Framework of Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Electric Cyber-Physical System

2015 ◽  
Vol 1092-1093 ◽  
pp. 262-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Xu Lu ◽  
Yan Li Liu ◽  
Kai Hou ◽  
Chao Qin ◽  
Yuan Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information System ◽  
Physical System ◽  
System Development ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Cyber Physical System ◽  
Software Framework ◽  
Fault Probability

A framework of comprehensive risk assessment for Electric Cyber-Physical System (ECPS) is proposed in this paper. Risk factors of information system and their impact on the gird are analyzed and the method of obtaining the fault probability considering risk factors from information system is discussed. A comprehensive risk assessment model is presented and related software is developed. Research work in this paper provides a theoretical basis and software framework support to the following system development.

Analytical model for assessing collapse risk during mountain tunnel construction

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 326-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Hua Zhang ◽  
Yu-Yong Jiao ◽  
Li-Biao Chen ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Shu-Cai Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Geological Prediction ◽  
Tunnel Collapse ◽  
Mountain Tunnel

Risk management for safety in mountain tunnel construction is of great significance. However, existing research lags behind engineering applications. In this paper, the risk of mountain tunnel collapse is used as an example to illustrate a new assessment method based on case-based reasoning, advanced geological prediction, and rough set theory. First, the risk surroundings and risk factors involved in tunnel collapse are integrated and summarized, and a risk assessment index system is established for tunnel collapse. At the same time, because the dynamic response parameters obtained by the advanced geological prediction usually indicate a typical geological structure, sensitive response parameters are introduced in the assessment index system. Advanced risk assessment can be performed for tunnel sections at a certain distance ahead of the tunnel face. Second, the major risk surroundings and the advanced geological prediction results are analyzed for the tunnel under assessment. Cases with similar attribute characteristics are selected via comparison with previous cases. Attribute reduction and calculation of weights are subsequently performed for the risk surroundings and risk factors of similar cases based on the attribute significance theory of rough sets. Finally, index screening and objective weights are applied in the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. The results of this paper can be used to improve the theoretical level and reliability of risk assessment in tunnel safety and serve as a reference for tunnel construction.

Research on Risk Assessment Method and System Development of Small Ammonia Refrigeration Units

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Weihua Wang ◽  
Weike Jing ◽  
Jin Shi ◽  
Fakun Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
System Development ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Abstract In recent years, ammonia leakage accidents occur frequently, which causes a great concern in China. Based on traditional risk analysis methods and the equipment characteristics, a risk evaluation method for small ammonia refrigeration units is proposed. The method includes a risk assessment model based on area division, a failure probability assessment method based on expert scoring system, a failure consequence assessment method based on regional population density and consequence mitigation measures, and a HAZOP risk correction method. Based on the proposed method, a risk assessment system of small ammonia refrigeration units is developed. This risk assessment method and system will provide a scientific basis to carry out the cold storage management in China.

scholarly journals Determination of Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism by an Adapted Caprini Scoring System in Surgical Patients

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bui My Hanh ◽  
Le Quang Cuong ◽  
Nguyen Truong Son ◽  
Duong Tuan Duc ◽  
Tran Tien Hung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Scoring

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a frequent preventable complication among surgical patients. Precise risk assessment is a necessary step for providing appropriate thromboprophylaxis and reducing mortality as well as morbidity caused by VTE. We carried out this work to define the rate of VTE postoperatively, following a Caprini score, and to determine VTE risk factors through a modified Caprini risk scoring system. This multicenter, observational, cohort study involved 2,790,027 patients who underwent surgery in four Vietnamese hospitals from 01/2017 to 12/2018. All patients who were evaluated before surgery by using a Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) and monitored within 90 days after surgery. The endpoint of the study was ultrasound-confirmed VTE. Our data showed that the 90-day postoperative VTE was found in 3068 patients. Most of VTE (46.97%) cases were found in the highest risk group (Caprini score > 5). A total of 37.19% were observed in the high risk group, while the rest (15.84%) were from low to moderate risk groups. The likelihood of occurring VTE was heightened 2.83 times for patients with a Caprini score of 3–4, 4.83 times for a Caprini score of 5–6, 8.84 times for a score of 7–8, and 11.42 times for a score of >8, comparing to ones with a score of 0 to 2 (all p values < 0.05). Thus, the frequency of postoperative VTE rises substantially, according to the advanced Caprini score. Further categorizing patients among the highest risk group need delivering more appropriate thromboprophylaxis.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for VTE In Hospitalized Medical and Surgical Patients. Data From the Comparison of Methods for Thromboembolic Risk Assessment with Clinical Perceptions and AwareneSS In Real Life Surgical and Medical Patients (COMPASS) Study

