scholarly journals Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 342
Author(s):  
Lin Xie ◽  
Jiahua Liao ◽  
Haiting Chen ◽  
Xuefei Yan ◽  
Xinyan Hu
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
The Impact

China aims to utilize the futures market to stabilize agricultural product price fluctuation by quantifying the effects of risk transfer and price discovery. However, the role of futurization has been questioned and even posited as the cause of drastic fluctuations in spot market prices. This research aims to clarify the impact of futurization on the price fluctuation of agricultural products and to provide policy reference for the development of the agricultural futures market through the research. Here, we examine the spot price data for apples and use Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) and GARCH models to estimate the impact of apple futures on the volatility of spot prices. Our findings demonstrate that the launch of China’s apple futures did not increase the volatility of apple spot prices; that is, futurization was not the cause of skyrocketing apple spot prices. In the long term, our results suggest that futures will help reduce the volatility of apple spot prices and that the introduction of futures will ultimately reduce the price volatility of agricultural products.

scholarly journals The Impact of Futures Price Volatility to Spot Market : Case of Coffee in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anis Erma Wulandari ◽  
Harianto Harianto ◽  
Bustanul Arifin ◽  
Heny K Suwarsinah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Futures Price ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia is the world 4th largest coffee producer after Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia with export potential and higher national consumption concluded in 2017 while the coffee production was relatively stagnant. This was led the producer to not only the production risk but also the price risk which then emphasize the importance of futures markets existence as price risk management. This study is performed to examine the impact of futures price volatility to spot market using ARCH-GARCH toward primary data of coffee futures and spot prices of 1172 trading days starting from January 2014 to June 2018. The ARCH-GARCH analysis result indicates that futures price volatility and monetary variables are impacting the volatility of spot price. Arabica spot price volatility is impacted by volatility of Arabica futures price, inflation and exchange rate while Robusta spot price is impacted by Robusta futures price volatility and exchange rate. This is confirming that futures market plays dominant role in spot price discovery. Local futures and spot prices are also found to be significantly influenced by volatility of offshore futures prices which indicates that emerging country futures market is actually influenced by offshore futures market which the price itself used as price reference.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Price Volatility Characteristics of China’s Soybean Futures Market Based on ARIMA-GJR-GARCH Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yang Xu ◽  
Zhihao Xia ◽  
Chuanhui Wang ◽  
Weifeng Gong ◽  
Xia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Volume Coefficient ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

As the main force in the futures market, agricultural product futures occupy an important position in the China’s market. Taking the representative soybean futures in Dalian Commodity Futures Market of China as the research object, the relationship between price fluctuation characteristics and trading volume and open position was studied. The empirical results show that the price volatility of China’s soybean futures market has a “leverage effect.” The trading volume and open interest are divided into expected parts and unexpected parts, which are added to the conditional variance equation. The expected trading volume coefficient is estimated. Also, the estimated value of the expected open interest coefficient is, respectively, smaller than the estimated value of the unexpected trading volume coefficient and the estimated value of the unexpected open interest coefficient. Therefore, the impact of expected trading volume on the price fluctuation of China’s soybean futures market is less than that of unexpected trading volume on the price of soybean futures market. This paper adds transaction volume as an information flow to the variance of the conditional equation innovatively and also observes transaction volume as the relationship between conditional variance and price fluctuations.

scholarly journals A Study on the Causal Relationship between Spot Price and Futures Price of Crude Oil and Agricultural Products

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 296-315
Author(s):  
Dong Hoon Shin ◽  
Seon Hyeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Futures Price ◽  
Derivatives Markets ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto

This paper studies the relationship between the agricultural, energy, and derivatives markets. This study empirically analyzes how the results of previous studies on the Granger causality between oil price and the spot price of agricultural products appear in the futures market by using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995)’ causality test. There are two main findings. First, 7 bidirectional causalities and 27 causalities between oil and 6 agricultural products are found, providing strong evidence of a causal relationship. Second, causality is found between oil prices and grain and oilseed type agricultural products, and the spot price of oil has relatively more causalities on agricultural product prices than the futures price of oil. Lastly, testing each period shows that a financial crisis can strengthen the relationship between the agriculture markets and the energy markets

scholarly journals Volatility Dynamics in Oil and Oilseeds Spot and Futures Market in India

