scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Food Price Volatility and Households’ Welfare in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 49-60
Author(s):  
Onwusiribe Ndubuisi Chigozirim ◽  
Nto Philips Okore ◽  
Oteh Ogbonnaya Ukeh ◽  
Agwu Nnanna Mba
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

One of the most important economic factors in food choice is the price. Food dynamics' value is a subject of controversies and opinions, especially price issues, and sensitivity is often peculiar to seasons and market forces. Price dynamics have the potential to introduce and change consumptions, thus affecting household welfare. This study examined the dynamics of food price volatility and households' welfare in Nigeria from 1990: Q1 to 2019: Q4. We sourced the study data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank (WB). We estimated the quadratic trend equation, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. Food prices and depth of food deficit had a significant short-run impact on the households' welfare. Policymakers should focus on the short-term benefits while formulating policies aimed at households' welfare because policies aimed at the household level are impactful in the short-run compared to the long-run.

scholarly journals An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Youwang Zhang ◽  
Chongguang Li ◽  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of international soybean price and energy price on Chinese soybean price. Applied to monthly data over the period of 2007-2017, results show that both international soybean price and energy price have significant impacts on Chinese soybean price, while the impact from global soybean market tends to be more profound. First, we find that in the long run the cumulative pass-through elasticity of Chinese soybean price to international soybean price is greater than the elasticity to international energy price. Second, in the short run, international soybean price shocks transmit more quickly to Chinese soybean price. Our results shed new light on the determinants of soybean price volatility in China, and provide meaningful implications on the price risk management for market participants and policy makers.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of oil price fluctuations on food price in high and low-income oil exporting countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 458-468
Author(s):  
Chen Ding ◽  
Umar Muhammad Gummi ◽  
Shan-bing Lu ◽  
Asiya Muazu
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Oil exporting economies were the most hit by the recent oil price shock that spills on the food market in an increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment. This paper examines and compares sub-samples [before crisis <br />(2000 Q1–2013 Q1) and during crisis (2013 Q2–2019 Q4)] as to the impact of oil price on food prices in high- and low-income oil-exporting countries. We found an inverse relationship between oil and food prices in the long run based on full samples and sub-samples in high-income countries. The story is different during the crisis period: in low-income countries and all the countries combined, oil and food prices co-move in the long run as measured by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our findings suggest that economic structure and uncertain events (crises) dictate the behaviour and relationship between food and oil markets. Food and oil prices may drift away in the short-run, but market forces turn them toward equilibrium in the long-run. Moreover, low-income countries are indifferent in both periods due to limited capacity to balance the increasing demand for and supply of food items.

scholarly journals Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mourad Zmami ◽  
Ousama Ben-Salha
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

The macroeconomic outcomes of oil price fluctuations have been at the forefront of the debate among economists, financial analysts and policymakers over the last decades. Among others, the oil price–food price nexus has particularly received a great deal of attention. While an abundant body of literature has focused on the linear relationship between oil price and food price, little is known regarding the nonlinear interactions between them. The aim of this paper is to conduct aggregated and disaggregated analyses of the impact of the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices on international food prices between January 1990 and October 2017. The empirical investigation is based on the estimation of linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The findings confirm the presence of asymmetries since the overall food price is only affected by positive shocks on oil price in the long-run. While the dairy price index reacts to both positive and negative changes of oil price, the impact of oil price increases is found to be greater. Finally, the asymmetry is present for some other agricultural commodity prices in the short-run, since they respond only to oil price decreases. All in all, the study concludes that studies assuming the presence of a symmetric impact of oil price on food price might be flawed. The findings are important for the undertaking of future studies and the design of international and national policies in the fight against food insecurity.

Export pricing and the macroeconomic effects of US import tariffs

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. R39-R45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulf D. Slopek
Keyword(s):  
Export Prices ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact

We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as prices increase while output declines. Due to exchange rate movements and changes in the prices of traded goods, prices and output in other economies tend to move in the same direction. We demonstrate that the size and persistence of the macroeconomic impact following the introduction of new tariffs critically hinge upon the specific assumptions underlying the behaviour of export prices. If foreign exporters are concerned about their net-of-tariff prices, there will be little adjustment after the initial surge in tariff-inclusive export prices. As a result, the adverse macroeconomic impact will be large and persistent both in the US and abroad. While additional government spending financed by tariff revenues could mitigate the adverse impact on the protectionist economy in the short run, retaliation by its trading partners would worsen the outcome. Our simulations also raise doubts about the ability of protectionist measures to rein in global imbalances.

scholarly journals Global Food Prices trends behavior and Managing Food Inflation in India: Strategic policy options and key issues

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-298
Author(s):  
U Arabi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Food Commodities ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Global Food

