Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
The Body ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2018 ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Infrastructure Project

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The Impact of Shariah Governance and Corporate Governance on the Risk Management Practices: Evidence from Local and Foreign Islamic Banks in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Sabri Embi ◽  
Zurina Shafii
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
T Test ◽  
The Body ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Shariah Governance ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of Shariah governance and corporate governance (CG) on the risk management practices (RMPs) of local Islamic banks and foreign Islamic banks operating in Malaysia. The Shariah governance comprises the Shariah review (SR) and Shariah audit (SA) variables. The study also evaluates the level of RMPs, CG, SR, and SA between these two type of banks. With the aid of SPSS version 20, the items for RMPs, CG, SR, and SA were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA). From the PCA, one component or factor was extracted each for the CG, SR, and RMPs while another two factors were extracted for the SA. Primary data was collected using a self-administered survey questionnaire. The questionnaire covers four aspects ; CG, SR, SA, and RMPs. The data received from the 300 usable questionnaires were subjected to correlation and regression analyses as well as an independent t-test. The result of correlation analysis shows that all the four variables have large positive correlations with each other indicating a strong and significant relationship between them. From the regression analysis undertaken, CG, SR, and SA together explained 52.3 percent of the RMPs and CG emerged as the most influential variable that impacts the RMPs. The independent t-test carried out shows that there were significant differences in the CG and SA between the local and foreign Islamic banks. However, there were no significant differences between the two types of the bank in relation to SR and RMPs. The study has contributed to the body of knowledge and is beneficial to academicians, industry players, regulators, and other stakeholders.

scholarly journals The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Liechti ◽  
E. Ruettener ◽  
S. Eugster ◽  
R. Streit
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Average Annual Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Level

In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation) is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL)) to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

General Approach to Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Davorin Matanovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Impact

Broadly accepted methodology that is implemented in the oil industry when dealing with risks includes as the first step the identification of possible hazards. That is done by gathering information about degree of risk according to working procedures, processes, and individuals involved in the operation of the process. That is the first step in risk management, an iterative process that must lead to the use of proper measurements in the way of protecting people, facilities and environment. The analysis is done based on the combination of probability and severity of undesirable events, and the final consequences. Explanation of basic terms, their interdependence, dilemmas, and methods of risk analysis are introduced. Each method is shortly described with main anteriority and shortcomings. Differences between quantitative methods, qualitative methods, and hybrid methods (the combination of qualitative-quantitative or semi-quantitative methods) are elaborated. The impact, occurrence, and the consequences are at the end compared to risk acceptance criteria concept. The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) framework is explained with some observation on the quality and acceptance in petroleum industry. Finally, the human impact on the risk and consequences is analyzed.

General Approach to Risk Analysis

2015 ◽  
pp. 1217-1236
Author(s):  
Davorin Matanovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Impact

Broadly accepted methodology that is implemented in the oil industry when dealing with risks includes as the first step the identification of possible hazards. That is done by gathering information about degree of risk according to working procedures, processes, and individuals involved in the operation of the process. That is the first step in risk management, an iterative process that must lead to the use of proper measurements in the way of protecting people, facilities and environment. The analysis is done based on the combination of probability and severity of undesirable events, and the final consequences. Explanation of basic terms, their interdependence, dilemmas, and methods of risk analysis are introduced. Each method is shortly described with main anteriority and shortcomings. Differences between quantitative methods, qualitative methods, and hybrid methods (the combination of qualitative-quantitative or semi-quantitative methods) are elaborated. The impact, occurrence, and the consequences are at the end compared to risk acceptance criteria concept. The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) framework is explained with some observation on the quality and acceptance in petroleum industry. Finally, the human impact on the risk and consequences is analyzed.

A stakeholder-based risk assessment and intervention framework for international construction projects

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Shangde Gao ◽  
Pinchao Liao ◽  
Tsenguun Ganbat ◽  
Junhua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
The Body ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Construction ◽  
Project Objectives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to construct a two-stage risk management framework for international construction projects based on the meta-network analysis (MNA) approach. A plethora of international construction studies seems to assume risks as independent and therefore, risk intervention strategies are usually critiqued as ineffective. Design/methodology/approach In the risk assessment stage, a multi-tiered risk network structure was developed with the project objectives, risk events, risk factors and stakeholders, and critical risk factors were selected based on a series of calculations. In the risk intervention stage, targeted risk intervention strategies were proposed for stakeholders based on the results of the first stage. A highway construction project in Eastern Europe was selected as a case study. Findings The results showed that 17 risk factors in three categories – external, stakeholder-related and internal – are critical, and the project manager, construction management department, supplier and contract department are the most critical stakeholders that affect the entire project performance. Based on the critical risk factors and project stakeholders, targeted risk intervention strategies were proposed. The risk assessment results of MNA were found to be more reliable and consistent with the project conditions than the risk matrix method; the risk intervention strategies of MNA can effectively address project objectives. Originality/value This study modeled risk priorities based on risk associations and put forward a new method for risk management, supplementing the body of knowledge of international construction. The results of this study are of critical importance in management practices.

