scholarly journals 6.2. MACROECONOMIC AND MARKET FACTORS FOR PREDICTING REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE EURO ZONE ON MIXED FREQUENCY DATA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
А.А. Виноградов
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Mixed Frequency ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Mixed Frequency Data

В данной работе исследуется динамика цен на недвижимость в зоне евро. Особенностями рынка недвижимости в зоне евро является разнородность стран, высокие объемы ипотечного рынка. Недвижимость является относительно неликвидным активом, а оценки ее стоимости публикуются реже, чем другие показатели. Актуальность работы заключается в построении модели для цены на недвижимость в зоне евро, которая позволяет построить прогноз и справедливую оценку для динамики цены на недвижимость. Новизной данной статьи является использование модель для данных смешанной частоты (MIDAS), которая позволяет совмещать высокочастотные рыночные показатели и низкочастотные данные по цене недвижимости для прогнозирования цен на жилую и коммерческую недвижимость. Среди факторов, влияющих на рынок недвижимости, были выделены ставки, отражающие состояние денежно-кредитной политики Европейского центрального банка (ЕЦБ) и объем активов ЕЦБ, отражающий меры нестандартной денежно-кредитной политики. В результате на основе высокочастотных данных была построена модель для цен на недвижимость, которая дает более точный прогноз, чем линейная модель, основанная только на квартальном росте валового внутреннего продукта зоны евро. Полученная модель может быть использована как для принятия управленческих решений, исходя из прогноза динамики цен на недвижимость, так и оценки справедливой динамики цен на недвижимость в зоне евро на основе фундаментальных факторов. This paper examines the dynamics of real estate prices in the euro area. The features of the real estate market in the euro area is the heterogeneity of countries, high volumes of the mortgage market. Real estate is a relatively illiquid asset, and estimates of its value are published less frequently than other indicators. The relevance of the work is to build a model for real estate prices in the euro area, which allows one to build a forecast and a fair assessment for the price dynamics of real estate. The novelty of this article is the use of the mixed frequency data sampling model (MIDAS), which allows one to combine high-frequency market indicators and low-frequency data on the price of real estate, to predict the prices of residential and commercial real estate. Among the factors affecting the real estate market, the rates that reflect the state of the ECB's monetary policy and the volume of the ECB's assets reflecting the measures of a non-standard monetary policy were identified. As a result, based on high-frequency data, a model for real estate prices was built, which gives a more accurate forecast than a linear model based on only quarterly GDP growth in the euro area. The resulting model can be used both for making managerial decisions based on the forecast of real estate price dynamics, and for assessing the fair dynamics of real estate prices in the euro area based on fundamental factors.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Applicability of Statistical Methods in Studies on Price Dynamics on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Kokot ◽  
Marcin Bas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The specific character of the real estate market is the reason why observations of transaction prices seen as statistical variables are taken in a non-standard way. In the traditional approach each time period or specific moments of time are attributed with one observation of a studied variable per one object. In the case of the real estate market, this is not possible since transactions relate to different objects, i.e., properties, and occur at irregular, or even random, moments. This is why traditional methods used to examine the dynamics of economic phenomena must be adapted to specific conditions on the real estate market. Keeping that in mind, the aim of this paper is to adapt classical statistical examination methods of dynamics to specific conditions of the real estate market followed by the actual examination of the dynamics of real estate prices in three sub-segments of the housing market in Szczecin. On its basis, the authors evaluate various methods of examining real estate price dynamics in terms of their applicability in real estate appraisal procedures and, in a broader perspective, present characteristic phenomena that can be observed on the real estate market.

scholarly journals Use of Statistical Models for Simulating Transactions on the Real Estate Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Cellmer ◽  
Katarzyna Szczepankowska
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The regularities and relations between real estate prices and the factors that shape them may be presented in the form of statistical models, thanks to which the diagnosis and prediction of prices is possible. A formal description of empirical observation presented in the form of regressive models also offers a possibility for creating certain phenomena in a virtual dimension. Market phenomena cannot be fully described with the use of determinist models, which clarify only a part of price variation. The predicted price is, in this situation, a special case of implementing a random function. Assuming that other implementations are also possible, regressive models may constitute a basis for simulation, which results in the procurement of a future image of the market. Simulation may refer both to real estate prices and transaction prices. The basis for price simulation may be familiarity with the structure of the analyzed market data. Assuming that this structure has a static character, simulation of real estate prices is performed on the basis of familiarity with the probability distribution and a generator of random numbers. The basis for price simulation is familiarity with model parameters and probability distribution of the random factor. The study presents the core and theoretical description of a transaction simulation on the real estate market, as well as the results of an experiment regarding transaction prices of office real estate located within the area of the city of Olsztyn. The result of the study is a collection of virtual real properties with known features and simulated prices, constituting a reflection of market processes which may take place in the near future. Comparison between the simulated characteristic and actual transactions in turn allows the correctness of the description of reality by the model to be verified.

scholarly journals The use of mean values for reporting real estate prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 64 (04) ◽  
pp. 513-532
Author(s):  
Melita Ulbl ◽  
Andraž Muhič
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Special Challenge ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
The One

