The Impact of Risk Factors Reduction Scenarios on Hospital Admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and the Hospitalisation Cost of Cardiovascular Disease in Thailand

Introduction: While cardio-protective effects of fruits and vegetables are well-established, the impact of their suboptimal intake on the CVD burden across nations and levels of development has not been evaluated. Objective: To systematically quantify the burden of CVD attributable to low intake of fruits and low intake of vegetables in 195 countries by age, sex, country, and development status in 2015. Methods: We obtained data on consumption of fruits and vegetables from nationally or subnationally representative nutrition surveys and data on their national availability from the UN FAO. Etiologic effect sizes of fruits and vegetables on CVD endpoints were obtained from meta- analyses of prospective cohort studies. The optimal level of intakes for each was determined based on the levels associated with lowest risk of mortality in prospective observational studies. A comparative risk assessment analysis was conducted to quantify the proportion of disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low intake of each. The variation of this burden was further evaluated across different levels of our newly developed socio-demographic index (SDI). Results: In 2015, low intake of fruits accounted for 57.3 (95% UI: 37.1- 78.4) million DALYs due to CVD globally (41.5% from IHD and 58.5% from stroke). Low intake of vegetable caused 44.6 (23.6- 68.8) million CVD DALYs (67.3% IHD and 32.7% stroke). The highest burden of CVD attributable to low intake of fruits and vegetables was seen in the middle and low-middle SDI quintiles (17.2 and 14.3% of total DALYs), while the lowest burden for each was seen in high and high-middle SDI quintiles (12.7 and 11.2%). At the country level, the attributable CVD burden ranged from 5.1% of total DALYs (Rwanda) to 23.2% (Bangladesh) for low intake of fruit and from 5.9% (North Korea) to 19.4% (Mongolia) for low intake of vegetable. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that population inventions to increase consumption of fruits and vegetables at population level could save millions of life years globally. Figure. Age-standardized proportion of disability-adjusted life years attributable to low intake of fruits (A) and vegetables (B) from cardiovascular disease among adults (> 25y) in 2015.

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Trends in cardiovascular diseases burden and vascular risk factors in Italy: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990–2017

European Journal of Preventive Cardiology ◽

10.1177/2047487320949414 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 204748732094941

Author(s):

Paolo A Cortesi ◽

Carla Fornari ◽

Fabiana Madotto ◽

Sara Conti ◽

Mohsen Naghavi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Cardiovascular Diseases ◽

Disease Burden ◽

European Countries ◽

Vascular Risk ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Disease Study

Aims An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries. Methods All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries. Results Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (–12.7%), mortality rate (–53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (–55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function. Conclusions Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.

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Assessing the Impact of Salt Reduction Initiatives on the Chronic Disease Burden of Singapore

Nutrients ◽

10.3390/nu13041171 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 1171

Author(s):

Ken Wei Tan ◽

Sharon Esi Duoduwa Quaye ◽

Joel Ruihan Koo ◽

Jue Tao Lim ◽

Alex R. Cook ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Chronic Disease ◽

Entire Population ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Salt Reduction ◽

Salt Consumption ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Incident Cases ◽

The Impact

Globally, many countries are facing an increasing burden of chronic disease due to ageing populations, of which cardiovascular disease forms a large proportion. Excess dietary sodium contributes to cardiovascular disease risk and requires intervention at a population level. This study aimed to quantify the impact of several salt reduction initiatives on population health over a 30-year horizon using GeoDEMOS, a population model from Singapore. Four interventions were modelled in four demographic groups in 2020 for a total of 16 intervention scenarios. The effect of 0.5, 2.0, and 4.0 g/day reductions in daily salt consumption, along with adherence to the World Health Organization guidelines of a maximum of 5.0 g of salt each day, was modelled in the entire population, including the overweight and obese, the elderly, and diabetics. In each scenario, the number of averted incident cases of acute myocardial infarction and stroke, along with the disability-adjusted life years up to 2050, was monitored. We found 4.0 g/day reductions in salt consumption were the most effective when implemented across the entire population, resulting in 24,000 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 215,000 disability-adjusted life years over 30 years. This is a large figure when compared with the 29,200 projected annual incident cases of cardiovascular disease in 2050. When targeted at specific high-risk demographic groups, the largest effects were observed in the overweight and obese, with the same intervention yielding 10,500 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 91,500 disability-adjusted life years. Quantifying the benefits of salt reduction initiatives revealed a significant impact when administered across the entire population or the overweight and obese. Health promotion efforts directed toward sustainably reducing salt consumption will help to lower the chronic disease burden on the healthcare system in years to come.

