scholarly journals CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY AND INSOLVENCY PREDICTION MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1039-1056
Author(s):  
Alina Daniela Voda ◽  
Gabriela Dobrotă ◽  
Diana Mihaela Țîrcă ◽  
Dănuț Dumitru Dumitrașcu ◽  
Dan Dobrotă
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Insolvency Risk ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Classification Information ◽  
Competitive Economy

In any competitive economy, the risk of bankruptcy is pervasive. The research aims to contribute in improving the predictive power of bankruptcy and insolvency risk among companies by introducing new methods of processing and validation. This paper investigates the extensive application of the Z score model for predicting the economic-financial stability of Romanian companies in the manufacturing and extractive industries. A list of 37 financial indicators determined on the basis of the balance sheet data of 80 companies for the period 2015–2018 was used. Stepwise Least Squares Estimation through the Forward method allowed the identification of the most relevant ones. Canonical discriminant analysis and sensitivity analyzes were introduced to test the predictive power of the model. The new model identified allows both the prediction of bankruptcy and insolvency risk. This study contributes to the literature by testing variables in relation to financial difficulties and by including other classification information. The robustness of the determined canonical discriminant function was verified by testing the model on two other samples.

Moderation Before the Storm

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Current State ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment

This chapter provides an overview of the macroeconomic environment since 2000. The era is broken down into three periods: 2000–2006, 2007–2010, and 2011–present. Warnings of an imminent crisis were present before 2007, but generally they were ignored by self-satisfied policymakers. Pre-crisis, inflation control was the once rising and, seemingly, preeminent monetary policy strategy. A review, both pre- and post-GFC, of a wide variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators is included, with discussion of lesser known variables such as proxies for central bank communication and balance sheet indicators. These clearly enable us to identify interventions by central banks while also highlighting areas of continuing concern. In some respects (e.g. concerns about financial stability), everything has changed post-crisis, but in other respects (e.g. monetary policy strategy) fewer changes are apparent. The chapter concludes by arguing that there are reasons to be apprehensive about the current state of monetary policy and central banking.

scholarly journals Financial distress in Brazilian banks: an early warning model,

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (77) ◽  
pp. 312-331
Author(s):  
Paulo Sérgio Rosa ◽  
Ivan Ricardo Gartner
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Early Warning Model ◽  
Warning Model

ABSTRACT This study aims to propose an early warning model for predicting financial distress events in Brazilian banking institutions. Initially, a set of economic-financial indicators is evaluated, suggested by the risk management literature for identifying situations of bank insolvency and exclusively taking public information into account. For this, multivariate logistic regressions are performed, using as independent variables financial indicators involving capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity. The empirical analysis was based on a sample of 142 financial institutions, including privately and publicly held and state-owned companies, using monthly data from 2006 to 2014, which resulted in panel data with 12,136 observations. In the sample window there were nine cases of Brazilian Central Bank intervention or mergers and acquisitions motivated by financial distress. The results were evaluated based on the estimation of the in-sample parameters, out-of-sample tests, and the early warning model signs for a 12-month forecast horizon. These obtained true positive rates of 81%, 94%, and 89%, respectively. We conclude that typical balance-sheet indicators are relevant for the early warning signs of financial distress in Brazilian banks, which contributes to the literature on financial intermediary credit risk, especially from the perspective of bank supervisory agencies acting towards financial stability.

scholarly journals Ways to Assess and Improve the Financial Sustainability of Russian Organizations Development

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1568-1571
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Objective Condition ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Business Entities

In the implementation of production activities, the objective condition for the sustainable development of business entities is a comprehensive approach to the analysis of financial indicators of the organization. The problem of ensuring sustainable growth has been relevant for several decades and is the subject of close attention of Western and domestic scientists. The work clarifies the methodological tools relating to the assessment of competitive positions in the domestic market, provided that solvency is maintained. The essence of sustainable development at the macro and micro levels is revealed. The main focus is on the assessment of financial stability indicators as an information base for making effective management decisions. The paper discusses the theoretical foundations of the analysis of liquidity and solvency of companies. The types of the state of liquidity of the balance sheet of the company are clarified. The essence, as well as the relationship of solvency and liquidity, as one of the main areas of the financial condition of the organization is revealed. An algorithm for determining the potential solvency of an organization is presented; a mechanism for increasing the financial return on assets is considered. On the example of the organization of the building complex, the indicators of financial indicators were evaluated, critical values were determined for the studied indicators. A set of measures to improve financial performance is proposed. The presented material may be interesting for the development of public policy instruments for the implementation of the concept of sustainable development of the regional system.