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 3337-3337
Author(s):  
Grigoris T Gerotziafas ◽  
Miltos Chrysanthidis ◽  
Reda Isaad ◽  
Hela Baccouche ◽  
Chrysoula Papageorgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gastrointestinal Disease ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Medical Patients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Abstract 3337 Introduction: Risk assessment models (RAM) are helpful tools for the screening VTE risk in hospitalized patients. Most of the available RAMs have been constructed on a disease-based or surgery-based approach and include some of the most relevant risk factors for VTE. There is limited information on the impact and importance of individual and comorbidity related risk factors for VTE present during hospitalization on the global VTE risk. Incorporation of the most frequent VTE risk and bleeding risk factors related to comorbidities might improve the ability of RAM to detect real-life patients at risk VTE and to evaluate drawbacks for the application of thromboprophylaxis. Aim of the study: The primary aim of the COMPASS programme was to evaluate the prevalence of the all known VTE and bleeding risk factors reported in the literature in real-life surgical and medical hospitalized patients. Methods: A prospective multicenter cross-sectional observational study was conducted in 6 hospitals in Greece and 1 in France. All inpatients aged >40 years hospitalised for medical diseases and inpatients aged >18 years admitted due to a surgical procedure and hospitalisation for a period exceeding three days were included. Patients and their treating physicians were interviewed with standardised questionnaire including all VTE and bleeding risk factors described in literature (130 items) on the third day of hospitalisation. Patients not giving informed consent, or receiving anticoagulant treatment for any reason or hospitalised in order to undergo diagnostic investigation without any further therapeutic intervention were excluded. Results: A total of 806 patients were enrolled in the study (414 medical and 392 surgical). Most frequent causes of hospitalisation in medical patients were infection (42%), ischemic stroke (14%), cancer (13%), gastrointestinal disease (9%), pulmonary disease (4%), renal disease (3%) and rheumatologic disease (1,4%). Surgical patients were hospitalised for vascular disease (22%) cancer (19,4%) gastrointestinal disease (12,5%), infection (8%), orthopaedic surgery and trauma (14%) or minor surgery (7%). Analysis of the frequency of risk factors for VTE showed that active cancer, recent hospitalisation, venous insufficiency and total bed rest without bathroom privileges were frequent in both groups. Medical patients had significantly more frequently than surgical patients several important predisposing risk factors for VTE. Moreover, medical patient had more frequently than surgical ones bleeding risk factors. The data for the most frequent risk factors are summarised in Table 1. Conclusion: COMPASS is the first registry that provides key data on the prevalence of all known VTE and bleeding risk factors in real life medical and surgical patients hospitalised in two countries of European Union. The analysis of the data shows that in addition to risk stemin from the disease or surgical act both medical and surgical patients share common VTE risk factors. The careful analysis of the most frequent and relevant VTE risk factors will allow the derivation of a practical VTE and bleeding risk assessment model taken into account these factors. Disclosures: Chrysanthidis: Sanofi-Aventis: Employment.

