scholarly journals What Information in Financial Statements Could Be Used to Predict the Risk of Equity Investment?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
Min (Shirley) Liu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Good News ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Accounting Earnings ◽  
Equity Investment ◽  
Unexpected Earnings

Theoretically, accounting earnings could be used to estimate the intrinsic value of equity. If accounting earnings could be predicted accurately, then, so could be the value of equity, thereby, creating much less risk in equity investment. However, earnings surprises are common, and therefore so is the risk in equity investment. To quantify the risk in the investment implied from accounting earnings, I propose to use financial statements to construct abnormal sales growth rates (ABG) and abnormal changes in profit margins (ABPM) to measure the uncertainty embedded in the accounting earnings. I measure ABG (ABPM) as the difference between the current value of sales growth rate (profit margin) and its benchmark, a weighted value of the three preceding years’ sales growth rate (profit margin). Then, I quantify whether and to what extent the news of ABG and ABPM are material enough to change the expected earnings (proxied by analysts’ forecasted earnings revisions [FREV] and predicted unexpected earnings [UE], and future stock returns [SAR]). Fama–MacBeth regression results show that, together, solely ABPM and ABG could explain 8.2% (2.3%) (5.4%) of the variation of FREV (UE) (SAR). The risk-predictability of ABPM and ABG is robust to the presence of abnormal growth in net operating assets and accruals quality, which, suggested by previous literature, might influence unexpected earnings. Further contingent analyses indicate that the capital market reacts more strongly to the bad news embedded in the ABPM/ABG (with negative signs) than the good news in ABPM/ABG (with positive signs).

ANALISIS LAPORAN KEUANGAN SEBAGAI ALAT UNTUK MENGUKUR PENGARUH KEMAMPULABAAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN PENJUALAN (Studi Kasus pada PT. Tjiwi Kimia dan PT. Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk.)

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Rizki Ahmad Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Growth Ratio ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Operating Profit ◽  
Pulp Paper

     Profitability is the ability to create profit in the company, the prifitability can kniw by anayzing elements such as analysis the Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Return On Assets (ROA) and Return On Equity (ROE). Sales growth is a trend or movement from the company activities from sale of each period. The purpose of this research is to determine: 1. To determine the influence sales growth through rasio analysis? 2. To determine a company’s financial condition through ratio analysis? 3. To determine the relationship between the ratio of sales growth and profitability ratio?      Research conduction from 2003 to 2007, by taking sampled of two paper companies, namely : PT. Tjiwi Kimia Tbk, and PT. Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk    Based on the results of data processing, it can be concluded that the  PT. Tjiwi Kimia Tbk., in terms of sales growh ratio,PT. Tjiwi Kimia for 2003 to 2007 produced a positive trend ratio is an average of 8,42 percent. The profitability level of of PT. Tjiwi Kimia Tbk, for the year 2003 to 2007, which is seen from the company’s ability to produce the OPM (Operating Profit Margin) increased overall trend, an average of 17,9 percent, while the terms of return on equity fierm are able produces an average of 3,4 percent, and the ability in terms of return on assets decreased tendency of companies an average of 0,5 percent.Based  on the correlation of the PT. Tjiwi kimia Tbk has a relationship to the operating profit margin (OPM) of 0,495 percent (positive, do not approach 1). This means that that the growth rate has a weak relationship to the operating profit marginWhile in PT. Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, in terms of sales growth rate average of 8.94 percent, the level of profitability from 2003 to 2007, namely in terms of OPM (Operating Profit Margin) increased the overall trend is an average of 16 , 24 per cent, while for the ability in terms of ROE in the year is between 2003 to 2007 the overall trend of declining average of 0.61 percent, and for the profitability of companies in terms of ROA is also experiencing a declining trend that is an average of 1, 87 per cent. sales growth rate relationship with the operatingprofit margin (OPM) has a correlation of 0.637 percent (positive, approaching 1). This means that the growth rate has a strong relationship with the Operating Profit Margin    The result ot the evalution in the study states that overall PT. Tjiwi Kimia Tbk hal a level of profitability that is better than PT. Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, although the company has lost  sales growth ratio of PT. Indah KiatKeyword: the ratio of sales growth, profitability 

scholarly journals The impact of the Law on Strengthening the Security of Financial Relations on the value relevance of accounting information in Tunisian Stock Exchange