scholarly journals Management of the monitoring system in financial projects of organizations

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 316-320
Author(s):  
Volodymyr GriGorenko ◽  
Tetyana Kadylnykova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Building Systems ◽  
Rational Version ◽  
Function Calculation ◽  
Software Information ◽  
Made In

The article considers the basics of building systems for monitoring financial projects, which are based on an algorithm that determines the project actions, their sequence, the composition of the executors, funds and resources needed to perform these actions. The use of monitoring systems in the management of financial projects can minimize the risk of errors made in the early stages of development, and facilitates various project parameters. The main functions that will be performed by the system of monitoring financial projects are as follows: adding, editing, reviewing information of election financial statements, results of balance sheet items; registration, users, editing user information; authorization in the system using login and password; password recovery function; calculation of indicators of financial stability of the project; determination of financial stability of the project on the basis of financial indicators; adding, editing information in the project; view, edit information by the administrator about clients registered in the system. Creation and management of the system of monitoring of financial projects allow: to establish the necessity of construction and expediency of realization of the financial project; determine what types of work, in which departments of the organization and in what order they should be performed, by the financial project; choose the most rational version of the database and all types of its support (technical, software, information, organizational, linguistic, mathematical, legal); determine the optimal composition of methods and means of implementation about a particular organization.

FRAUD TRIANGLE ANALYSES IN DETECTING FRAUDULENT FINANCIAL STATEMENT USING FRAUD SCORE MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-44
Author(s):  
Mariati ◽  
Emmy Indrayani
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Fraud Triangle ◽  
Financial Statement Fraud ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Score Model

Company’s financial condition reflected in the financial statements. However, there are many loopholes in the financial statements which can become a chance for the management and certain parties to commit fraud on the financial statements. This study aims to detect financial statement fraud as measured using fraud score model that occurred in issuers entered into the LQ-45 index in 2014-2016 with the use of six independent variables are financial stability, external pressure, financial target, nature of industry, ineffective monitoring and rationalization. This study using 27 emiten of LQ-45 index during 2014-2016. However, there are some data outlier that shall be removed, thus sample results obtained 66 data from 25 companies. Multiple linear regression analysis were used in this study. The results showed that the financial stability variables (SATA), nature of industry (RECEIVBLE), ineffective monitoring (IND) and rationalization (ITRENDLB) proved to be influential or have the capability to detect financial statement fraud. While the external pressure variables (DER) and financial target (ROA) are not able to detect the existence of financial statement fraud. Simultaneously all variables in this study were able to detect significantly financial statement fraud.

Unrecognized Deferred Taxes: Evidence from the U.K.

2004 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Gordon ◽  
Peter R. Joos
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Deferred Taxes ◽  
Deferred Tax

We examine whether U.K. managers use the flexibility provided under the partial method for deferred taxes to measure unrecognized deferred taxes opportunistically. We first test whether firm-specific operational and opportunistic factors are associated with the level of unrecognized deferred taxes. The tests provide evidence certain U.K. managers opportunistically measure deferred taxes to manage leverage, consistent with arguments by commentators that deferred taxes heavily influence leverage indicators that play a prominent role in the U.K. contracting framework. Because the proper identification and measurement of both operational and opportunistic determinants of unrecognized deferred taxes influence our tests, we additionally investigate whether unrecognized taxes relate to future deferred tax reversals and future operating profitability of the firm. These tests show the components of deferred taxes predict both future deferred tax reversals and indicators of future profitability of the firm as predicted. Taken together, our results indicate that, on average, the existence of balance sheet management does not nullify the predictive power of (unrecognized) deferred taxes for future deferred tax reversals and for profitability measures. One implication of the results is that the recent U.K. standard change eliminating the partial provision method for deferred taxes potentially has reduced the usefulness of deferred tax disclosures.

Money growth variability and output: evidence with credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinan Liu ◽  
Apostolos Serletis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Credit Cards ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Growth Volatility

Abstract We reexamine the effects of the variability of money growth on output, raised by Mascaro and Meltzer (1983), in the era of the increasing use of alternative payments, such as credit cards. Using a bivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model, we find that the volatility of the credit card-augmented Divisia M4 monetary aggregate has a statistically significant negative impact on output from 2006:7 to 2019:3. However, there is no effect of the traditional Divisia M4 growth volatility on real economic activity. We conclude that the balance sheet targeting monetary policies after the financial crisis in 2007–2009 should pay more attention on the broad credit card-augmented Divisia M4 aggregate to address economic and financial stability.

scholarly journals THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ENSURING THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE RESTAURANT BUSINESS IN THE CRISIS COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liudmyla Batchenko ◽  
◽  
Liliia Honchar ◽  
Andrii Beliak ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Enterprise Policy

