scholarly journals Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (245) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Iseringhausen ◽  
Mwanza Nkusu ◽  
Wellian Wiranto
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Repeated Use ◽  
Imf Programs ◽  
Country Specific

This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.

The mediating role of medical professionalism on financial self-interest GPs

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (suppl 1) ◽  
pp. bjgp18X697193
Author(s):  
David McCaffrey ◽  
Chris O’Riordan ◽  
Felicity Kelliher
Keyword(s):  
General Practitioners ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Medical Professionalism ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Documentary Analysis ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Fluid Interpretation

BackgroundWhile no normative definition exists, medical professionalism emphasises a set of values, behaviours and relationships that underpin public trust in a physician. The empirical setting for this study is the Irish health care system where GPs receive income through a unique mix of private fee income and state funded capitation. GPs’ income per patient has fallen by 33% under state schemes between 2008 and 2013 due to changes in health policy and national fiscal constraints.AimThis paper examines how general practitioners conceptualise and operationalise medical professionalism and financial self-interest in the Irish healthcare system.MethodTo address this research aim, a historical documentary analysis (2009–2016) of national and medical newspapers was used to investigate GPs’ expressions of medical professionalism and financial self-interest.ResultsThe vagueness of language in differing definitions of medical professionalism may lead to a GP having a fluid interpretation depending on the situation. While general practitioners expressed core humanistic values, such as empathy and compassion, the expression of altruistic values were limited when practitioners indicated there was constraint on the financial resources of a practice.ConclusionCentral to the analysis of a medical practitioner’s treatment of patients and receipt of fee income is the tension between medical professionalism and financial self-interest. Developing an understanding of this tension has implications for those undertaking healthcare policy initiatives and the recruitment and retention of general practitioners in primary care.

Five Lessons from European Democracy

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Matijasevich
Keyword(s):  
Political Community ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Democratic Development ◽  
Track Record ◽  
European Democracy ◽  
Democratic Experience ◽  
Theory Of Democracy ◽  
The Eu

Outside of some states still struggling with post-communist transitions, Europe itself may be the first European democracy to collapse in decades. Though never a bastion of participatory democracy and even subject to continuous criticism due to its democratic deficit, the European Union (EU) has provided hope to those who envision a post-national democratic political community. As such, whether the EU survives its present crisis or not, cosmopolitan democrats will look to the EU as a vindication of their ideals. Though perhaps surprising given their track record, this paper will argue that political scientists, especially those concerned with democratization, can also be optimistic about what the EU has brought to the table in terms of how we conceive processes of democratic development. Throughout the paper it will be demonstrated that the creation and maintenance of the European democracy has challenged much of the literature's fundamental assumptions of what makes democracy work. Five key lessons from the European democratic experience will be presented in an attempt to disrupt some of these assumptions including lessons regarding the diversity of the demos, the contingency of democratic upkeep, the challenges of the state, the role of elites in political transformation, and the necessity of exclusion within inclusive spaces. Though a general theory of democracy will not be presented, suggestions will be made as to how we can incorporate some of these lessons into the dominant approaches to democracy found in the literature.   Full text available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v7i1.214

scholarly journals German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Müller
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Different Characteristics

AbstractBased on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. The paper applies textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into quantitative sentiment indices. First, a sentiment analysis utilizes dictionary methods and text regression methods, using recursive estimation. Next, the paper analyses the different characteristics of sentiments. In a third step, sentiment indices are used to test the efficiency of numerical forecasts. Using 12-month-ahead fixed horizon forecasts, fixed-effects panel regression results suggest some informational content of sentiment indices for growth and inflation forecasts. Finally, a forecasting exercise analyses the predictive power of sentiment indices for GDP growth and inflation. The results suggest weak evidence, at best, for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the sentiment indices.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil: The Role of Uncertainty and Spillovers

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4173
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
One Year ◽  
Lasso Estimator

We use a dataset for the group of G7 countries and China to study the out-of-sample predictive value of uncertainty and its international spillovers for the realized variance of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent) over the sample period from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. Using the Lasso estimator, we found evidence that uncertainty and international spillovers had predictive value for the realized variance at intermediate (two quarters) and long (one year) forecasting horizons in several of the forecasting models that we studied. This result holds also for upside (good) and downside (bad) variance, and irrespective of whether we used a recursive or a rolling estimation window. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

scholarly journals Internal and External Resources of the Lifestyle Leaders

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 612-612
Author(s):  
Martina Raue ◽  
Lisa D’Ambrosio ◽  
Taylor Patskanick ◽  
John Rudnik ◽  
Adam Felts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Health ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Oldest Old ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
External Resources ◽  
Resource Decline ◽  
New Challenges

