scholarly journals Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 4015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas A. Varotsos ◽  
Yuri A. Mazei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
The Past

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June–July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181–1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today’s modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.

Recurrence of extreme temperatures in Switzerland from 1965 to 2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Gubler ◽  
Sophie Fukutome ◽  
Christoph Frei
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Standard Normal Distribution ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
The Past ◽  
T Distribution

<p>Extreme high temperatures have a strong impact on human well-being. In Switzerland, for instance, mortality has been shown to increase during strong heat waves (e.g., Ragettli et al., 2017) such as those that occurred in 2003, 2015, or 2018. Knowledge on the recurrence of such heat waves is therefore important, but conventional analysis of observational series is challenged by their rare occurrence (limited sampling), long-term trends, and strong seasonality (non-stationarity). This work presents a methodology, to derive reliable recurrence estimates of extreme maximum and minimum temperature events, taking account of gradual trends and seasonality in the data.</p><p>Temperature in Switzerland undergoes pronounced seasonal fluctuations, both in mean value and variance. In addition, a significant warming occurred over the last decades. To derive robust estimates on the rarity of a given extreme temperature event, it is important that these non-stationarities are formally modelled. Our modelling assumes that observed daily temperatures at stations are a superposition of a gradual, non-linear trend and residuals from a skewed T-distribution. The parameters of that distribution are assumed to vary over the year as second order harmonic functions. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Thanks to this modelling, the existing daily temperature data can be transformed into a standard normal distribution, and the probability of an event can thus be assessed with respect to the climate at the time of measurement (year, calendar day).</p><p>With this methodology in hand, we analyze heat waves of the past, focusing on extreme temperatures at the beginning of summer when mortality risks are higher (Ragettli et al, 2017). We show how the risk of extreme heat has changed in the past, and how very rare events have become much more frequent in the present climate.</p><p> </p><p>Ragettli, M., Vicedo-Cabrero, A. M., Schindler, C., and M. Röösli (2017): Exploring the association between heat and mortality in Switzerland between 1995 and 2013, Environmental Research, 158, 703-709, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.07.021.</p>

Occurrence of extreme temperature events – A Probable risk on natural rubber cultivation

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
K.K. Jayasooryan ◽  
P.R. Satheesh ◽  
R. Krishnakumar ◽  
James Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
The Past ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Expert Team ◽  
Increasing Trends

<span style="line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-GB">Climate change and occurrence of extreme temperature events were studied in Kottayam, a major rubber growing district in Kerala. Occurrence of extreme temperature events can affect the livelihood of rubber growers apart from the ecological impact. The present study was conducted by analysing the occurrence of extreme temperature events in the past 40 years (1970-2010) using the RClimDex package developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI), Canada. Temporal variations in trends of occurrence of extreme temperature events were tested with Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The 5-year diurnal temperature range (DTR, difference between monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures) increased from 7.8 (during 1970-1974) to 9.2 0C (during 2006-2010). The monthly mean maximum temperature increased by 0.035 0C per year. Frequency of occurrence of hot days increased at a rate of 0.56 per cent per year and the highest temperature recorded in a month showed an increase of 0.038 0C per year. As observed, the increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme temperature events may eventually lead to the warming up of the region in future. The study indicates that the projected warming tendency in the traditional rubber growing regions of India may affect the rubber cultivation adversely.</span>

scholarly journals Exploring linkages between climate change and sexual health: a scoping review protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e054720
Author(s):  
Carmen H Logie ◽  
Danielle Toccalino ◽  
Anna Cooper Reed ◽  
Kalonde Malama ◽  
Peter A Newman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sexual Health ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Subject Headings ◽  
Elevated Exposure

IntroductionThe effects of climate change and associated extreme weather events (EWEs) present substantial threats to well-being. EWEs hold the potential to harm sexual health through pathways including elevated exposure to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), disrupted healthcare access, and increased sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). The WHO defines four components of sexual health: comprehensive sexuality education; HIV and STI prevention and care; SGBV prevention and care; and psychosexual counselling. Yet, knowledge gaps remain regarding climate change and its associations with these sexual health domains. This scoping review will therefore explore the linkages between climate change and sexual health.Methods and analysisFive electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, CINAHL) will be searched using text words and subject headings (eg, Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), Emtree) related to sexual health and climate change from the inception of each database to May 2021. Grey literature and unpublished reports will be searched using a comprehensive search strategy, including from the WHO, World Bank eLibrary, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The scoping review will consider studies that explore: (a) climate change and EWEs including droughts, heat waves, wildfires, dust storms, hurricanes, flooding rains, coastal flooding and storm surges; alongside (b) sexual health, including: comprehensive sexual health education, sexual health counselling, and HIV/STI acquisition, prevention and/or care, and/or SGBV, including intimate partner violence, sexual assault and rape. Searches will not be limited by language, publication year or geographical location. We will consider quantitative, qualitative, mixed-methods and review articles for inclusion. We will conduct thematic analysis of findings. Data will be presented in narrative and tabular forms.Ethics and disseminationThere are no formal ethics requirements as we are not collecting primary data. Results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and shared at international conferences.

