scholarly journals Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Pavel N. Vargin ◽  
Sergey V. Kostrykin ◽  
Evgeni M. Volodin ◽  
Alexander I. Pogoreltsev ◽  
Ke Wei
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stationary Planetary Wave

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE STRATOSPHERE VARIABILITY IN XXI CENTURY IN INM CM5 CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
◽  
E. M. Volodin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Break Up

Simulations of 5th version of INM RAS (Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science) climate model performed in the framework of CMIP6 project for the future climate under ssp2–4.5 (moderate) and ssp5–8.5 (business as usual or hard) scenarios of green house gases (GHG) increase are employed to analyze temperature, zonal mean wind, stratospheric polar vortex, planetary wave activity, meridional circulation, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, and stratospheric circulation spring break-up date changes during boreal winters from 2015 to 2100. Comparison of averages over two periods of 2080–2100 and 2015–2035 revealed that temperature will decrease from 1° in the lower stratosphere to 4° in the upper stratosphere under moderate scenario and up to 11° under hard scenario. Cooling of stratosphere will be accompanied by strengthening of zonal circulation and planetary wave activity propagation in the middle – upper stratosphere that in turn leads to increase (stronger under hard scenario) of planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 amplitude (wavenumber 1). 13 major sudden stratospheric warming events and 16 very cold stratospheric winter seasons were revealed under hard scenario. Under both scenarios early spring break-up dates will be accompanied by stronger wavenumber 1 in comparison with winter seasons with later spring break-up dates. Strengthening of zonal mean meridional circulation is expected in the late XXI century

scholarly journals Small-scale variability of stratospheric ozone during the SSW 2018/2019 observed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Schranz ◽  
Jonas Hagen ◽  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Klemens Hocke ◽  
Axel Murk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Horizontal Distance ◽  
Meridional Transport

Abstract. Middle atmospheric ozone, water vapour and zonal and meridional wind profiles have been measured with the two ground-based microwave radiometers GROMOS-C and MIAWARA-C. The instruments are located at the Arctic research base AWIPEV at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79° N, 12° E) since September 2015. GROMOS-C measures ozone spectra in the four cardinal directions with an elevation angle of 22°. This means that the probed airmasses at an altitude of 3 hPa (37 km) have a horizontal distance of 92 km to Ny-Ålesund. We retrieve four separate ozone profiles along the lines of sight and calculate daily mean horizontal ozone gradients which allow us to investigate the small-scale spatial variability of ozone above Ny-Ålesund. In winter 2018/2019 a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place with the central date at 2 January. We present the ozone, water vapour and wind measurements of the winter 2018/2019 and discuss the signatures of the SSW in a global context. We further present the evolution of the ozone gradients at Ny-Ålesund and link it to the planetary wave activity. At 3 hPa we find a distinct seasonal variation of the ozone gradients. In October and March a strong polar vortex leads to ozone decreases towards the pole. In November the amplitudes of the planetary waves grow until they break in the end of December and an SSW takes place. From November until February the ozone gradients mostly point to higher latitudes and the magnitude is smaller than in October and March. We attribute this to the planetary wave activity of wave number 1 and 2 which enabled meridional transport. The MERRA-2 reanalysis and the SD-WACCM model are able to capture the small-scale ozone variability and its seasonal changes.

scholarly journals Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 6707-6728
Author(s):  
P. Bohlinger ◽  
B.-M. Sinnhuber ◽  
R. Ruhnke ◽  
O. Kirner
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Past ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cooling Trend

Abstract. Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological re-analyses from ERA-Interim for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model EMAC and CCM models from the CCMVal project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades ERA-Interim shows a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, in ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade−1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model confirm the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from ERA-Interim. EMAC predicts a continued annual radiatively induced cooling for the coming decades (2001–2049) of −0.15 ± 0.06 K decade−1 where the projected increase of CO2 accounts for about 2/3 of the cooling effect. Expected decrease of stratospheric halogen loading and resulting ozone recovery in the future counteracts the cooling tendency due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and leads to a reduced future cooling trend compared to the past. CCMVal multi-model mean predicts a future annual mean radiatively induced cooling of −0.10 ± 0.02 K decade−1 which is also smaller in the future than in the past.

scholarly journals Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1679-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bohlinger ◽  
B.-M. Sinnhuber ◽  
R. Ruhnke ◽  
O. Kirner
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature

Abstract. Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade−1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling of the Arctic stratosphere over the coming decades (2001–2049) that is for the annual mean about 40% less than the modeled cooling for the past, due to the reduction of ozone depleting substances and the resulting ozone recovery. This projected cooling in turn could offset between 15 and 40% of the Arctic ozone recovery.

