Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecast Based on Dynamic Selective Neural Network Ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 568-570 ◽  
pp. 868-873
Author(s):  
Yan Hua Liu ◽  
Ze Dong
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Neural Network Ensemble ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Neural Networks ◽  
Generalization Errors

With the scale of grid-connected wind farms increasing, accurate forecast of ultra-short-term wind speed and wind power is very important to the stable operation of power systems. This paper presents a dynamic selective neural network ensemble (DSNNE) forecast method, which makes use of K nearest neighbor algorithm to collect the generalization errors of certain different BP neural networks and RBF neural networks into a performance matrix and then the neural networks with low local generalization errors are dynamically selected and locally dynamic averaging is applied to the neural networks in order to conduct the final results of the ensemble. Then this method is applied to realize the wind speed and power ultra-short-term advance forecast, taking the wind speed and wind turbine power output from a wind farm in China as the original data. The research results show that DSNNE improves the generalization ability of the neural network system and the prediction accuracy of wind power and wind speed significantly. It proves the validity and effectiveness of the DSNNE with controlling the biggest mean relative error of 2 minutes ahead wind power and wind speed forecast as low as 25% and 16% respectively.

Wind Power Short-Term Forcasting of BP Neural Network Based on the Small-World Optimization

2014 ◽  
Vol 933 ◽  
pp. 384-389
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Shuang Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Small World ◽  
Power Method ◽  
Short Term

Wind power short-term forcasting of BP neural network based on the small-world optimization is proposed. First, the initial data collected from wind farm are revised, and the unreasonable data are found out and revised. Second, the small-world optimization BP neural network model is proposed, and the model is used on the prediction method of wind speed and wind direction, and the prediction method of power. Finally, by simulation analysis, the NMAE and NRMSE of the power method are smaller than those of the wind speed and wind direction method when the wind power data of one hour later are predicted. When the power method are used to forecast the data one hour later, NMAE is 5.39% and NRMSE is 6.98%.

scholarly journals Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongxian Men ◽  
Eugene Yee ◽  
Fue-Sang Lien ◽  
Zhiling Yang ◽  
Yongqian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Power Forecasting

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Wind Power Wind

2015 ◽  
Vol 713-715 ◽  
pp. 1444-1447
Author(s):  
De Yin Du ◽  
Bao Fan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Turbine Output

The amount of random variation of wind speed, wind turbine output power are volatile, a lot of wind power will be on the safe and stable operation of power systems and power quality pose serious challenges, so the wind farm wind speed and power generation forecast scheduling and management of wind farms play an important role. According wind with chaotic discuss the use of phase space CC method to reconstruct the chaotic time series, and the phase space of a wind farm 10 units were reconstructed using the weighted first order local prediction model to obtain short-term within 1h wind forecast values obtained using the power curve conversion method of generating power for each unit. By examples show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

scholarly journals Ultra-Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power Based on Fuzzy Clustering and RBF Neural Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Huang Hui ◽  
Jia Rong ◽  
Wang Songkai
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Rbf Neural Network ◽  
Effective Capacity ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Operation Conditions

High-precision wind power forecast can reduce the volatility and intermittency of wind power output, which is conducive to the stable operation of the power system and improves the system's effective capacity for large-scale wind power consumption. In the wind farm, the wind turbines are located in different space locations, and its output characteristics are also affected by wind direction, wake effect, and operation conditions. Based on this, two-step ultra-short-term forecast model was proposed. Firstly, fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) theory was used to cluster the units according to the out characteristics of wind turbines. Secondly, a prediction model of RBF neural network is established for the classification clusters, respectively, and the ultra-short-term power forecast is performed for each unit. Finally, the above results are compared with the RBF single prediction model established by unclassified g wind turbines. A case study of a wind farm in northern China is carried out. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of wind power and prove the effectiveness of the method.

scholarly journals Optimization of Feedforward Neural Networks Using an Improved Flower Pollination Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 4126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yidi Ren ◽  
Hua Li ◽  
Hsiung-Cheng Lin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Flower Pollination Algorithm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Flower Pollination ◽  
Speed Prediction

It is well known that the inherent instability of wind speed may jeopardize the safety and operation of wind power generation, consequently affecting the power dispatch efficiency in power systems. Therefore, accurate short-term wind speed prediction can provide valuable information to solve the wind power grid connection problem. For this reason, the optimization of feedforward (FF) neural networks using an improved flower pollination algorithm is proposed. First of all, the empirical mode decomposition method is devoted to decompose the wind speed sequence into components of different frequencies for decreasing the volatility of the wind speed sequence. Secondly, a back propagation neural network is integrated with the improved flower pollination algorithm to predict the changing trend of each decomposed component. Finally, the predicted values of each component can get into an overlay combination process and achieve the purpose of accurate prediction of wind speed. Compared with major existing neural network models, the performance tests confirm that the average absolute error using the proposed algorithm can be reduced up to 3.67%.

