, Konstantin Nikolaevich De-Lazari (stage name Konstantinov). Throughout the composer’s life, this artist of almost all theatrical genres (from drama and opera to vaudeville and operetta) maintained friendly relations with Pyotr Ilyich himself, then with his brothers and father. Serving alternately in the troupes of the opera (Bolshoi Theater, Moscow) and drama theaters (Alexandrinsky Theater, St. Petersburg), he did not lose touch with either the musical or dramatic environment and was considered “his own man” behind the scenes of the theaters of both capitals. He was a friend of Pyotr Ilyich’s friends: N.G. Rubinstein, G.A. Laroche; patronized talented actresses who played prominent roles in the destinies of M.I. Tchaikovsky (M.G. Savina) and A.I. Tchaikovsky (A.Ya. Glama-Meshcherskaya). K.N. De-Lazari left several memoir texts; their exact number and significance for the biography of P.I. Tchaikovsky has not yet received a scientific assessment. These texts and their interpretation will help to expand our understanding of the composer’s circle of friends and the synthetism of perception of musical and dramatic theater, characteristic of P.I. Tchaikovsky, his natural artistry, in a broad sense.

Introduction

This chapter begins with the early regulation of medicines, which was concerned with quality rather than any scientific assessment of efficacy and safety. It describes the latter half of the nineteenth century wherein the need for objective scientific assessment of the safety and efficacy of new medicines and the concept of risk–benefit of medicines was born. It also talks about the configuration of the Licensing Authority in the UK and the European Medicines Evaluation Agency (EMEA) as a key provision of both the Medicines Act 1968 and the European medicines legislation. The chapter analyses Directive 2001/83/EC, which governs all the requirements for the contents of the application dossier and grant of marketing authorisation of medicinal products. It recounts the development of statutory controls in the UK that was consistent with the evolution of the overarching European medicines legislation and the formation of the central European regulatory agency.

Science and Binational Cooperation: Bidirectionality in the Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region

Sharing scientific data and information is often cited within academic literature as an initial step of water cooperation, but the transfer of research findings into policy and practice is often slow and inconsistent. Certain attributes—including salience, credibility, and legitimacy of scientific information; iterative information production; and sociocultural factors—may influence how easily scientific information can be used in management and policymaking. However, transnationality usually complicates these sorts of interactions. Accordingly, we argue that the production of scientific information and transboundary water cooperation build upon each other bidirectionally, each informing and enhancing the other. We employ a case-study analysis of the Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP), a binational collaborative effort for scientific assessment of aquifers shared between Mexico and the United States. Here, information sharing was possible only by first completing a formal, jointly agreed-upon cooperative framework in 2009. This framework resulted in a collaborative science production process, suggesting that the relationship between sharing data and information and transboundary groundwater governance is iterative and self-reinforcing. In keeping with the publication of the TAAP’s first binational scientific report in 2016, we demonstrate the bidirectional relationship between science production and water governance in the TAAP and explore remaining challenges after scientific assessment.

Evaluation of the Review Models and Approval Timelines of Countries Participating in the Southern African Development Community: Alignment and Strategies for Moving Forward

Introduction: Regulatory reliance, harmonization and work sharing have grown over the last few years, resulting in greater sharing of work and information among regulators, enabling efficient use of limited resources and preventing duplication of work. Various initiatives on the African continent include ZaZiBoNa, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) collaborative medicines registration initiative. ZaZiBoNa has resulted in great savings in time and resources; however, identified challenges include lack of clear information regarding the participating countries registration processes and requirements as well as lengthy registration times. The aim of this study, therefore, was to compare the data requirements and review models employed in the assessment of applications for registration, the target timelines for key milestones and the metrics of applications received and approved in 2019 and 2020 by Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.Methods: A senior member of the division responsible for issuing marketing authorisations completed an established and validated questionnaire, which standardizes the review process, allowing key milestones, activities and practices of the six regulatory authorities to be identified and compared. The completed questionnaires were validated by the heads of the respective agencies.Results: The majority of applications received and approved by all six agencies in 2019 and 2020 were for generics. The mean approval times for generics varied across the countries, with ranges of 218–890 calendar days in 2019 and 158–696 calendar days in 2020. All three types of scientific assessment review models were used by the six agencies and data requirements and extent of scientific assessment were similar for five countries, while one conducted full reviews for new active substances. A large variation was observed in the targets set by the six agencies for the different milestones as well as overall approval times.Conclusions: The study identified the strengths of the countries as well as opportunities for improvement and alignment. Implementation of the recommendations made as in this study will enhance the countries' individual systems, enabling them to efficiently support the ZaZiBoNa initiative.

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Linked in U.N. Climate Report

A major scientific assessment of global climate science found a much stronger connection between climate change and extreme weather than ever before.