scholarly journals An Assessment of the Impact of Credit Risk Management and Performance on Loan Portfolio at International Bank Liberia

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Alvin Boye Dolo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Body ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
International Bank ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

This research entitled “An Assessment of the impact of credit risk management and performance on loan portfolio at International Bank Liberia Limited from 2015-2017 contributed to the body of knowledge to the beneficiaries. It findings are also important for the Central Bank to use in monitoring credit scoring and history across all commercial bank with in the country. This study was quantitative in nature, and involves mathematical modelling in order to determine the effect of changes in interest rates on profit and net worth of the sampled banks. This study uses panel data and assumes that the effect of interest rate changes vary across the observations and over time, therefore the use of stochastic econometric (panel regression analysis) process is appropriate. The population of the study will consist of 150 credit staffs and other staffs of IBLL. The study adopt a census study and collect data for two years from 1st January, 2015 to 31st December, 2017 and the researcher used sample out 85 respondents representing 57% as the sample size from the population of 150 persons from the study area. The findings reveals that it was established from the study that 25% of the respondents who were picked from the institution agreed that credit score is one of the major system used by the bank in determining loan and 32% selected credit history. It was also observed that that bank operate within a defined credit granting criteria. The findings also show that IBLL established a system of independent, ongoing assessment of the bank‟s credit risk management. It was proven that 48% of the respondents agree while 41% strongly agree. It was established that IBLL have a loan risk management policy in place. This policy is very crucial in providing guidelines on how to manage the various risks the bank encounter in their lending activities. Members of the bank and regulators are those responsible for the formulation of the credit policy with less input from employees.

scholarly journals ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF POPULATION HEALTH RISKS MANAGEMENT IN RUSSIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (6) ◽  
pp. 572-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. N. Rakitskiy ◽  
Simon L. Avaliani ◽  
T. A. Shashina ◽  
N. S. Dodina
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Management Activity ◽  
Impact Reduction ◽  
The Government ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
The Impact

In the article there are defined the main tasks of risk analysis and its main component - risk management, which make it possible to develop economically efficient measures, aimed at the impact reduction of environmental harmful factors for public health based on the analysis of market driven approaches «cost-benefit» and «cost-effectiveness». As well there are emphasized significant fundamental changes in the area of the legislative support of management activity, focused on sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population. The implementation of risk-focused approach to the practice of means of control and supervision to the government of Russian Federation is an integral part of control reformation system of different nature. The key problems of public health risk management in Russia are defined and the main ways of their solution are discussed. Thus, the development of reliable and scientifically based classifications of hazard level for objects requires clear criteria for supervision of assessing objects. Classes of business entities should reflect the leading risk factors, which discovered in the controlled areas. In the justification of risk from the probability (frequency) of violations of the mandatory requirements of sanitary legislation required the inventory of all consequences of the breach of sanitary legislation for each object of supervision and their ranking according to the degree of hazard. It is pointed out, that the movement towards to the technological regulation of air pollution emissions, including indicators of the Maximum Achievable Control Technology or (MACT) is a progressive management method, which requires an analysis with the use of MACT from the perspective of achieving acceptable risk levels, as well as an assessment of the effectiveness of alternative measures to reduce emissions, including MACT. It was noted, that on the basis of comparative risk analysis, it is possible to assess not only the risk to human health, but also the environmental risk to the ecosystem and its components, as well as the risk associated with the violation of the quality and living conditions. It is seen the interaction of concerned parties in the development of solutions management of health risks from environmental factors.

scholarly journals RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF PROCUREMENT ACTIVITIES IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOOK PRINTING PROJECT USING HOUSE OF RISK METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-229
Author(s):  
Ananda Vania Arisa Putri ◽  
Rheza Aulia Ramadhan ◽  
Bambang Purwanggono Sukarsono
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Elementary School ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Effort ◽  
School Books ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Analysis And Management

Risk management is a management effort to control the company's risk operations by conducting risk analysis, risk evaluation and mitigation plan. Risk management efforts are feasible to be applied to the company's business activities including procurement activities. PT XYZ is one of the printing companies whose main demand is the printing of Elementary School Books. There is a decrease in demand that results in disruption to the company's cash flow so that a tight money policy is applied to every company's activity including procurement activities. This policy increases the risk that may occur, so risk management efforts are needed to minimize the impact that can occur. The House of Risk method is used to identify risk events and risk agents that cause them, and design mitigation measures to address those risk agents. The results showed that there were 10 risk events and 10 identified risk agents, with priority risk agents to be handled are A1 (volume and type of raw materials are incorrect) and A3 (communication interruption). There are 5 recommended mitigation measures.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document