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meenakshi Malhotra ◽  
Dinesh Kumar Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
The Impact

Executive Summary India occupies the fifth position in the vegetable oil economy of the world. The demand for oilseeds and vegetable oil has far exceeded the domestic output necessitating huge imports. Futures market helps to bring price stability for the development of the underlying physical market. The present study investigates the volatility dynamics in spot and futures markets of select oil and oilseeds commodities. The objectives of this article are to study (a) the information transmission process between spot and futures markets, also called volatility spillover and (b) the impact of futures trading activity on the volatility of physical market prices. The commodities selected from oil and oilseeds segment are refined soya oil, mustard seed, crude palm oil, and mentha oil. The study uses basic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to capture volatility in prices of the selected commodities. Bivariate GARCH model makes use of information in the history of two different markets for testing volatility spillover between two markets of the same underlying commodity. The relationship between futures trading activity and spot price volatility is investigated for examining the impact of futures trading activity on the volatility of underlying spot market. Two variables, viz., futures trading volume and open interest are decomposed into expected and unexpected components and are taken as a proxy for the level of trading activity. The contemporaneous and dynamic relationships are studied with the help of augmented GARCH model and Granger causality, respectively. It is observed that there is an efficient transmission of information between spot and futures markets but it is the spot market which leads to the flow of information to futures and hence causes greater spillover of volatility. The spot market has a greater impact on the volatility of futures market, indicating that informational efficiency of oilseeds spot market is stronger than that of the futures market. The contemporaneous and dynamic relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading activity tested with econometric models provide evidence of the destabilizing impact of an unexpected increase in futures trading activity (volume or open interest) on the spot price volatility in three out of four commodities studied. This indicates that badly informed traders present in futures market are destabilizing the underlying spot market by inducing noise and lowering the information content of prices.

Operational decisions and game analysis in the agricultural supply chain: invest or not?

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinyi Zhang ◽  
Wen Cao ◽  
Zhichao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Price Sensitivity ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Game Analysis ◽  
Preservation Technology ◽  
Agricultural Supply

PurposeWith the rapid growth of the economy, people have increasingly higher living standards, and although people simply pursued material wealth in the past, they now pay more attention to material quality and safety and environmental protection. This paper discusses the lack of motivation for investing in fresh-keeping technology for agricultural products by individual members of an agricultural supply chain composed of a supplier and a retailer by means of mathematical models and data simulations and discuss the optimal price-invest strategies under different sales models.Design/methodology/approachFirst, based on the model of no investment by both sides (NN), this paper considers three models: supplier only (MN), retailer only (NR) and cooperative investment (MR). Then, the authors analyze the influence of consumer price sensitivity and freshness sensitivity on the investment motivation of agricultural products under four models. Subsequently, the paper makes a sensitivity analysis of the optimal strategies under several models, and makes a game analysis of the suppliers and retailers of agricultural products. Finally, we conduct an empirical analysis through specific values.FindingsThe results show that (a) when the two sides cooperate, the amount of investment is largest, the freshness of the agricultural products is highest, and the sales volume is greatest; however, when both sides do not invest, the freshness of agricultural products and sales volume are lowest. (b) The price and freshness sensitivity of the consumer have an impact on investment decisions. Greater freshness sensitivity corresponds to a higher investment, higher agricultural product price, greater sales volume, and greater supply chain member income and overall income; however, greater price sensitivity corresponds to a lower investment, lower agricultural product price, lower sales volume, fewer supply chain members and lower overall income. (c) The investment game between the supplier and retailer is not only related to the sensitivity to price and freshness but also to the coordination coefficients of interest. At the same time, the market position of agricultural products should be considered when making decisions. The market share of agricultural products will affect the final game equilibrium and then affect the final benefit of the supply chain and individual members.Practical implicationsThese results provide managerial insights for enterprises preparing to invest in agricultural products preservation technology.Originality/valueAt present, the main problem is that member enterprises of agricultural supply chains operate based on their own benefits and are resistant to investing alone to improve the freshness of agricultural products. Instead, they would prefer that other members invest so that they may reap the benefits at no cost. Therefore, the enterprises in each node of the agricultural product supply chain are not motivated enough to invest, and competition and game states are observed among them, and such behavior is definitely not conducive to improving the freshness of agricultural products. However, the current research on agricultural products is more about price, quality and greenness, etc., and there are few studies on agricultural investment. Through the establishment of the model, this paper is expected to provide theoretical suggestions for the supply chain enterprises that plan to invest in agricultural products preservation technology.