The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, including in India, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. In many countries and regions, food price inflation is higher than aggregate inflation and contributing to underlying inflationary pressures. Food grain prices have more than doubled between January 2006 and June 2008. More than 60 percent of this increase has occurred since January 2008 alone. Although the pass-through of rising global prices does not translate into an immediate and proportionate rise in domestic price levels, due to various factors such as a weakening dollar, domestic infrastructure, and price stabilization policies; increased food price volatility is expected even to continue for the presumable future and there is also possibility of further long run uncertainty due to climate change. With domestic prices rising, private consumption takes a plunge. Expectedly, global food price increases translate to higher prices in developing Asia, including in India particularly since food carries a large weight in the CPI of many of the region’s economies. In fact a number of factors have contributed to the rise in food prices in general; but the increase in energy prices and the related increases in prices of fertilizer and chemicals, which are either produced from energy or are heavy users of energy in their production process etc. are crucial. This has increased the cost of production, which ultimately gets reflected in higher food prices. Higher energy prices have also increased the cost of transportation, and increased the incentive to produce biofuels and encouraged policy support for bio-fuels production. The increase in bio fuels production has not only increased demand for food commodities, but also led to large land use changes which reduced supplies of wheat and crops that compete with food commodities used for biofuels in countries like India. Against these backdrops, this paper focus on the movements in global food price trends and its impact on management of food supply and security, the factors responsible for the rise in food prices in India and its impact on the issue of food security and sustainability of management of food economy of India. The paper concludes that in the short to medium run, the importance of safety nets to secure food for the needy is very much needed and in the long run, the notion of food security should move beyond a relatively static focus on food availability and access to one of higher productivity. Thus, as the majority of the poor in developing India live in rural areas and depend on agriculture, higher agricultural growth will provide food security by increasing supply, reducing prices, and raising incomes of poorer farm households in the near future

scholarly journals FOOD PRICE, LOSSES AND LOGISTICS AFFECTING DIET DIVERSIFICATION AND FOOD SECURITY

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-74
Author(s):  
Eduardo Botti Abbade
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Food Loss ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Food Deficit ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Domestic Food

This study aimed to investigate the impact of logistics performance, domestic food price, and food loss on diet diversification and depth of food deficit, as well as the impact of diet diversification and depth of food deficit on the prevalence of undernourishment worldwide. This investigation adopts a quantitative approach based on available data obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Global Food Security Index, and the World Bank Group. This study uses correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis as the analytical procedures. In a global perspective, evidence suggests that weak logistics performance tends to increase food loss, and domestic food price has a significant impact on diet diversification, as well as the domestic food price implies a significant increase in depth of food deficit in the world’s populations. Food price is the factor that most impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, severely affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide. Reducing food prices has the potential to promote greater diet diversification for populations worldwide, contributing to promote global food security. This study highlights the necessity to develop an improved and efficient global food system, capable of reducing food prices, promote a cleaner food production and deliver improved nutrition and health for world populations. This investigation sustains that food price severely impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide.

scholarly journals The Transmission of Global Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices in a Commodity Import-Dependent Country: Evidence from Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32
Author(s):  
Mounir El-Karimi ◽  
El-Ghini Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses the Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test to examine the effect of global oil and food price changes on the inflation in Morocco over the period from 1998Q1 to 2018Q1. The results show significant transmission from oil and food prices to domestic inflation. Specifically, the food prices are shown more important than oil prices in explaining inflation in the short-run, which reflects the high weight of food in the consumption basket. However, the effect of oil prices on inflation is much more persistent than the effect of food prices. Furthermore, the impact of commodity price shocks on inflation exhibits asymmetries. The oil price hikes affect more weakly the inflation than oil price decreases, whereas the food price increases are more transmitted to inflation than food price decreases. Our findings may provide useful information to researchers and policymakers in formulating more appropriate monetary policy.

scholarly journals Links between food price behaviour and nutrition in the developing world

SURG Journal ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
Bethany Woods
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Commodity ◽  
Global Food

With the recent financial crisis and its enduring fallout, questions surrounding the state of global food security have become more pressing. A key element influencing the nutritional status of the world’s poor is price behavior within global food commodity markets. In recent decades, food commodity markets have experienced both significant price increases, and an increase in volatility. These price trends have had significant impacts on the diversity of diets in impoverished households worldwide, which in turn has impacted nutrition and health. This paper will discuss the causes behind recent trends in food commodity prices, and the extent of their impact on food security and nutrition. Specifically, it will address the impact of food price increases and the uncertainty induced by food price volatility on household food consumption and nutrition. Micronutrient intake is the focus of the nutritional discussion of this work, and variations of consumption behavior in various regions and within different household dynamics are all taken into account. Existing policy actions are discussed in terms of the frequency of their implementation, the factors encouraging or deterring their implementation, and their intended and unintended consequences. Finally, the paper concludes with suggestions for future actions and areas for future research.

scholarly journals Determinants of food price inflation in Finland

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Irz ◽  
Jyrki Niemi ◽  
Liu Xing
Keyword(s):  
Food Chain ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006-8 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Although the impact of farm commodity price shocks on the final consumer is mitigated by a large degree of processing as well as the complex structure of the food chain, little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a co-integration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. However, highly volatile energy prices are also important in explaining food price variability. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation is dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document