scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

Drought indices supporting drought management in transboundary watersheds subject to climate alterations

Water Policy ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 865-886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Furat A. M. Al-Faraj ◽  
Miklas Scholz ◽  
Dimitris Tigkas ◽  
Martino Boni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Transboundary River Basin

There is growing concern in Iraq about the inefficiency of reactive drought management practices. Corresponding actions are largely characterized as emergency-based responses that treat the symptoms of drought rather than consider the vulnerability components associated with impacts. The Diyala watershed shared between Iraq and Iran has been used as an example transboundary river basin marked by ineffectiveness of drought management. The standardized precipitation index and the reconnaissance drought index were used to determine the historical meteorological drought episodes and analysis indicated climate change-induced alterations in the area. Spatiotemporal drought maps were drawn, which can be used for the identification of drought prone areas and assist with proactive planning. This paper discusses the underlying causes of the impairments of drought management policies, and the challenges and difficulties accompanying the governance of drought in Iraq. Given the influence of climate change and the upstream anthropogenic pressures, the time has come to adopt a gradual nation-wide transition step to drought risk planning incorporating a management approach at the transboundary scale. Moreover, the institutional and technical water vulnerability components associated with drought management should be considered in an integrated manner. The paper presents a generic technical template to support decision-makers in drought risk management.

scholarly journals Drought risk assessments of water resources systems under climate change: a case study in Southern Taiwan

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 12395-12433 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. C. Yang ◽  
C. Chen ◽  
C. M. Kuo ◽  
H. W. Tseng ◽  
P. S. Yu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Southern Taiwan ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change on drought risk in a water resources system in Southern Taiwan by integrating the weather generator, hydrological model and simulation model of reservoir operation. Three composite indices with multi-aspect measurements of reservoir performance (i.e. reliability, resilience and vulnerability) were compared by their monotonic behaviors to find a suitable one for the study area. The suitable performance index was then validated by the historical drought events and proven to have the capability of being a drought risk index in the study area. The downscaling results under A1B emission scenario from seven general circulation models were used in this work. The projected results show that the average monthly mean inflows during the dry season tend to decrease from the baseline period (1980–1999) to the future period (2020–2039); the average monthly mean inflows during the wet season may increase/decrease in the future. Based on the drought risk index, the analysis results for public and agricultural water uses show that the occurrence frequency of drought may increase and the severity of drought may be more serious during the future period than during the baseline period, which makes a big challenge on water supply and allocation for the authorities of reservoir in Southern Taiwan.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on drought in the Daklak province

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-11
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Quang Nguyen Xuan Chau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Delta Change ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the meteorological drought in the Daklak province. In this study, the meteorological drought was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).From this result, two scensrios fot the precipitation VA1B and B1 were downscaled, from the outputs of 4 GCMs (General Circulation Model): CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1, and HadCM3 using the simple downscaling method (delta change method). The impacts of climate change on the droughts were assessed by comparing the present (1980- 2009) and the future droughts (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099).Results of the study suggested that the future temperature would increase by 0.9-2.8ºC and the future precipitation would decrease by 0.4-4.7% for both A1B and B1 scenarios. Under the future climate scenarios, the frequency and severity of extreme drought would increase. The results obtained in this study could be useful for planning and managing water resources at this region.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Constanze Leemhuis ◽  
Larisa Seregina ◽  
Roderick van der Linden
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Hot Dry Season ◽  
The Impact

This article illustrates the impact of potential future climate scenarios on water quantity in time and space for an East African floodplain catchment surrounded by mountainous areas. In East Africa, agricultural intensification is shifting from upland cultivation into the wetlands due to year-round water availability and fertile soils. These advantageous agricultural conditions might be hampered through climate change impacts. Additionally, water-related risks, like droughts and flooding events, are likely to increase. Hence, this study investigates future climate patterns and their impact on water resources in one production cluster in Tanzania. To account for these changes, a regional climate model ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project was analyzed to investigate changes in climatic patterns until 2060, according to the RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios. The semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was utilized to analyze the impacts on water resources according to all scenarios. Modeling results indicate increasing temperatures, especially in the hot dry season, intensifying the distinctive features of the dry and rainy season. This consequently aggravates hydrological extremes, such as more-pronounced flooding and decreasing low flows. Overall, annual averages of water yield and surface runoff increase up to 61.6% and 67.8%, respectively, within the bias-corrected scenario simulations, compared to the historical simulations. However, changes in precipitation among the analyzed scenarios vary between −8.3% and +22.5% of the annual averages. Hydrological modeling results also show heterogeneous spatial patterns inside the catchment. These spatio-temporal patterns indicate the possibility of an aggravation for severe floods in wet seasons, as well as an increasing drought risk in dry seasons across the scenario simulations. Apart from that, the discharge peak, which is crucial for the flood recession agriculture in the floodplain, is likely to shift from April to May from the 2020s onwards.

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Tian Xian ◽  
Runze Zhao ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Junggar Basin ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Drought Disaster

Drought risk analysis can help improve disaster management techniques, thereby reducing potential drought risk under the impacts of climate change. This study analyses observed and model-simulated spatial patterns of changes in drought risk in vulnerable eco-regions in China during 1988–2017 and 2020–2050 using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. To perform a risk assessment and estimation of a drought disaster, three subsystems—namely hazard, vulnerability and exposure—are assessed in terms of the effects of climate change since the middle of the 21st century: (i) Hazards, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in rainfall averages, temperature averages and evaporation averages; (ii) vulnerability, encompassing land use and mutual transposition between them; (iii) exposure, consisting of socioeconomic, demographic, and farming. The results demonstrated that high hazards continue to be located in the arid zone, high vulnerability levels occur in the Junggar Basin and Inner Mongolia Plateau, and high exposure levels occur Loess Plateau and southern coastal area. In this way, the results provide exhaustive measures for proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Nikolaos Vavlas ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The focus of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources and to find suitable drought indices to identify the occurrence, frequency and severity of the past and future drought events. The Ebbw catchment, Wales, UK was selected for this study. Data for the 1961–2012 period were used as input to the DiCaSM model. Following model calibration and validation, the model was run with UKCP09 future climate scenarios for three periods (30 years each) up to 2099 under three emission scenarios. The reconnaissance drought index, the standardized precipitation index, soil moisture deficit and the wetness index were able to reproduce the past drought events. The data of UKCP09, simple change factors to temperature (± °C) and rainfall (%) using Joint Probability plot and daily values of the weather generator were input to the model. The projections indicated that the streamflow and groundwater recharge are likely to increase in winter and to decrease in spring, summer and autumn. Under all emission scenarios, the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and the streamflow is projected in the 2050s and 2080s under high emission scenario. Moreover, under medium and high emission scenarios, severity and frequency of the drought events are likely to be high. Land use change from grass and/or arable to woodland had significant impact on water resources.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

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