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The Impact of Risk Factors Reduction Scenarios on Hospital Admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and the Hospitalisation Cost of Cardiovascular Disease in Thailand

10.20944/preprints202001.0162.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Khaled Khatab ◽

Rungkren Inthavong ◽

Malcolm Whitfield ◽

Karen Collins ◽

Mubarak Ismail ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Health Care ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Cvd Risk ◽

Worst Case ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Care Costs

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered to be one of the leading health issues in Thailand. CVD not only contributes to an increase in the number of hospital admissions year on year but also impacts on the rising health care expenditure for the treatment and long-term care of CVD patients. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining the impacts of risk reduction strategies on the number of CVD hospital admissions, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and the costs of hospitalisation. To estimate such impacts a CVD cost-offset model wasapplied using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The number of the mid-year population was classified by age, gender and the CVD risk factor profiles from the recent Thai National Health Examination Survey (NHES) IV. This survey was chosen as the baseline population. The CVD risk factor profiles included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking status. The Asia-Pacific Collaborative Cohort Study (APCCS) equation was applied to predict the probability of developing CVD over the next eight-year period. Estimates on the following were obtained from the model: (1.) the CVD events both fatal and non-fatal; (2.) the difference between the projected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths in that population; (3.) the number of patients who are expected to live with CVD; (4.) the DALYs from the estimated number of fatal and non-fatal events; (5.) the cost of hospital admissions. Four CVD risk strategy scenarios were investigated as follows: (1.) the do nothing scenario; (2.) the optimistic scenario; (3.) achieve the UN millennium development goal; and (4.) the worst-case scenario. The findings showed that over the next eight years there are likely to be 3,297,428 recorded cases of CVD; 5,870,049 cases of DALYs; and, approximately ฿57,000 million, ($1.9 billion), is projected as the total cost of hospital admissions. However, if the current health policy can reduce the levels of risk factors as defined in the optimistic scenario or such policy meets the specifications of the UN millennium development goal,there would be a significant reduction in the number of hospital admissions. These are estimated to be a reduction of 522,179 male and 515,416 female cases. With these results it is expected that health care costs would save approximately ฿9,000 million, ($298.3 million), for CVD and 900,000 million of DALYs over the next eight years. However, if there is an upward trend in the risk factors as predicted in the worst-case scenario, then there will be an increase of 428,220 CVD cases; consequently, DALYs cases may rise by 766,029 while the hospitalisation costs may increase by approximately ฿7,000 million, ($232.1 million). Based on our findings, reducing the levels of CVD risk factors in the population will drastically reduce: (1.) the number of CVD cases; (2.) DALYs cases; and (3.) health care costs. Therefore it is recommended that the health policy should enhance the primary prevention programs which would be targeted at reducing the CVD risk factors in the population.

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Global, Regional, and National Death, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) for Cardiovascular Disease in 2017 and Trends and Risk Analysis From 1990 to 2017 Using the Global Burden of Disease Study and Implications for Prevention

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.559751 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Zhiyong Li ◽