Vulnerability to the Health Impacts of Drought in Canada in the Context of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Berry ◽  
Anna Yusa ◽  
Livia Bizikova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Spinal Cord Injuries ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Policies And Programs

Climate change is likely to increase drought globally and regionally, including within Canada, by the end of the century. In recent years, drought has affected communities across Canada and can have significant impacts on individuals. Health risks relate to the exacerbation of food and waterborne diseases, inadequate nutrition, impacts on air quality, vector-borne diseases, illnesses related to the exposure of toxins, mental health effects, and impacts from injuries (e.g., traffic accidents, spinal cord injuries). In Canada, the impacts of drought on human health and well-being are not well understood and monitoring and surveillance of such impacts is limited. In addition, important factors that make people and communities vulnerable to health impacts of drought require more investigation. These factors may differ significantly among the populations (e.g., rural vs urban) and regions (prairies, coastal, and northern). Vulnerability to drought health impacts in Canada due to climate change may be affected by: (1) changes in exposure as droughts increase or combine with other extreme events (wildfires, heat waves) to harm health; (2) changes in adaptive capacity due to impacts on, for example, health services from increasing extreme weather events; and (3) changes in susceptibility related to demographic (e.g., aging, chronic diseases) and socioeconomic trends. Effective measures to increase the resiliency of Canadians to drought health impacts require proactive adaptation efforts that increase knowledge of factors that make people and their communities vulnerable to this hazard, information as to how droughts might increase in the future, and integration of this information into future policies and programs. This paper identifies a set of indicators that may be used to gauge vulnerability to the impacts of drought on health in the context of climate change in Canada to inform adaptation actions.

Health Risks to the Russian Population from Weather Extremes in the Beginning of the XXI Century. Part 1. Heat and Cold Waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-33
Author(s):  
B. A. Revich ◽  
E. A. Grigorieva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Action Plans ◽  
National Plan ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
The North

This literature review summarizes the results of international studies conducted by WHO, WMO, EU, and other organizations, in the areas of assessment of climate change-induced urban health risks, and development of action plans for adaptation of public health care and other public governance bodies to climate change. The results of studies of the relationships between heat waves, cold spells, and mortality rates conducted in Russian cities have also been critically reviewed. The study cites included the largest cities (Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, etc.) situated in various climate zones: Arctic, South European part of Russia, continental and monsoon climate zones. These studies showed that heat waves in the cities with moderately continental climate typically lead to greater increases in all-cause mortality rates than cold spells, relative to the cities located in other climate zones. At the same time, the health impacts of cold spells were more pronounced than those of heat waves in the north cities, which was not observed in the Russian South or Middle Siberia cities. On average, cold spells are characterized by greater health risks in the north cities than in the south cities. The values of the 3rd and 97th percentiles of long-term distributions of daily mean temperatures can be used as the threshold values for hazardous cold and heat waves. The health action plans should be activated when daily mean temperatures fall below the cold threshold, or exceed the heat threshold. The values of temperature thresholds depend upon local climates and are similar to hygienic standards. Russia has adopted a National Plan for adaptation to health risks induced by climate change. This plan includes the measures specifically aimed at reductions of excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells. The National Plan prescribes that similar plans should be developed for all administrative subjects of the Russian Federation. Implementation of heat wave (or cold spell) early warning systems in combination with other preventive measures can effectively reduce the numbers of excess deaths during extreme weather events.

Climate Change and Liveability of Cities: an Assessment of Possible Health Threats Associated With Increased Temperatures in Cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Leal Filho ◽  
Liza Tuladhar ◽  
Chunlan Li ◽  
Abdul-Lateef Babatunde Balogun ◽  
Marina Kovaleva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Climate change is associated with extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, hurricanes, storms, and wildfires globally. Within cities, the impacts of climate change are quite conspicuous as the percentage of urban dwellers is expected to reach about 70% by 2050. As the planet warms up, temperatures in cities are likely to increase more than in rural areas. These dual challenges severely impact urban residents. This paper reports on a study on the impacts of climate change on the health and liveability of a set of 15 cities, in industrialised and developing countries from around the world. The assessment, based on the literature, examined the average temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of each city, and this data has been correlated with their liveability. It was complemented by a survey focused on residents of 109 cities from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America Oceania. The findings show that developing countries seem to be especially struggling to adapt to the threats caused by increasing temperatures. Moreover, cities in industrialised countries are not immune to climate change impacts. The paper also outlines some mitigation and adaptation measures, which can be implemented to improve the liveability in cities and the well-being of their populations, and to make them more sustainable.