Abstract With older age, people experience declines in resources and face new challenges. The goal of this study was to understand how resource decline affects the oldest olds’ well-being, but also to learn who they trust and where they go for advice in areas such as health, finances, and technology. This sample of 30 participants between the ages of 85 and 95 was generally resource-rich, scoring highest on self-esteem and optimism and lowest on mastery. Self-esteem and optimism correlated with financial resources, indicating a significant role of finances in this rather wealthy sample. Well-being was predicted by self-esteem and physical health. Presumably, their high levels of self-esteem compensate for the loss of other resources among the oldest old. The majority of lifestyle leaders trust in other people, and while friends and family are very important sources of advice, searching online was equally often mentioned as a source when looking for advice.

scholarly journals The Financing of Wastewater Treatment and the Balance of Payments for Water Services: Evidence from Municipalities in the Region of Valencia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5874
Author(s):  
Marcos García-López ◽  
Joaquín Melgarejo ◽  
Borja Montano
Keyword(s):  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Water Services ◽  
Tariff Structure ◽  
Total Price

Pollution from wastewater discharges requires the treatment of all wastewater to maintain water bodies in good condition, as well as the possibility of reusing this water. Thus, wastewater treatment is an activity that has developed significantly in the Region of Valencia and has significant costs, including energy, which represents the main economic cost and an important environmental cost. In this way, efficiency and adequate financing of this activity are essential to minimise our environmental impact. However, the main funding tool currently does not allow us to address this issue, so we have a wastewater treatment with a high environmental cost in the form of greenhouse gas emissions. This tool is part of the revenues of water services, so it is not entirely independent, but it also seeks to prevent households from paying too high a total price. This leads to a situation where changes are needed to improve the financing of the different water services, as the financial resources obtained are insufficient and do not allow the current environmental problems to be solved. The analysis shows the importance of an appropriate tariff structure, as well as the need to include aspects such as water pollution and energy costs in the wastewater treatment tariff.

When Does Psychological Fit Matter? The Moderating Role of Price on Self-Brand Congruity

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062110283
Author(s):  
Joe J. Gladstone ◽  
Emily N. Garbinsky ◽  
Sandra C. Matz
Keyword(s):  
Brand Personality ◽  
Effect Study ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
High Price ◽  
Psychological Profile ◽  
Psychological Mechanism ◽  
Brand Attributes ◽  
First Time ◽  
Moderating Role

People prefer brands whose perceived image reflects their own psychological profile, a finding referred to as the self-brand congruity effect. For the first time, we test this effect in the field by utilizing over 17,000 real bank transaction records (Study 1, N = 405). We demonstrate that the strength of self-brand congruity is related to the financial resources a person must spend to acquire the brand, such that the effect holds only when the brand being purchased has a high (vs. low) price. We conceptually replicate the effect (Study 2, N = 354) and provide causal evidence through an experiment (Study 3, N = 404), manipulating price and brand personality while holding other brand attributes constant. We also provide evidence for one psychological mechanism underlying why price moderates self-brand congruity, finding personality-matched brands elicit fewer concerns about postpurchase regret, a bigger risk for high-price brands (Study 4, N = 300).

Assessing the Role of Selective Fossilization Hypothesis in Determining Fossilizable Phonetic Errors in Tunisian EFL Learners’ Oral Output

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Aicha Rahal ◽  
Chokri Smaoui
Keyword(s):  
Second Language ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
First Language ◽  
Linguistic Features ◽  
Efl Learners ◽  
Phonetic Errors ◽  
Linguistic Phenomenon

Fossilization is said to be a distinctive characteristic of second language (L2) learning (Selinker, 1972, 1996; Han, 2004). It is the most pervasive among adult L2 learners (Han and Odlin, 2006). This linguistic phenomenon has been characterized by cessation of learning, even though the learner is exposed to frequent input. Based on the findings of the MA dissertation of the first researcher which is about ‘phonetic fossilization’ and where she conducted a longitudinal study, Han’s Selective Fossilization Hypothesis (SFL) is used to analyze the obtained fossilized phonetic errors in relation to L1 markedness and L2 robustness with a particular focus on fossilized vowel sounds. This is an analytical model for identifying both acquisitional and fossilizable linguistic features based on learners’ first language (L1) markedness and second language (L2) robustness. The article first gives an overview of the theory of Interlanguage and the phenomenon of fossilization. Then, it introduces SFL. This is an attempt to study fossilization scientifically. In other words, it tests the predictive power of a developed L1 Markedness and L2 Robustness rating scale based on Han’s (2009) model. The present study has pedagogic implications; it is an opportunity to raise teachers’ awareness on this common linguistic phenomenon.

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