Longfei Lin ◽

Hongwei Wu ◽

Lei Yan ◽

Huanhuan Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Heart Disease ◽

Global Burden ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The World ◽

Disease Study ◽

Cvd Mortality

Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide and a major barrier to sustainable human development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the global, sex, age, region, and country-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, as well as the trends, risk factors, and implications for the prevention of CVD.Methods: Detailed information from 1990 to 2017, including global, regional, and national rates of CVD, and 11 categories of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The time-dependent change in the trends of CVD burdens was evaluated by annual percentage change.Results: More than 17 million people died from CVD in 2017, which was approximately two times as many as cancer, and increased nearly 50% compared with 1990. Ischemic heart disease and stroke accounted for 85% of the total age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of CVD. The ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASYR) of CVD were 1.5 times greater in men compared with women. People over the age of 50 were especially at risk for developing CVD, with the number of cases and deaths in this age group accounting for more than 90% of all age groups. CVD mortality was related to regional economic development and the social demographic index. In regions with a high economic income or socio-demographic index, there was a greater decline in the ASDR of CVD. The ASDR of CVD in high SDI regions decreased more than 50% from 1990 to 2017. Tobacco use, diets low in whole grains, diets high in sodium, and high systolic blood pressure were the important risk factors related to CVD mortality.Conclusions: CVD remains a major cause of death and chronic disability in all regions of the world. Ischemic heart disease and stroke account for the majority of deaths related to CVD. Although the mortality rate for CVD has declined in recent years from a global perspective, the results of CVD data in 2017 suggest that the mortality and DALYs of CVD varied in different ages, sexes, and countries/regions around the world. Therefore, it is necessary to elucidate the specific characteristics of global CVD burden and establish more effective and targeted prevention strategies.

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Comparison of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies in the United States

10.1101/2021.03.04.21251264 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lloyd A C Chapman ◽

Poojan Shukla ◽

Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer ◽

Priya B. Shete ◽

Tomás M. León ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Factor ◽

The United States ◽

Older Individuals ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Single Risk Factor ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Comorbidity Status ◽

The Impact

AbstractA critical question in the COVID-19 pandemic is how to optimally allocate the first available vaccinations to maximize health impact. We used a static simulation model with detailed demographic and risk factor stratification to compare the impact of different vaccine prioritization strategies in the United States on key health outcomes, using California as a case example. We calibrated the model to demographic and location data on 28,175 COVID-19 deaths in California up to December 30, 2020, and incorporated variation in risk by occupation and comorbidity status using published estimates. We predicted the proportion of COVID-19 clinical cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted over 6 months relative to a scenario of no vaccination for five vaccination strategies that prioritized vaccination by a single risk factor: random allocation; targeting special populations (e.g. incarcerated individuals); targeting older individuals; targeting essential workers; and targeting individuals with comorbidities. Targeting older individuals averted the highest proportion of DALYs (40% for 5 million individuals vaccinated) and deaths (65%) but the lowest proportion of cases (12%). Targeting essential workers averted the lowest proportion of DALYs (25%) and deaths (33%). Allocating vaccinations simultaneously by age and location or by age, sex, race/ethnicity, location, occupation, and comorbidity status averted a significantly higher proportion of DALYs (48% and 56%) than any strategy prioritizing by a single risk factor. Our results corroborate findings of other studies that age targeting is the best single-risk-factor prioritization strategy for averting DALYs, and suggest that targeting by multiple risk factors would provide additional benefit.Significance statementCOVID-19 has caused a global pandemic, and a key public health question is who should get the first available vaccinations. Most vaccine prioritization analyses have only considered variation in risk of infection and death by age and occupation. We provide a more granular analysis with stratification by demographics, risk factors, and location. We predict the impact of different prioritization strategies on COVID-19 cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We find that age-based targeting averts the most deaths and DALYs of strategies targeting by a single risk factor, but that targeting by two or more risk factors simultaneously would avert significantly more deaths and DALYs. Our findings highlight the potential value of multiple-risk-factor targeting of vaccination when supply is limited.

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Trends and Risk Factors of Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Cardiovascular Diseases from 1990 to 2017: Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3724861 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Zhenkun Wang ◽

Zhishui Chen ◽

Congyi Wang ◽

Aihua Du ◽

Hong Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cardiovascular Diseases ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Global Burden Of Disease ◽

Global Burden ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Systematic Analysis ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Disease Study

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Examination of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and risk factors of breast cancer in 49 Asian countries, 1990–2019: estimates from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1093/jjco/hyab004 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rajesh Sharma

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Global Burden ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Asian Countries ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Standardized Mortality Rate