scholarly journals Forecasting Models for Wind Power Using Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Xiaolei Xu ◽  
Xuejing Huo ◽  
Yushuo Li
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Frequency Component ◽  
High Frequency Component ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The randomness and volatility of wind power poses a serious threat to the stability, continuity, and adjustability of the power system when it is connected to the grid. Accurate short-term wind power prediction methods have important practical value for achieving high-precision prediction of wind farm power generation and safety and economic dispatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel combined model to improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, which involves grey correlation degree analysis, ESMD (extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition), sample entropy (SampEn) theory, and a hybrid prediction model based on three prediction algorithms. The meteorological data at different times and altitudes is firstly selected as the influencing factors of wind power. Then, the wind power sub-series obtained by the ESMD method is reconstructed into three wind power characteristic components, namely PHC (high frequency component of wind power), PMC (medium frequency component of wind power), and PLC (low frequency component of wind power). Similarly, the wind speed sub-series obtained by the ESMD method is reconstructed into three wind speed characteristic components, called SHC (high frequency component of wind speed), SMC (medium frequency component of wind speed), and SLC (low frequency component of wind speed). Subsequently, the Bat-BP model, Adaboost-ENN model, and ENN (Elman neural network), which have high forecasting accuracy, are selected to predict PHC, PMC, and PLC, respectively. Finally, the prediction results of three characteristic components are aggregated into the final prediction values of the original wind power series. To evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed combined model, 15-min wind power and meteorological data from the wind farm in China are adopted as case studies. The prediction results show that the combined model shows better performance in short-term wind power prediction compared with other models.

The Application of Wind Speed Numerical Simulation in Wind Power Generation

2013 ◽  
Vol 380-384 ◽  
pp. 3370-3373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Yang Liu ◽  
Jun Ji Wu ◽  
Shao Liang Meng
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Wind Gust ◽  
Gradual Change ◽  
Wake Effect

With the massive development and application of wind energy, wind power is having an increasing proportion in power grid. The changes of the wind speed in a wind farm will lead to fluctuations in the power output which would affect the stable operation of the power grid. Therefore the research of the characteristics of wind speed has become a hot topic in the field of wind energy. In the paper, the wind speed at the wind farm was simulated in a combination of wind speeds by which wind speed was decomposed of four components including basic wind, gust wind, stochastic wind and gradient wind which denote the regularity, the mutability, the gradual change and the randomness of a natural wind respectively. The model is able to reflect the characteristics of a real wind, easy for engineering simulation and can also estimate the wind energy of a wind farm through the wind speed and wake effect model. This paper has directive significance in the estimation of wind resource and the layout of wind turbines in wind farms.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using GA-BP Neural Network Based on DBSCAN Algorithm Outlier Identification

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Zhang ◽  
Yanling Wang ◽  
Likai Liang ◽  
Xing Li ◽  
Qingtian Duan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Outlier Identification ◽  
Dbscan Algorithm ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Accurately predicting wind power plays a vital part in site selection, large-scale grid connection, and the safe and efficient operation of wind power generation equipment. In the stage of data pre-processing, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm is used to identify the outliers in the wind power data and the collected wind speed data of a wind power plant in Shandong Province, and the linear regression method is used to correct the outliers to improve the prediction accuracy. Considering the important impact of wind speed on power, the average value, the maximum difference and the average change rate of daily wind speed of each historical day are used as the selection criteria to select similar days by using DBSCAN algorithm and Euclidean distance. The short-term wind power prediction is carried out by using the similar day data pre-processed and unprocessed, respectively, as the input of back propagation neural network optimized by genetic algorithm (GA-BP neural network). Analysis of the results proves the practicability and efficiency of the prediction model and the important role of outlier identification and correction in improving the accuracy of wind power prediction.

scholarly journals A Comparative Study of Activation Functions of NAR and NARX Neural Network for Long-Term Wind Speed Forecasting in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasel Sarkar ◽  
Sabariah Julai ◽  
Sazzad Hossain ◽  
Wen Tong Chong ◽  
Mahmudur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Power Generation ◽  
Activation Functions ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Narx Neural Network

Since wind power is directly influenced by wind speed, long-term wind speed forecasting (WSF) plays an important role for wind farm installation. WSF is essential for controlling, energy management and scheduled wind power generation in wind farm. The proposed investigation in this paper provides 30-days-ahead WSF. Nonlinear Autoregressive (NAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network (NN) with different network settings have been used to facilitate the wind power generation. The essence of this study is that it compares the effect of activation functions (namely, tansig and logsig) in the performance of time series forecasting since activation function is the core element of any artificial neural network model. A set of wind speed data was collected from different meteorological stations in Malaysia, situated in Kuala Lumpur, Kuantan, and Melaka. The proposed activation functions tansig of NARNN and NARXNN resulted in promising outcomes in terms of very small error between actual and predicted wind speed as well as the comparison for the logsig transfer function results.

The Forecasting of Short-Term Wind Speed on Wind Farm Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Neural Network

2012 ◽  
Vol 246-247 ◽  
pp. 496-500
Author(s):  
Ying Ying Su ◽  
Fei Ma ◽  
Hai Yan Zhang ◽  
Zhi Qiang Liao ◽  
Peng Jun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
The Mean

The forecasting precision of short-term wind speed is not high for its chaos and time-varying. Aimed at the problem, the novel data space is reconstructed with the best embedding dimension and time delay according to the phase space reconstruction. On the basis, neural network (NN) is used as the modeling tool with the novel sample data. Meanwhile, the structure of NN is confirmed compared with the others on the precision. In the end, the model of short-term wind speed is able to be obtained. The results show that the method is available and the Mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased to 16.2% for 2 hours.

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