scholarly journals NMDB database and global survey method

2021 ◽  
pp. 137-141
Author(s):  
Petr Yu Gololobov ◽  
Sergey A. Starodubtsev ◽  
Vladislav G. Grigoryev ◽  
Anton S. Zverev
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Subsequent Development ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Neutron Monitors ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
First Time

The method of a global survey developed in the 1970s allows using a world-wide network of neutron monitor stations as a single multidirectional device. Wherein, receiving characteristics of each device, which reflects their geometries and geographical positions, are taken into account. Such an approach makes it possible to define the first two angular moments of the distribution function of cosmic rays in the interplanetary space at each hour of observation. With the creation in 2008/2009 and subsequent development of an international database of neutron monitors NMDB, for the first time it appeared an opportunity to use the global survey method in real-time mode. Such a situation creates a unique possibility to use the results not only for scienti- fic researches but also for space weather forecasting. To use the data of the world-wide network of neutron monitors it is necessary to carry preliminary preparations. Thereby, in the current work, the main attention is attracted to a solution to some practical questions that arise when using the NMDB in real-time.

scholarly journals Space weather: the solar perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Temmer
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Stereo Mission ◽  
Interaction Regions ◽  
Near Future ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

Comparative study of halo CME arrival predictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emiliya Yordanova ◽  
Mateja Dumbovic ◽  
Manuela Temmer ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Jasmina Magdalenic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Halo Cmes ◽  
Speed Prediction

<p>Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are one of the most effective drivers of intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the recent advances in space weather forecasting, the accurate arrival prediction of halo CMEs remains a challenge.  This is because in general CMEs interact with the background solar wind during their propagation in the interplanetary space. In addition, in the case of halo CMEs, the accurate estimation of their kinematics is difficult due to projection effects in the plane-of-sky.</p><p>In this study, we are revisiting the arrival of twelve geoeffective Earth-directed fast halo CMEs using an empirical and a numerical approaches. For this purpose we refine the input to the Drag-based Model (DBM) and to the EUropean Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), which are recently available for users from the ESA Space Situational Awareness Portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int).</p><p>The DBM model has been tested using different values for the input drag parameter.  On average, the predicted arrival times are confined in the range of ± 10 h. The closest arrival to the observed one has been achieved with a drag value higher than the recommended for fast CMEs. Setting a higher drag also helped to obtain a closer to the observed CME arrival speed prediction. These results suggest that the exerted solar wind drag was higher than expected. Further, we are searching for clues about the CME propagation by performing EUHFORIA runs using the same CME kinematics. Preliminary results show that both models perform poorly for CMEs that have possibly undergone CME-CME interaction, underlying again the importance of taking into account the state of the interplanetary space in the CME forecast.</p>

scholarly journals Monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances using the global survey method in real time

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Владислав Григорьев ◽  
Vladislav Grigoryev ◽  
Сергей Стародубцев ◽  
Sergei Starodubtsev ◽  
Петр Гололобов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Interplanetary Medium ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
Worldwide Network

A method for forecasting geomagnetic storms using the realization of the global survey method in real time is presented. The method is based on data from the worldwide network of neutron monitors NMDB. Using this method, we analyze the behavior of components of three-dimensional angular distribution of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium, which were due to the first two spherical harmonics, over the period from 2013 to 2018. We have established that the main parameters that respond to the arrival of geoeffective disturbances of the interplanetary medium at Earth are changes in amplitudes of zonal (north-south) components of cosmic ray distribution. In order to select effective criteria for identifying predictors of geomagnetic disturbances and their possible temporal variations, we have made a retrospective analysis of the relationship between behaviors of the above components and geomagnetic disturbances occurring during the period of interest.

scholarly journals REAL-TIME MONITORING OF COSMIC RAY ANISOTROPY PARAMETERS AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-39
Author(s):  
Anton Zverev ◽  
Vladislav Grigoryev ◽  
Peter Gololobov ◽  
Sergei Starodubtsev
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

SB RAS, using data from the NMDB database, has implemented continuous monitoring of the dynamics of cosmic ray (CR) distribution parameters and the automatic forecasting of geomagnetic disturbance. Monitoring is based on the global survey method, which considers the world-wide network of neutron monitors as a single device oriented in different directions at each measured time. This method provides real-time parameters of nine components of the first two angular moments of the CR distribution function for each hour of observation. This paper discusses methodological aspects related to the use of the global survey method and some results of the forecasting of geomagnetic disturbances for 2017–2018.

scholarly journals REAL-TIME MONITORING OF COSMIC RAY ANISOTROPY PARAMETERS AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 42-45
Author(s):  
Anton Zverev ◽  
Vladislav Grigoryev ◽  
Peter Gololobov ◽  
Sergei Starodubtsev
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

SB RAS, using data from the NMDB database, has implemented continuous monitoring of the dynamics of cosmic ray (CR) distribution parameters and the automatic forecasting of geomagnetic disturbance. Monitoring is based on the global survey method, which considers the world-wide network of neutron monitors as a single device oriented in different directions at each measured time. This method provides real-time parameters of nine components of the first two angular moments of the CR distribution function for each hour of observation. This paper discusses methodological aspects related to the use of the global survey method and some results of the forecasting of geomagnetic disturbances for 2017–2018.

Global Survey Method for the World Network of Neutron Monitors

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 356-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Belov ◽  
E. A. Eroshenko ◽  
V. G. Yanke ◽  
V. A. Oleneva ◽  
M. A. Abunina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survey Method ◽  
Neutron Monitors ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances using the global survey method in real time

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 110-115
Author(s):  
Владислав Григорьев ◽  
Vladislav Grigoryev ◽  
Сергей Стародубцев ◽  
Sergei Starodubtsev ◽  
Петр Гололобов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Interplanetary Medium ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
Worldwide Network

A method for forecasting geomagnetic storms using the realization of the global survey method in real time is presented. The method is based on data from the worldwide network of neutron monitors NMDB. Using this method, we analyze the behavior of components of three-dimensional angular distribution of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium, which were due to the first two spherical harmonics, over the period from 2013 to 2018. We have established that the main parameters that respond to the arrival of geoeffective disturbances of the interplanetary medium at Earth are changes in amplitudes of zonal (north-south) components of cosmic ray distribution. In order to select effective criteria for identifying predictors of geomagnetic disturbances and their possible temporal variations, we have made a retrospective analysis of the relationship between behaviors of the above components and geomagnetic disturbances occurring during the period of interest.

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