scholarly journals Small-scale variability of stratospheric ozone during the sudden stratospheric warming 2018/2019 observed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 10791-10806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Schranz ◽  
Jonas Hagen ◽  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Klemens Hocke ◽  
Axel Murk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Horizontal Distance ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Abstract. Middle atmospheric ozone, water vapour and zonal and meridional wind profiles have been measured with the two ground-based microwave radiometers GROMOS-C and MIAWARA-C. The instruments have been located at the Arctic research base AWIPEV at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79∘ N, 12∘ E), since September 2015. GROMOS-C measures ozone spectra in the four cardinal directions with an elevation angle of 22∘. This means that the probed air masses at an altitude of 3 hPa (37 km) have a horizontal distance of 92 km to Ny-Ålesund. We retrieve four separate ozone profiles along the lines of sight and calculate daily mean horizontal ozone gradients which allow us to investigate the small-scale spatial variability of ozone above Ny-Ålesund. We present the evolution of the ozone gradients at Ny-Ålesund during winter 2018/2019, when a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place with the central date at 2 January, and link it to the planetary wave activity. We further analyse the SSW and discuss our ozone and water vapour measurements in a global context. At 3 hPa we find a distinct seasonal variation of the ozone gradients. The strong polar vortex during October and March results in a decreasing ozone volume mixing ratio towards the pole. In November the amplitudes of the planetary waves grow until they break in the end of December and an SSW takes place. From November until February ozone increases towards higher latitudes and the magnitude of the ozone gradients is smaller than in October and March. We attribute this to the planetary wave activity of wave numbers 1 and 2 which enabled meridional transport. The MERRA-2 reanalysis and the SD-WACCM model are able to capture the small-scale ozone variability and its seasonal changes.

scholarly journals Tropospheric forcing of the boreal polar vortex splitting in January 2003

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 2133-2148 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. W. Peters ◽  
P. Vargin ◽  
A. Gabriel ◽  
N. Tsvetkova ◽  
V. Yushkov
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Trains

Abstract. The dynamical evolution of the relatively warm stratospheric winter season 2002–2003 in the Northern Hemisphere was studied and compared with the cold winter 2004–2005 based on NCEP-Reanalyses. Record low temperatures were observed in the lower and middle stratosphere over the Arctic region only at the beginning of the 2002–2003 winter. Six sudden stratospheric warming events, including the major warming event with a splitting of the polar vortex in mid-January 2003, have been identified. This led to a very high vacillation of the zonal mean circulation and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex over the whole winter season. An estimate of the mean chemical ozone destruction inside the polar vortex showed a total ozone loss of about 45 DU in winter 2002–2003; that is about 2.5 times smaller than in winter 2004–2005. Embedded in a winter with high wave activity, we found two subtropical Rossby wave trains in the troposphere before the major sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2003. These Rossby waves propagated north-eastwards and maintained two upper tropospheric anticyclones. At the same time, the amplification of an upward propagating planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was observed, which could be caused primarily by those two wave trains. Furthermore, two extratropical Rossby wave trains over the North Pacific Ocean and North America were identified a couple of days later, which contribute mainly to the vertical planetary wave activity flux just before and during the major warming event. It is shown that these different tropospheric forcing processes caused the major warming event and contributed to the splitting of the polar vortex.

Comparison of Key Characteristics of Remarkable SSW Events in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Kozubek ◽  
Peter Krizan
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Strong Activity ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Zonal Wave Number ◽  
Show Difference ◽  
Temperature Enhancement ◽  
Stationary Planetary Wave

<p>An exceptionally strong sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during September 2019 was observed. Because SSW in the SH is very rare, comparison with the only recorded major SH SSW is done. According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) definition, the SSW in 2019 has to be classified as minor. The cause of SSW in 2002 was very strong activity of stationary planetary wave with zonal wave-number (ZW) 2, which reached its maximum when the polar vortex split into two circulations with polar temperature enhancement by 30 K/week and it penetrated deeply to the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. On the other hand, the minor SSW in 2019 involved an exceptionally strong wave-1 planetary wave and a large polar temperature enhancement by 50.8 K/week, but it affected mainly the middle and upper stratosphere. The strongest SSW in the Northern Hemisphere was observed in 2009. This study provides comparison of two strongest SSW in the SH and the strongest SSW in the NH to show difference between two hemispheres and possible impact to the lower or higher layers.</p>

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