scholarly journals Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1584
Author(s):  
Ivana Tošić ◽  
Suzana Putniković ◽  
Milica Tošić ◽  
Irida Lazić
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter.

scholarly journals Affrontare il cambiamento climatico è una ‘missione possibile’

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-160
Author(s):  
Roberto Buizza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Greenhouse Gases Emissions ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Change Impact

Climate change is real, and we, humans, are responsible for it. Its impact is already evident, both on the Earth system (global warming, sea-level rise, sea-ice melting, more intense and frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves and fires) and on people (famines, health issues, migrations, political tensions and conflicts). We need immediate and concrete mitigation actions aiming to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and adaptation actions to be able to cope with the increasing changing climate. We have to reach zero-net greenhouse gases emissions as soon as possible, by reducing emissions by at least 5% a year, starting from now. Otherwise the climate change impact will become more and more severe: it will induce more injustice, and it will have a major impact on people health. We have the resources and the technologies to deal with it: we must have the courage to change and transform and deal with it. Addressing climate change is not impossible: to the contrary, it is a ‘possible mission’.

Social consequences of climate change in the Arctic towns

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Klyuchnikova ◽  
Larisa Riabova ◽  
Vladimir Masloboev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Urban Residents ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Murmansk Region

&lt;p&gt;Climate change in the Arctic is noticeable and affecting the well-being of the population. The health and emotional state, food and water availability, livelihoods are on the threat. The towns are particularly sensitive to climate change. Their population and infrastructure density is exceptionally high, and temperature fluctuations, as well as extreme weather events, have an exceptionally strong impact on air and water quality, health and other components of human well-being. At the same time, urban communities in the Arctic, especially in industrial development zones, represent a little-studied area in this case.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The report presents the interdisciplinary study results concerning the climate change consequences for the population of Russian Arctic industrial developed areas. The study carried out in Murmansk Region which is a highly industrial and highly urbanized region that is completely included in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Qualitative methods were used; in-depth (more than 50 questions) interviews were conducted with residents of several towns in the region. The study showed corresponds between the subjective perceptions of climate change by urban residents of the Murmansk Region with objective data on meteorological parameters changes. The surveyed urban residents feel changes in health and environmental management practices, and many respondents associate these changes with climate fluctuations. Such a phenomenon as the destruction of infrastructure (residential, public and industrial buildings, roads, energy infrastructure) due to climate change has not been identified. Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of climate warming on the ability to have a decent job due to reduced employment in some industries (such as energy).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results obtained contribute to a better understanding of the social consequences of climate change in the Russian Arctic. This is important for adaptation actions development.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

PRODUCTION OF DOMESTIC HOT WATER IN A SUSTAINABLE WAY BY USING A COMBINED SOLAR - TLUD SYSTEM

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radu Radoi ◽  
Ioan Pavel ◽  
Corneliu Cristescu ◽  
Liliana Dumitrescu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Solar Thermal ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Automation System ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Domestic Hot Water

Fossil fuels are an exhaustible resource on Earth, and their use pollutes the environment massively. The population of the planet has grown a lot, and for the production of domestic hot water, to ensure a decent standard of living, it is necessary to consume increasing quantities of fossil fuels. The very high level of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere leads to an increase in average of annual temperature and climate change. Climate change is manifested by the melting of the ice caps, which has the consequence of increasing the level of the seas and oceans. Climate change also leads to extreme weather events such as floods, heat waves or the appearance of arid areas. Risks to human health have increased through deaths caused by heat or by changing the way some diseases are spread. Risks also exist for flora and wildlife due to rapid climate change.Many species of animals migrate, and other species of animals and plants are likely to disappear. Climate change also leads to costs for society and the economy due to damage to property and infrastructure, which have been more than 90 billion euros in the last 30 years, just because of the floods. In order to reduce the effects of environmental pollution, ecological energy production solutions need to be expanded. The article presents the creation of an experimental stand of a Solar - TLUD stove combined system for the production of domestic hot water in a sustainable way. TLUD is the acronym for "Top-Lit UpDraft". The advantage of the combined heat system is that it can provide thermal energy both during the day and at night. If the atmospheric conditions are unfavorable (clouds, fog) and do not allow the water to be heated only with the solar panel, TLUD gas stove can be used to supplement the energy. The TLUD stove has low Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Particulate Matter (PM) emissions. After gasification, about 10% of the carbon contained in the biomass is thermally stabilized and can be used as a "biochar" in agriculture or it can be burnt completely, resulting in very little ash. The stand is composed of a solar thermal panel, a TLUD stove, a boiler for hot water storage and an automation system with circulation pumps and temperature sensors. To record the experimental results, a data acquisition board was used, with which data were recorded from a series of temperature and flow transducers located in the installation. Experimental results include diagrams for temperature variation, available energy and heat accumulated in the boiler. Keywords: combined thermal system, TLUD stove, domestic hot water, solar thermal panel, data aquisition system

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document