The proper and unambiguous reporting of the real estate market is one of the main requirements for ensuring its transparency. Reporting on the prices of real estate realised on the market is a special challenge here. For this purpose, averages are generally used, requiring both the reporter and the reader to be well acquainted with the rules of individual types of averages on the one hand and the specificities and heterogeneity of the real estate market on the other. In this paper, we present the specifics of individual mean values that can be used for this purpose. These characteristics are analysed in more detail and presented in the case of the Slovenian housing market. The purpose of this paper is to present the dilemmas faced in Slovenia when reporting on real estate prices on the market and present the solutions that the Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia will begin to introduce in its reports on the real estate market.

scholarly journals Construction of social indicators using information measuring principles. Case study of real estate prices simulation model

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandras Krylovas ◽  
Natalja Kosareva ◽  
Laura Gudelytė
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Testing Tool ◽  
Real Estate Prices

The article analyses the data concerning the real estate market of last years in Vilnius. The approach of dichotomous diagnostic operators as general testing tool creation from the empirical data is used and deterministic clusterization of catchments is provided. Based on this analysis, questionnaire concerning the information about catchment is constructed for the evaluation of aggregated appartment price.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF PRICING FACTORS IN REAL ESTATE MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-85
Author(s):  
Maria Chernyshova ◽  
Arina Malenkaya ◽  
Tatyana Mezhuyeva
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Pricing Factors ◽  
Real Estate Prices

In the real estate market price depends on supply and demand is formed under the influence of social, economic and physical factors. The article presents the results of the analysis of pricing factors in the real estate market, the forecast of real estate prices in 2019.

scholarly journals Research of the problems of project financing of construction of residential real estate using the escrow account mechanism

2021 ◽  
pp. 176-182
Author(s):  
I. A. Pantyukov ◽  
V. A. Opekunov
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Shared Equity ◽  
Real Estate Prices

The article shows the current situation in the real estate market. The publication considers the main problems of financing investment and construction projects, as well as the use of the escrow account mechanism. The study also proposes the main ways to solve the existing issues. The main focus of the research paper is on the lack of explanations regarding the ability of banks to dispose of money in escrow accounts, credit conditions, as well as the growth in real estate prices when developers switch to a new mechanism of settlement with shareholders. In addition, the authors analysed the pricing policy of developers before and after amendments to Federal Law No. 214-FZ, dated on December 30, 2004 “On Participation in Shared-Equity Construction of Apartment Buildings and Other Real Estate Objects and on Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation”. The study presents the possible consequences of introducing amendments to the law, switching to escrow accounts.

Normalisation of the Speculative Frame Method and Its Application to the Housing Market in Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka ◽  
◽  
Radosław Wisniewski ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Frame Method ◽  
Real Estate Prices

This article proposes the normalisation of the speculative frame method for identifying real estate bubbles, price shocks, and other disturbances in the real estate market. This index-based method relies on time series data and real estate prices. In this article, the speculative frame method was elaborated and normalised with the use of equations for normalising data sets and research methodologies. The method is discussed on the example of the Polish housing market.

Influence Factors of Chinese Real Estate

2013 ◽  
Vol 405-408 ◽  
pp. 3391-3395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Li Wang ◽  
Shan Hua
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Price ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Regulation Policy ◽  
Process Of Urbanization ◽  
Real Estate Prices

This paper studied that the factors influencing Chinese real estate price. And that the land prices, the macroeconomic situation, the annual income of the households, the process of urbanization, the credit policy, the psychological expectations of consumers, the market investment or speculation, the governments regulation policy etc, Are all the influence factors of real estate prices. And the analysis results to develop appropriate policy recommendations for the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market.

scholarly journals Effect Analysis of Real Estate Price and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Study Based on China Macroeconomic Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Su ◽  
Li Lin ◽  
Shaozhen Chen ◽  
Lin Li
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Housing System ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998, China's real estate market has been gradually marketized. A large number of demand-side purchases that were suppressed by the planned economy were released. The rapidly rising real estate prices affected the People's Bank of China's monetary policy through Tobin's Q and the financial accelerator. This paper establishes a VAR model to analyze the policy factors and find out “land finance” has promoted the rise of real estate prices to a certain extent and the regulation of the real estate market lags behind; real estate prices can interfere with the effect of monetary policy which rising real estate prices increase the uncertainty of monetary policy. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions of the monetary policy and local fiscal revenue.

scholarly journals Real Estate Exotic Options based on Black-Scholes model (BSM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 36-40
Author(s):  
Yihang Dong ◽  
Pengyun Wang ◽  
Weixin Zhang ◽  
Yixuan He
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Exotic Options ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Black Scholes Model ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

This paper analyzed the issue of high housing prices in China in view of exotic options using the traditional BSM and improved it while applying it to the current situation in the real estate market. A certain set time frame in the purchase of the options with real estate prices was designed in the implementation of exotic option pricings to ease the speculative pressures caused by high housing prices.

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