scholarly journals A Two-Echelon Agricultural Product Supply Chain with Freshness and Greenness Concerns: A Cost-Sharing Contract Perspective

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Manyi Tan ◽  
Manli Tu ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Tianyue Zou ◽  
Hong Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Cost Sharing ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Agricultural products are basic needs of human beings, and whether they are cultivated in a green (or organic) manner has direct impact on environment and public health. This research incorporates product freshness and greenness into a two-echelon agricultural product supply chain (APSC). Game theoretic analyses are carried out to examine pricing, freshness, and greenness decisions of the supply chain members with and without cost-sharing for greenness investment. Subsequently, we conduct comparative and sensitivity analyses for these optimal decisions and profits of the APSC members under different cases. Numerical experiment is employed to investigate the impact of key parameters on equilibrium decisions and profitability. Analytical and experimental results show that the cost-sharing contract of greenness investment for agricultural products helps to strengthen the supply chain members’ effort in improving the greenness and freshness levels of the agricultural product, thereby enhancing both individual and channel profitability of the APSC under certain conditions. This research also reveals a widened profit gap between the producer and the retailer under the cost-sharing contract.

The Unbiasedness and Hedging Effectiveness in KOSPI200 Futures Market

2007 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-100
Author(s):  
Seok Kyu Kang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Hedging Effectiveness ◽  
Futures Price ◽  
Rolling Windows

This study is to examine the unblasedness hypothesis and hedging effectiveness in KOSPI20() futures market. The unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis is carried out using a cointegration methodology. And hedging effectiveness is measured by comparing hedging performance of the naive hedge model, OLS hedge model. and constant correlation bivariate GARCH (1. 1) hedge model based on rolling windows. The sample period covers from May. 3. 1996 to December. 8, 2005. The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, there exists the cOintegrating relationship between realized spot prices and futures prices of the 10 day. 22 day. 44 day. and 59 day prior to maturity. Second. futures prices of backward the 10 day. 22 day. 44 day from maturity provide unbiased forecasts of the realized spot prices. The KOSPI200 futures price is likely to predict accurately future KOSPI200 spot prices without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Third. for shorter maturity. the futures price appears to be the best forecaster of spot price. Forth, bivariate GARCH hedging effectiveness outperforms the naive and OLS hedging effectiveness. The implications of these findings show that KOSPI200 futures market behaves as unbiased predictor of future spot price and risk management instrument of KOSPI200 spot portfolio.

An Empirical Analysis on Change in Price Discovery of KOSPI200 Futures Through Market Maturity Process

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-77
Author(s):  
Woo–baik Lee
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Information Share ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunity

This paper estimates the contribution of KOSPI200 futures to spot price discovery based on methodology of ‘information share’, which is suggested by Hasbrouck (1995). Using the intraday data covering sample period from year 1997 to 2003, I estimate information share with specification of Vector Error Correction Model. Main empirical findings are summarized as followings; First. estimate of information share is above 60 percent on average through-out the entire sample period. Second. the contribution of KOSPI200 futures to error correction increased during the recent year of sample period. showing that futures price have strong tendency to lead the spot price. Third. price discovery of KOSPI200 futures have significantly positive relationship with program trading volume and seems to increase under contango. These empirical findings explain the ‘market maturity effect’ that role of futures in spot price discovery enhances as cointegration between futures and spot prices strengthens and futures market countervails the arbitrage opportunity. In general. this paper presents that mature futures market Significantly contributes to spot market efficiency and price discovery process.

The Impact of Trading Volumes by Trader Types in the KOSPI200 Futures Market

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Chang Hyeon Yun ◽  
Lee Seong Gu
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Persistent Effect ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
The Impact

In this study we examine the relationships between trader-type-specific trading volumes and the price volatility of the KOSPI200 stock index futures over the period of July 1997 through December 2001. The principal findings of this study are that the changes in trading volumes by foreign investors are positively associated with the return and the volatility of the index futures market. When trading volumes are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, unexpected shocks have more persistent effect on the volatility of the market than expected component. Meanwhile, individuals and domestic commercial investor seem to follow the lead made by foreign investors.

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