scholarly journals RISK ANALYSIS IN THE INVESTMENTS OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS/RIZIKOS ANALIZĖS REIKŠMĖ STATYBOS INVESTICINIAMS PROJEKTAMS

1999 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-67
Author(s):  
Rima Tamošiūnienė
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Point Analysis ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
Reduction Methods ◽  
Technical Risks ◽  
Breakeven Point

Lithuanian economy transformation into a market economy extremely increased the risk of enterprises. Transition from a producer market to a consumer market caused the technological innovations in construction business. It needs long-term investments. So the management of such investments risk is a problem of today. The paper deals with indentifying conceptual problems of risk and uncertainty definition as well as indicators for the quantitative risk management. Some aspects of the application of the risk management ideology which is thought as risk analysis and risk reduction are discussed. Risk analysis includes methods such as sensitivity analysis, breakeven point analysis, mathematical programming methods, scenario analysis, Monte-Carlo technique etc. There are many types of risk in business. Risks can be classified as external unforeseeable risks, external foreseeable (but not determined) risks, operating risks, technical risks, legal risks etc. The first step in risk management is the risk analysis, then follows the application of risk reduction methods.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PRODUKTIVITAS METODE PELAKSANAAN PENGECORAN BETON READY MIX PADA BALOK DAN PELAT LANTAI GEDUNG

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariany Frederika ◽  
Ida Ayu Rai Widhiawati
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Cost Comparison ◽  
Floor Slabs ◽  
Point Analysis ◽  
Implementation Method ◽  
Break Even Point ◽  
Concrete Pump ◽  
Breakeven Point ◽  
Storey Building ◽  
Ready Mix Concrete

Abstract: Implementation method technology of multi-storey building concrete construction is experiencing significant growth, both in material processing and casting equipment.  Several casting equipment including concrete lift  and concrete pump have  different productivities  which contribute to time and cost.  This research aims to analyze the productivity of casting equipment, time and cost required, as well as the break-even point of casting method of ready mix concrete application on the beams and the floor slabs of buildings, particularly on the second- floor, third- floor and forth-floor using concrete lift and concrete pump. Data was obtained by conducting interviews and observations concerning casting implementation of building construction projects that use K-300 ready- mix concrete.  Regression and Correlation analysis are used to obtain time and cost comparison between both method of casting implementation, as well as Break Even Point analysis to obtain breakeven point of casting volume with regards to cost and time. The analysis showed that casting productivities  using lift on  first, second and third floor  are 7,166 m3/h, 5,945 m3/h, 5,125 m3/h, while the productivities using concrete pump on  first, second and third floor  are 36 m3/h, 30 m3/h , 24 m3/hour. Cost comparison of 1 m3 increment of casting using concrete lift and concrete pump is  Rp. 99 330: Rp.19.000 (5.23: 1),  while time ratio is  8.272 minutes: 2,172 minutes (3.8: 1). Breakeven point analysis towards casting cost showed that the second floor which has volume greater than 95.89 m3,  using concrete pump method is more optimal than concrete-lift.

Risk Management in Work Activities at Ammonia Plant Fertilizer Production Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 196
Author(s):  
Dhea Rizky Novandhini ◽  
M. Affan Mahfudz ◽  
Indriati Paskarini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Fertilizer Production ◽  
Ammonia Plant ◽  
Production Industry

 Introduction: PT X is one of the companies in fertilizer production industry. There are two high-risk activities that endanger the safety and health of workers, namely supervision of welding and oil level checking in ammonia plant field of PT X. The purpose of this research was to apply risk management to the activities. Method: This research was a descriptive study which was carried out in observation using a cross sectional design. Variables in this study included hazard identification, basic risk analysis, risk control that has been done, existing risk analysis, and risk reduction assessment. The tools used for the data collection were observation sheets, interview guide sheets, and Job Safety Analysis sheets. Data that has been obtained through observation and interviews was processed using Fine (1971) semi quantitative technique. Results: The results of hazard identification were known to have as many as 6 potential hazards. The assessment results in the basic risk analysis showed that the initial risk level consisted of 3 risks with very high level, 2 risks with a substantial level and 1 risk with priority 3 level. After the risk control effort was applied, the results of the assessment in the existing risk analysis showed that the level of risk has decreased significantly. Conclusion: The value of risk reduction of each potential hazard results decreases by 95%, 88.89%, 85%, 93.33%, 66.67%, and 75%.Keywords: ammonia plant, fertilizer production industry, risk management

scholarly journals System dynamic modeling of risk management in construction projects: A systematic literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Endit Wardito ◽  
◽  
Humiras Hardi Purba ◽  
Aleksander Purba ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
Social Risk ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Research Problems ◽  
Technical Risks ◽  
External Risk

This literature review discusses risk management research with System Dynamic modeling. Literature is reviewed by summarizing the research that has been done and examining research findings, research relationships, and research problems that require further research. The risk management paper with System Dynamic modeling (2000-2020) is reviewed by dividing risk into 3 groups, namely: internal risk, external risk, and project risk. Each group is further divided into technical risks and non-technical risks. The results of the study stated that risk management with System Dynamic modeling has not been widely used as evidenced by research (2000-2020); there are only 25 papers that match the keywords and can be written reviews. Ten internal risk papers include: project members, location risk, document risk & information. External risk papers are only found in 2 papers that discuss: weather risk and social risk, while the project risks are found in 13 papers discussing: cost risk, time risk, work quality risk, and construction risk.

Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2018 ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Infrastructure Project

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

STAKEHOLDERS’ RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

2018 ◽  
pp. 143-148
Author(s):  
Sergey Kolankov ◽  
Nadezhda Rubtsova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Individual Project ◽  
Iso 31000 ◽  
The Given

Objective: To consider the risks both from the viewpoint of potential losses and implementation of extra opportunities. To analyze the aims of investment construction projects being one of the vital risk characteristics, State Standard R ISO 31000–2010. Risk management. Foundations and management. To state the main principles of risk analysis, as well as to perform the assessment of parties of the given process: proprietors (users for the purpose of one’s own requirements), investors, lessees, developers, professional (trust) managers. Methods: The methods of generalization, comparison and economic analysis were applied. Results: The notion of risks, as well as the concepts of risks, connected with a person’s wish to avoid the loss and acquire additional opportunities, was defined; investment construction projects, as well as the notion of “uncertainty” and the process of risk management were described. The classification of risks, their description by the main stakeholders of the investment construction projects was given. Practical importance: The conclusion was made on the appropriateness of detecting possible sources of business development during risk analysis, as well as running investment construction projects, personalization of risks for individual project stakeholders, expert judgement concept of obtained information feasibility on the extent of risk.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 4149-4164 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Himmelsbach ◽  
R. Glaser ◽  
J. Schoenbein ◽  
D. Riemann ◽  
B. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Upper Rhine

Abstract. This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant – and probably at last annoying – reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side – an interesting fact – especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

scholarly journals A Techno-Economic Computational Tool for Power Generation Project Assessments and Life Cycle Risk Management

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Gayraud ◽  
Riti Singh
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbines

The growing desire for sponsors of power generation projects to share risk with the lenders has promoted the use of computational tools, simulating and evaluating from a techno-economic viewpoint long-term, high-risk projects. Such models need to include reliable engine diagnostics, life-cycle costing and risk analysis technique. This paper presents a Decision Support System (DSS) for the assessment of power generation projects using industrial gas turbines. The software, programmed in Visual Basic in Excel, runs the object-oriented software Pythia which has been developed by the Department of Propulsion, Power and Automotive Engineering at Cranfield University and which can perform gas turbine performance calculations, including off-design conditions, with or without degradation effects providing thus very reliable engine diagnostics. Moreover, a life cycle cost, assessed using manufacturer methodology for instance, can be integrated into the economic model. The degree of uncertainty relating to technical and economic factors is assessed using a normal distribution and the level of risk can then be evaluated using a risk analysis technique based upon the Monte Carlo Method. The DSS therefore provides charts and result tables to support the decision making, allowing the user to achieve a good level of confidence using new techniques of risk management.

scholarly journals Safety Risk Management in Dam Construction Projects: Literature Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Dinal Aulia ◽  
Lusi Marifah ◽  
Ikbal Yurrazak ◽  
Humiras Hardi Purba
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Technical Factor ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
Safety Risk

Safety risk assessment in dams is a traditional and modern approach to the engineering process of dams on safety systems so as to produce a design history that has a good overall record and integrity. With this approach for both old and new dams, this safety risk assessment aims to determine whether the risk the hazard can be tolerated or not, if it cannot be tolerated then there must be a solution for action to reduce the risk of danger so that the safety of the dam can be obtained. The existing risk assessment can be used as the basis for the construction of the dam to its maintenance, in this study discussed risk assessment safety on dams located in several countries such as in Asia, Europe and America. The methods implemented include the preparation of safety risks, risk analysis, risk evaluation and safety risk management. Based on research results The main risk factor that causes safety responsibilities is the Contractor's responsibility, namely the Non-technical project factor (40.54%), the 2nd rank is the Undecided Responsibility due to internal technical factors (35.13%), the 3rd rank is the technical project factor namely Contractor's Responsibility (10.8%), Rank 4 is external technical factor and external non-technical factor, the last risk factor is internal non-technical factor (2.7%) namely Joint Responsibility. Keywords : Risk safety management, risk assessment, risk analysis, risk evaluation, dam project

scholarly journals Influence of Subcontractor Risk Management on Quality Performance of Building Construction Projects in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-197
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Adinyira ◽  
Kofi Agyekum ◽  
James Cofie Danku ◽  
Prince Addison ◽  
James Cofie Danku
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Building Construction ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Quality Performance ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Technical Risks

This study intended to examine the influence subcontractor risk management has on the quality performance of building construction projects. Using a quantitative research method, five hypothesised constructs were tested. The views of 139 Heads of Works for Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs) in Ghana were elicited using a structured questionnaire. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) based on structural equation model (SEM) was adopted in analysing the data obtained. The findings suggest that the management of four (financial risks, resource risks, technical risks and managerial risks) out of the five categories of risks positively influenced the quality performance of building construction projects. Relationship risks showed no significant influence on construction quality performance. The study showed quantitatively the effects of sub-contractor risks on quality performance. It provides a vivid relationship between the concept of sub-contracting and quality performance. Therefore, failure to properly manage risks sourced from sub-contractors on a building construction project will have a major adverse consequence on the quality performance of the project. This study further advances efforts at understanding the link between sub-contractor management and project performance with a particular focus on the management of risks emanating from the use of subcontractors on building projects.

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