scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Tian Xian ◽  
Runze Zhao ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Junggar Basin ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Drought Disaster

Drought risk analysis can help improve disaster management techniques, thereby reducing potential drought risk under the impacts of climate change. This study analyses observed and model-simulated spatial patterns of changes in drought risk in vulnerable eco-regions in China during 1988–2017 and 2020–2050 using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. To perform a risk assessment and estimation of a drought disaster, three subsystems—namely hazard, vulnerability and exposure—are assessed in terms of the effects of climate change since the middle of the 21st century: (i) Hazards, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in rainfall averages, temperature averages and evaporation averages; (ii) vulnerability, encompassing land use and mutual transposition between them; (iii) exposure, consisting of socioeconomic, demographic, and farming. The results demonstrated that high hazards continue to be located in the arid zone, high vulnerability levels occur in the Junggar Basin and Inner Mongolia Plateau, and high exposure levels occur Loess Plateau and southern coastal area. In this way, the results provide exhaustive measures for proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of climate change impacts and the post-mining land reclamation on the example of the “Brzeziny” Natural Aggregate Mine

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Pawełczyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mining Area ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Optimal Method

Abstract Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects manifested in increasingly extreme meteorological phenomena are one of the most important contemporary global challenges. In the face of new hazards, numerous measures are taken to adapt environmental components and ventures to climate change, such as the reclamation of degraded areas – recognized as a key adaptation and mitigation action. The success and the property of selecting these measures, including reclamation, requires a detailed recognition of the risk of occurrence of various hazards and of the severity of their consequences in a given area. The study assessed the risk of the climate change impacts on the post-mining area and based on its results an optimal method of reclamation of the “Brzeziny” gravel pit was proposed, aimed at the maximum adaptation of the area to the occurrence of potential climate events. The risk analysis was based on elements of the common risk assessment methodology (CRAM) and enriched with elements of the analytic hierarchy process method (AHP). Moreover, the event tree analysis (ETA) logic technique was used to assess the proposed adaptation measures at the reclamation stage.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Drought Based on IEAPP-IDM in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Guiyun Liu ◽  
Huimin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Drought Disaster

A new model for risk assessment of drought based on projection pursuit optimized by immune evolutionary algorithm and information diffusion method (IEAPP-IDM) was proposed. Due to the fact that drought risk assessment is a complex multicriteria and multilevel problem, the IEAPP-IDM model can project the multidimensional indicators of samples into one-dimension projection scores; then, the information carried by the projection scores was diffused into drought risk levels; finally, the drought disaster risk estimate was obtained. In the present study, Qujing was employed to assess the drought risk with the proposed model. The results showed that Xuanwei possessed higher risk, while Luliang and Zhanyi possessed lower risk. At the same time, the probability risk of drought in Malong and Luoping was increasing, while the probability risk of drought in in Qilin and Shizong was decreasing. The results obtained by the assessment model are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing and verify the model’s effectiveness. The study can provide scientific reference in drought risk management for Qujing and other places of China.

Drought and Flood Risk, Impacts and Adaptation Options for Resilience in Rural Communities of Uganda

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuaib Lwasa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rural Communities ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Semi Arid

Climate change is affecting many rural resource-poor communities unequivocally with differing magnitude, severity and frequency of drought risk from one locale to another especially in Africa. At micro spatial scale of households and villages, climate change risk trends and hazards vary spatially, coupling with social, economic and locational conditions. This paper analyzes vulnerability and impacts of climate change from droughts and floods in a rural community with varied geographies across social, economic and environmental profiles in Uganda. In recent years, studies have shown that droughts have increased form 1 in 10 years to 1 in 6 years and the worst affected area is the semi-arid zone of Uganda that spans from south western through central parts to the north-eastern parts of the country. In the study area of Pallisa, located in the eastern central part of the semi-arid zone, droughts and floods impacts on livelihoods, people and assets are eroding the asset-base for the households. Yet the household assets are important in adaptation and resilience of the community. As a natural resource dependent community like many others, evidence strongly suggests increasing climate risks of droughts and floods the impacts of which are worsening the already grim conditions of community well-being. This paper analyses the climate risks utilizing the vulnerability assessment framework. A scenario-based analysis that integrates community evaluation of vulnerability with climate data to analyze current and future vulnerabilities in a spatial context is conducted to examine spatial differences in vulnerability. Various multi-scale adaptation strategies are analyzed in respect to the climate change risks to assess the resilient capacity of the community to current and future vulnerabilities.

scholarly journals Study on the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Jingyi Jiang ◽  
Qing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Drought Hazard

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed great threaten to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. Results of the drought hazard intensity index showed that the risk of agricultural drought displayed a negative correlation with the precipitation and kept rising from 1966 to 2011. Risk assessments of yield loss ratio shows that physical vulnerability curve has magnify and reduce function to drought hazard. So improving the capacity of maize to resist drought can help them adapt to drought hazard. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China had great sensitivity to climate change and high probability for severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understanding the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to the climate change.

scholarly journals Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. e0174045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Candida F. Dewes ◽  
Imtiaz Rangwala ◽  
Joseph J. Barsugli ◽  
Michael T. Hobbins ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Methodological Choices

scholarly journals Fuzzy AHP for drought risk assessment in Lam Ta Kong watershed, the north-eastern region of Thailand

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 218-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wijitkosum Saowanee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Soil Salinity ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Soil Factors ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Droughts occur from a combination of natural factors and human activities rather than just a single natural cause. Spatial factors have also heavily influenced the causes of draught. This study was conducted in the Lam Ta Kong watershed, Thailand. In this study, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method was applied to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought and the GIS technique was employed to give full consideration to the ambiguity and uncertainty of the agricultural drought risk. There are five risk factors to consider in the agricultural drought risk assessment and they are divided in a total of fifteen criteria: physical factors (slope gradient and elevation), climatic (rainfall and aridity index), soil (texture, drainage, fertility, erosion, and soil salinity), land utilization (land use and land cover) and water resources (precipitation days, stream density, distance from an irrigation canal, and groundwater volume). These criteria determine the weight and score used to evaluate their parental risk factors. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied together with the triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) method to assess the data obtained from the criteria to achieve the drought risk assessment. The results indicated that the overall risk of the Lam Ta Kong area was at a moderate risk of agricultural drought (50.45%), of which 15.63% of the total area was at a high risk of agricultural drought. Moreover, 0.40% of the total area located at the central part of the watershed was at a very high risk which was due to its saline soil with > 50% dense salt crust. This research indicated that the major factors causing droughts in the watershed were related to the soil factors, especially soil texture, soil fertility and soil salinity. These soil factors were considered as the driving factors of drought. The results of this study can be used for land use planning and water resource management in order to prepare for droughts in the watershed.

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