scholarly journals A stochastic simulation approach for production scheduling and investment planning in the tile industry

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Davoli ◽  
SA Gallo ◽  
MW Collins ◽  
R Melloni
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Production Scheduling ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Investment Planning

Stochastic simulation for determining the design flood of cascade reservoir systems

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 54-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baohong Lu ◽  
Huanghe Gu ◽  
Ziyin Xie ◽  
Jiufu Liu ◽  
Lejun Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Stochastic Simulation Model ◽  
The Impact

Stochastic simulation is widely applied for estimating the design flood of various hydrosystems. The design flood at a reservoir site should consider the impact of upstream reservoirs, along with any development of hydropower. This paper investigates and applies a stochastic simulation approach for determining the design flood of a complex cascade of reservoirs in the Longtan watershed, southern China. The magnitude of the design flood when the impact of the upstream reservoirs is considered is less than that without considering them. In particular, the stochastic simulation model takes into account both systematic and historical flood records. As the reliability of the frequency analysis increases with more representative samples, it is desirable to incorporate historical flood records, if available, into the stochastic simulation model. This study shows that the design values from the stochastic simulation method with historical flood records are higher than those without historical flood records. The paper demonstrates the advantages of adopting a stochastic flow simulation approach to address design-flood-related issues for a complex cascade reservoir system.

scholarly journals Evaluating the consequences of common assumptions in run reconstructions on Pacific-salmon biological status assessments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie J. Peacock ◽  
Eric Hertz ◽  
Carrie A. Holt ◽  
Brendan Connors ◽  
Cameron Freshwater ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Incomplete Data ◽  
Pacific Salmon ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
The Face

AbstractInformation on biological status is essential for designing, implementing, and evaluating management strategies and recovery plans for threatened or exploited species. However, the data required to quantify status are often limited, and it is important to understand how assessments of status may be biased by assumptions in data analysis. For Pacific salmon, biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and spawner-recruitment (SR) analyses often involve “run reconstructions” that impute missing spawner data, expand observed spawner abundance to account for unmonitored streams, assign catch to individual stocks, and quantify age-at-return. Using a stochastic simulation approach, we quantified how common assumptions in run reconstructions biased assessments of biological status based on spawner abundance. We found that status assessments were robust to most common assumptions in run reconstructions, even in the face of declining monitoring coverage, but that overestimating catch tended to increase rates of status misclassification. Our results lend confidence to biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and SR analyses, even in the face of incomplete data.

scholarly journals Evaluating the consequences of common assumptions in run reconstructions on Pacific salmon biological status assessments

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (12) ◽  
pp. 1904-1920
Author(s):  
Stephanie J. Peacock ◽  
Eric Hertz ◽  
Carrie A. Holt ◽  
Brendan Connors ◽  
Cameron Freshwater ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Incomplete Data ◽  
Pacific Salmon ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
The Face

Information on biological status is essential for designing, implementing, and evaluating management strategies and recovery plans for threatened or exploited species. However, the data required to quantify status are often limited, and it is important to understand how assessments of status may be biased by assumptions in data analysis. For Pacific salmon, biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and spawner–recruitment (SR) analyses often involve “run reconstructions” that impute missing spawner data, expand observed spawner abundance to account for unmonitored streams, assign catch to individual stocks, and quantify age-at-return. Using a stochastic simulation approach, we quantified how common assumptions in run reconstructions biased assessments of biological status based on spawner abundance. We found that status assessments were robust to most common assumptions in run reconstructions, even in the face of declining monitoring coverage, but that overestimating catch tended to increase rates of status misclassification. Our results lend confidence to biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and SR analyses, even in the face of incomplete data.

scholarly journals The theoretical surrender value in life insurance

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolino Ettore D’Ortona ◽  
Maria Sole Staffa
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Insurance Portfolio ◽  
Value Determination

In the context of the stochastic models for the management of life insurance portfolio, the authors explore, with simulation approach, the effects induced by the application of a particular method of calculation of the surrender value. In the life insurance, the policyholder position is, at any moment, quantified by the mathematical reserve. In case the reserve amount results are positive, the insurance company can allow the contract surrender, consisting in an amount payment, called surrender value, commensurate with the mathematical reserve. Generally, the insurance company enforces some restrictions in the surrender value determination, in order to avoid, first of all, that an amount is disbursed to the policyholder while, on the contrary, he results to be indebted to the Company. In this paper the authors will consider a surrender value calculation method based precisely on the profit recovery concept which shall be supplied by the contract in case it remains in the portfolio. Additionally, the authors shall analyze, by simulation approach, the effects caused by the enforcement of the surrender value calculation concept on a life portfolio profitability, and on the penalties extent enforced to the policyholders which cancel from the contract. Keywords: surrender value, life insurance, internal risk model, stochastic simulation

Modeling the Polymeric Microstructure of LDPE in Tubular and Autoclave Reactors with a Coupled Deterministic and Stochastic Simulation Approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 583-583
Author(s):  
Eric Neuhaus ◽  
Thomas Herrmann ◽  
Iakovos Vittorias ◽  
Dieter Lilge ◽  
Gerd Mannebach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Simulation Approach

Analysis of capacity requirements for storage reservoirs: a case study

1980 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 388-392
Author(s):  
Ivan Muzik
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Red Deer ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Reliable Information ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Storage Reservoirs

Three procedures of a reservoir storage estimation are considered in analyzing 61 years of historic mean monthly flows on the Red Deer River in Alberta: (1) the required storage capacity is computed from the historic sample; (2) the required storages dependent on the drought duration and severity are computed from the synthetic mass curves of inflow; and (3) the probability distribution of the required storage capacity is estimated from a large number of stochastically generated flow series. Comparison of the three procedures suggests that the stochastic simulation approach may often be the best method in providing reliable information for the design and operation of storage reservoirs.

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