Preliminary analysis and assessment of breast cancer risk in Japanese women.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e13092-e13092
Author(s):  
Michiyo Yamada ◽  
Takashi Ishikawa ◽  
Sadatoshi Sugae ◽  
Kazutaka Narui ◽  
Eiji Arita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Family History ◽  
Breast Cancer Risk ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Japanese Women ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Brinkman Index

e13092 Background: No comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment model for Japanese women exists. Consequently, we have collected Japanese women’s data to investigate key BC risk factors with an objective of deriving a Japanese-women specific BC risk assessment model. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study (paper-based with postal survey) at 15 institutions during 2014-2015. A survey was distributed to Japanese females aged 20-80 who had BC check-up. All pertinent data of a total of 34 factors including demographic and reproductive factors, social history and eating habits was collected. Cases and controls were divided into three groups respectively, premenopausal (PRE; 20 ≤ age < 45), perimenopausal (PERI; 45 ≤ age ≤ 55) and postmenopausal group (POST; 55 < age ≤ 80). Cases and control variables were compared by t-test, chi-square test and Wilcoxon rank sum test. Preliminary BC risk was calculated by logistic regression analysis. Results: A total of 3975 female Japanese datasets were collected, of which 2494 were complete (all variables present) with 1401 controls and 1093 cases were used. There were 222 cases and 332 controls for PRE, 404 cases and 537 controls for PERI, and 467 and 532 controls for POST. The univariate analysis demonstrated that BMI was significantly higher in cases than in controls in all groups (P < 0.01) as was “number of deliveries” in PRE and POST (P < 0.001) and Brinkman index in PRE and PERI (p = 0.017). Multivariate analysis revealed that BC risk was positively associated with BMI (OR 1.080, 95% CI 1.017–1.148, p = 0.012) in PRE, BMI (OR 1.121, 95% CI 1.072–1.174, p < 0.01) and brinkman index (OR 1.000005, 95% CI 1.000002–1.000008, p < 0.01) in PERI, age (OR 1.054, 95% CI 1.028–1.081, p < 0.010), BMI (OR 1.153, 95% CI 1.076-1.171, p < 0.01) and family history (OR 1.497, 95% CI 1.103–2.033, p = 0.001) in POST, while negatively associated with regular exercise (OR 0.672, 95% CI 0.517–0.873, p = 0.003) in POST. Conclusions: BMI in all groups, in addition, the Brinkman index in PERI and age and family history in POST are BC risk factors. Exercise is a protective risk factor in POST. However, the preliminary results are incomplete and further analysis will be conducted before a full risk assessment model is proposed for Japanese women.

Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for guaranteed maximum price and target cost contracts in South Australia

Facilities ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 624-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel W.M. Chan ◽  
Joseph H.L. Chan ◽  
Tony Ma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Target Cost ◽  
Fuzzy Risk Assessment

Purpose – This paper aims to develop a fuzzy risk assessment model for construction projects procured with target cost contracts and guaranteed maximum price contracts (TCC/GMP) using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, based on an empirical questionnaire survey with relevant industrial practitioners in South Australia. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 34 major risk factors inherent with TCC/GMP contracts were identified through an extensive literature review and a series of structured interviews. A questionnaire survey was then launched to solicit the opinions of industrial practitioners on risk assessment of such risk factors. Findings – The most important 14 key risk factors after the computation of normalised values were selected for undertaking fuzzy evaluation analysis. Five key risk groups (KRGs) were then generated in descending order of importance as: physical risks, lack of experience of contracting parties throughout TCC/GMP procurement process, design risks, contractual risks and delayed payment on contracts. These survey findings also revealed that physical risks may be the major hurdle to the success of TCC/GMP projects in South Australia. Practical implications – Although the fuzzy risk assessment model was developed for those new-build construction projects procured by TCC/GMP contracts in this paper, the same research methodology may be applied to other contracts within the wide spectrum of facilities management or building maintenance services under the target cost-based model. Therefore, the contribution from this paper could be extended to the discipline of facilities management as well. Originality/value – An overall risk index associated with TCC/GMP construction projects and the risk indices of individual KRGs can be generated from the model for reference. An objective and a holistic assessment can be achieved. The model has provided a solid platform to measure, evaluate and reduce the risk levels of TCC/GMP projects based on objective evidence instead of subjective judgements. The research methodology could be replicated in other countries or regions to produce similar models for international comparisons, and the assessment of risk levels for different types of TCC/GMP projects (including new-build or maintenance) worldwide.

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