Abstract Background This study presents an up-to-date, comprehensive and comparative examination of breast cancer’s temporal patterns in females in Asia in last three decades. Methods The estimates of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted-life-years and risk factors of breast cancer in females in 49 Asian countries were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Results In Asia, female breast cancer incidence grew from 245 045[226 259–265 260] in 1990 to 914 878[815 789–1025 502] in 2019 with age-standardized incidence rate rising from 21.2/100 000[19.6–22.9] to 35.9/100 000[32.0–40.2] between 1990 and 2019. The death counts more than doubled from 136 665[126 094–148 380] to 337 822[301 454–375 251]. The age-standardized mortality rate rose marginally between 1990 and 2019 (1990: 12.1[11.0–13.1]; 2019: 13.4[12.0–14.9]). In 2019, age-standardized incidence rate varied from 17.2/100 000[13.95–21.4] in Mongolia to 122.5[92.1–160.7] in Lebanon and the age-standardized mortality rate varied 4-fold from 8.0/100 000 [7.2–8.8] in South Korea to 51.9[39.0–69.8] in Pakistan. High body mass index (5.6%), high fasting plasma glucose (5.6%) and secondhand smoke (3.5%) were the main contributory risk factors to all-age disability-adjusted-life-years due to breast cancer in Asia. Conclusion With growing incidence, escalating dietary and behavioural risk factors and lower survival rates due to late-disease presentation in low- and medium-income countries of Asia, breast cancer has become a significant public health threat. Its rising burden calls for increasing breast cancer awareness, preventive measures, early-stage detection and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia.

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Assessing antiretroviral therapy success in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality trends in Brazil, 1990–2017: an interrupted time series study

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1177/0956462420952989 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 095646242095298

Author(s):

Augusto Cesar Lara de Sousa ◽

Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio ◽

José Victor Afonso Coutinho ◽

Raphael Mendonça Guimarães

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Antiretroviral Therapy ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact ◽

Hiv Aids

To describe the trends of HIV/AIDS metrics related to the burden of disease for Brazil between 1990 and 2017 we conducted a timeseries analysis for HIV/AIDS indicators by extracting data from the Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated traditional prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, the number of years lost by HIV-related deaths (YLL) and disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). We estimated time series models and assessed the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the same indicators. In the set of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), the highest weight of its magnitude was due to YLL. There was a decline, especially after 1996, of DALY, mortality and YLL for HIV/AIDS. However, YLD, incidence, and prevalence increased over the same period. Also, the analysis of interrupted time series showed that the introduction of HAART into health policy had a significant impact on indicators, especially for DALY and YLL. We need to assess the quality of life of people living with HIV, especially among older adults. In addition, we need to focus on primary prevention, emphasizing methods to avoid infection and public policies should reflect this.

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Disability-adjusted Life Years for respiratory syncytial virus in children under 2 years

10.21203/rs.3.rs-20260/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

jefferson buendia ◽

Fernando Polack ◽

Juana Patricia Sanchez Villamil

Keyword(s):

Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽

Statistical Parameter ◽

Epidemiological Surveillance ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Rsv Infection ◽

Syncytial Virus ◽

The Impact

Abstract BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the leading cause of bronchiolitis in Colombia. There is growing evidence about the impact of Respiratory syncytial virus on society in terms of years of life lost due to this condition. The objective of the present study is to determine the Disability-Adjusted Life Years for respiratory syncytial virus in children under 2 years in ColombiaMETHODS: Data from the national epidemiological surveillance system were used to estimate DALYs, calculated from the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability due to RSV infection in Colombia. A bootstrapped method with 10000 iterations was used to estimate each statistical parameter using the package DALY calculator in R. RESULTS: In 2019, 260 873 years of life (CI95% 208 180- 347 023) were lost due to RSV bronchiolitis in Colombian children under 2 years. The estimated rate was 20 DALYs / 1000 person-year (95% CI 16 – 27).CONCLUSION: This is the first report estimating the impact of RSV bronchiolitis morbidity and mortality in Colombia. The findings of the present study suggest that the actual burden and cost of bronchiolitis due to RSV is high. Prevention strategies, such as RSV vaccination, to reduce morbidity associated with RSV infection should be encouraged in our country.

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