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Mohamed Rafik Ben Ayed ◽  
Ezzeddine Abaoub
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Accounting Earnings ◽  
The Law ◽  
Security Returns ◽  
The Impact

This paper empirically investigates the value relevance of accounting earnings measures in the emerging capital market of Tunisia. The issue is tested by estimating the regression of annual security returns on different earnings measures extracted from income statements. In Tunisia, firms prepare their financial statements in accordance with Tunisian Accounting Standards (TAS) which are inspired from International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Based on a sample of 389 firm years for firms listed on the Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) during the period 1997-2008 and using pooled regressions, we find that accounting earnings measures are weakly related to security returns. However, we find that earnings before taxes has the higher explanatory power for stock returns. This is perhaps due to the fact that financial statements are often influenced by taxation rules (ROSC, 2006; section 42). Further, we find that cash flow from operations and Total accruals are not value relevant for valuation. We tested whether the value relevance of each measure of performance improved after the adoption in October 2005 of the Law on Strengthening the Security of Financial Relations (LSSFR). Consistent with prior US and other international findings, results show that the explanatory power and the magnitude of the slope coefficient of each measure increased when we take into account for the impact of this enactment. However, the increase is not statistically significant. This is perhaps due to the employed specification of the relation between security returns and accounting information.

scholarly journals The Effect of Board Composition on Conservatism: Empirical Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE)

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Keramat Ollah Heydari ◽  
Saber Samadi . ◽  
Hamid Asadzadeh . ◽  
Ahmad Kazemi Margavi . ◽  
Hemad Nazari .
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Board Of Directors ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Board Composition ◽  
The Board Of Directors

Conservative is misinterpreted as capturing accountants 'tendency to require higher degree of verification for recognizing good news than bad news in financial statements. Under this interpretation of conservatism, earnings reflect bad news more quickly than good news. By using firms' stock returns to measure news, the asymmetric time lineless of recognizing good news and bad news can be examined as a measure of conservative behavior and as them an in question of this research in Irani and capital market. This research examines effect of composition of the board of directors of the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) on conservative. Data analysis for seven years (2003-2010) shows that companies with a more in dependent board are more conservative. It means that these companies report bad news more timeliness than good news. The results of the research results confirm and reinforce previous researches.

scholarly journals PENGARUH LIKUIDITAS, NET PROFIT MARGIN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN PENJUALAN TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM (STUDI EMPIRIS PADA PERUSAHAAN PROPERTY DAN REAL ESTATE YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2012-2016)

Jurnal Ecogen ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Syafrida Anggraini ◽  
Syamwil Syamwil
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Net Profit

The research aims at finding out the effect of likuidity, net profit margin, and sales growth on stock prices. Data  analysis is the annual report and financial statements of Property & Real Estate companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2012-2016. While the sample was determined by the purposive sampling method to obtain a sample of 28 companies. Type the data used is secondary data obtained from www.idx.co.id. The method of analysis used multiple regression analysis.Based on the results of multiplie regression analysis with the a significance level of 5% the result of the research concluded: (1) Likuidity has  effect on stock prices on companies property & real estate listed on the IDX with significace value 0,020 < 0,05. (2) net profit margin has  effect on stock prices on companies property & real estate listed on the IDX with significace value 0,000 < 0,05. (3) sales growth has  effect on stock prices on companies property & real estate listed on the IDX with significace value 0,005 > 0,05. Keywords: Likuidity, Net Profit Margin, Sales Growth, Stock Prices

scholarly journals PENGARUH LABA AKUNTANSI & ARUS KAS OPERASI TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI (RETURN SAHAM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-170
Author(s):  
M. Rinto Ananta Pintarto ◽  
Pujiono Pujiono
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Accounting Earnings ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Regression Test ◽  
Operating Cash Flow

