Evaluation of ESV Change under Urban Expansion Based on Ecological Sensitivity: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China

In recent years, ecosystem service values (ESV) have attracted much attention. However, studies that use ecological sensitivity methods as a basis for predicting future urban expansion and thus analyzing spatial-temporal change of ESV are scarce in the region. In this study, we used the CA-Markov model to predict the 2030 urban expansion under ecological sensitivity in the Three Gorges reservoir area based on multi-source data, estimations of ESV from 2000 to 2018 and predictions of ESV losses from 2018 to 2030. Research results: (i) In the concept of green development, the ecological sensitive zone has been identified in Three Gorges reservoir area; it accounts for about 35.86% of the study area. (ii) It is predicted that the 2030 urban land will reach 211,412.51 ha by overlaying the ecological sensitive zone. (iii) The total ESV of Three Gorges Reservoir area showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018 with growth values of about USD 3644.26 million, but the ESVs of 16 districts were decreasing, with Dadukou and Jiangbei having the highest reductions. (iv) New urban land increases by 80,026.02 ha from 2018 to 2030. The overall ESV losses are about USD 268.75 million. Jiulongpo, Banan and Shapingba had the highest ESV losses.