The study identifies and systematizes key indicators and criteria for ensuring the financial stability of the restaurant business. The complex and thorough analysis of features of maintenance of financial stability of the enterprises of restaurant business on an example of one of restaurants of a chain of the Japanese kitchen of LLC «Sushiya» is carried out. After analyzing the key indicators of financial and economic activity of the restaurant, using the method of complex calculation of the rating of the financial condition of enterprises in the hospitality industry, the level of financial stability of the studied enterprise is determined. Based on the results of practice-oriented analysis, the ranking of financial management goals by the degree of impact on the financial stability of the enterprise. The mechanism of ensuring financial stability of restaurant business enterprises is modeled. The developed and substantiated mechanism is based on a unique methodology, which, unlike existing ones, is adapted to the field of hospitality, is carried out by specific tactical and strategic tools of financial management, based on the chosen type of enterprise policy; takes into account the dynamics of the main financial indicators of the enterprise, which is planned to implement the mechanism and the possible impact of factors of the external changing business environment. With the help of the matrix of financial strategies of J. Franchon and I. Romane, the position of the restaurant «Sushiya-Lavina» is determined and the methodological tools for improving the efficiency of its financial stability are substantiated.

scholarly journals FRAUD PENTAGON THEORY DALAM FINANCIAL STATEMENT FRAUD PADA PERUSAHAAN TERDAFTAR di JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII) PERIODE 2014-2017 (Perspektif F-Score Model)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-138
Author(s):  
Faiz Rahman Siddiq ◽  
Agus Endrianto Suseno
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Fraud Triangle ◽  
Financial Statement Fraud ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Auditing Standards ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Financial Need

Financial statement fraud biasa disebut dengan kecurangan laporan keuangan yang merupakan kesengajaan dalam melakukan kelalaian dan kesalahan ketika  membuat laporan keuangan dengan penyajian yang tidak sesuai pada prinsip akuntansi berterima umum. Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No.99 menjelaskan tentang salah saji yang berhubungan dengan auditor dalam mengaudit laporan keuangan terhadap fraud diantaranya adalah (1) salah saji dari kesalahan suatu laporan keuangan merupakan suatu  pengungkapan yang direncanakan guna menipu pengguna laporan keuangan, (2) penyalahgunaan aset atau istilah lain pencurian dan penggelapan sering dijadikan sebagai salah saji dalam laporan keuangan. Fraud pentagon theory merupakan pengembangan dari teori fraud sebelumnya yaitu fraud triangle (Cressey, 1953) dan fraud diamond (Wolf and Hermanson,2004). Populasi penelitian ini adalah perusahaan yang tergabung dalam Indeks JII (Jakarta Islamic Index) pada tahun 2014-2017. Teknik pengambilan sampel dengan menggunakan metode purposive sampling. Metode analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis regresi linear berganda. Financial statement fraud dalam penelitian menggunakan perspektif F-Score Model. Hasil penelitian ini adalah pressure (Financial Stability, dan Financial Target), dan Opportunity (Nature of Industry) berpengaruh terhadap financial statement fraud. Sedangkan Pressure (External Pressure dan Personal Financial  Need), Rationalization (Change in Auditor), Competence (Change of Director) dan Arrogance (Frequent Number of CEO’s Picture dan Dualism Position) tidak berpengaruh terhadap financial statemnt fraud.

scholarly journals Insolvency Risk. Application of Altman Z-score to the auto parts sector in Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 37-48
Author(s):  
Rodica Baciu ◽  
Brezeanu Petre ◽  
Adrian Simon
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Insolvency Risk ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Capitalization Rate ◽  
Score Model

This paper intends to apply the Altman Z-score model to all the companies active in the wholesale of motor vehicle parts and accessories (NACE 4531), with extended financial statements. Using the panel data model over the time series for 2008-2016 on the companies of this sector, we conclude that 99% of the Z-score is explained by the independent variables (working capital, capital structure, turnover, earnings before interest and tax), with estimated parameters very close to the models classical values. The sample description of the paper and the corresponding results highlights the Z-score evolution by turnover clusters and principal components, with the largest companies performing the best (the only cluster with Z-score median above 3). We notice a tendency for decreasing high risk companies and increase in the medium risk companies, whereas the low risk companies are relatively stable. This improvement is mostly due to increasing capitalization rate and less external debt, despite the deteriorating working capital and operating margin. We believe that future research to evaluate Z-score sensitivity under stress test scenarios would be very useful to provide an insight of companies’ insolvency risk amid increasing interest rates and different fiscal tax on dividend.

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