This study aimed to examine the market reaction to the publication of accounting information in the form of profits and operating cash flows associated with investment decisions.  As a proxy of investment decisions is stock returns in banking companies at the time of publication of financial statements.  The technique applied in this research is purposive sampling, obtained as many as 114 data (from 38 companies for 3 years). Using the SPSS tool.  The method used in this research is non-linear regression test.  The results of the study show that accounting earnings have an effect on investment decisions (stock returns), meanwhile operating cash flows doesn’t have any effect on investment decisions (stock returns).  Therefore, it is recommended for investors to pay more attention to accounting income statements than operating cash flows to sort out stocks itself. keywords: accounting income, operating cash flow, stock returns, investment decisions.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PENGUMUMAN LAPORAN KEUANGAN TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN GO PUBLIC DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Idham Lakoni
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Good News ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Positive Effect

Financial reports are important for investors as decision makers to invest their capital in certain issuers, announcements of financial statements can be good news or bad news for investors, so that at the time the financial statements of investors will react to stock prices which can ultimately affect stock returns that will received. This study aims to see differences in stock returns before and after the financial statements are announced, and to see whether the announcement of financial statements affect stock returns on companies that go public on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This research was conducted by looking at changes in the average return of shares before and after the financial statements were announced. By using the purposive sampling method, a sample of 10 companies were selected on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The observation period is carried out for 15 days, which is 7 days before the announcement of the financial statements, when the financial statements are announced and 7 days after the announcement of financial statements as of December 31, 2008 and 2009. In 2008 at the beginning of the observation (stock returns tend to be negative towards the announcement date financial reports there is a positive change because the information received by investors is good news as they expected, whereas in 2009 the initial observation of stock returns tended to be positive changes towards the negative approached the announcement of financial statements and returned to positive again after the announcement of financial statements this is because the information obtained by investors is not as good as expected. From the results of the study it can be seen that the announcement of financial statements is considered good news by investors so that it has a positive effect on stock returns, using tables and graphs. see changes in stock returns before and after the financial statements are announced, that is, after the financial statements are announced, stock returns tend to increase more than before the financial statements were announced

scholarly journals Asymmetry and Leverage with News Impact Curve Perspective in Australian Stock Returns’ Volatility during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 314
Author(s):  
Najam Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Saqib Manzoor ◽  
Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
News Shocks ◽  
Australian Health ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Garch Model

This paper studies the effect of COVID-19 on the volatility of Australian stock returns and the effect of negative and positive news (shocks) by investigating the asymmetric nature of the shocks and leverage impact on volatility. We employ a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and extend the analysis using the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model to capture asymmetry and allegedly leverage. We proxy the news related to the negative effect of COVID-19 on the Australian health system and its economy as bad news, and on the other hand, measures taken by government economic stimulus packages through their monetary and fiscal policies as good news. The S&P ASX200 (ASX-200) index is used as a proxy to the Australian stock market, and we use value-weighted returns of the stocks listed on ASX-200 for the period 27 January 2020 to 29 December 2020. The empirical results suggest the EGARCH model fits better in capturing asymmetry and leverage than the GARCH model in estimating the volatility of the Australian stock returns. However, another interesting finding is that the EGARCH model with volatility equation without news demonstrates a larger (smaller) leverage effect of the negative (positive) shocks on the conditional volatility compared to its variant with the news.

Earnings management in non-public companies: the case of for-profit hospice organizations

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Kelly Noe ◽  
Dana A. Forgione ◽  
Pamela C. Smith ◽  
Hanni Liu
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Accounting Earnings ◽  
Public Companies ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Management Literature ◽  
Political Cost ◽  
Accounting Earnings Management ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
Cost Factors

We examine earnings management in non-publicly listed companies, with a focus on for-profit (FP) hospice organizations, and extend the accounting earnings management literature to the hospice industry. FP hospice organizations file Medicare cost reports that include complete financial statements not otherwise publicly available. Managers of FP hospice organizations have incentives to manage earnings to increase performancebased bonuses, meet or beat bond covenant requirements, or avoid public scrutiny. We find total accruals are significantly positively associated with profitability, debt, and size factors. However, discretionary accruals are significantly negatively associated with debt and size, but not profitability. Thus, monitoring and political cost factors appear to effectively mitigate earnings management in this industry sector.

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