scholarly journals CO<sub>2</sub> flux history 1982–2001 inferred from atmospheric data using a global inversion of atmospheric transport

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 2575-2659 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rödenbeck ◽  
S. Houweling ◽  
M. Gloor ◽  
M. Heimann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. Based on about 20 years of NOAA/CMDL's atmospheric CO2 concentration data and a global atmospheric tracer transport model, we estimate interannual variations and spatial patterns of surface CO2 fluxes in the period 01/1982–12/2000, by using a time-dependent Bayesian inversion technique. To increase the reliability of the estimated temporal features, particular care is exerted towards the selection of data records that are homogeneous in time. Fluxes are estimated on a grid-scale resolution (~8° latitude×10° longitude), constrained by a-priori spatial correlations, and then integrated over different sets of regions. The transport model is driven by interannually varying re-analysed meteorological fields. We make consistent use of unsmoothed measurements. In agreement with previous studies, land fluxes are estimated to be the main driver of interannual variations in the global CO2 fluxes, with the pace predominantly being set by the El Niño/La Niña contrast. An exception is a 2–3 year period of increased sink of atmospheric carbon after Mt. Pinatubo's volcanic eruption in 1991. The largest differences in fluxes between El Niño and La Niña are found in the tropical land regions, the main share being due to the Amazon basin. The flux variations for the Post-Pinatubo period, the 1997/1998 El Niño, and the 1999 La Niña events are exploited to investigate relations between CO2 fluxes and climate forcing. A rough comparison points to anomalies in precipitation as a prominent climate factor for short-term variability of tropical land fluxes, both through their role on NPP and through promoting fire in case of droughts. Some large flux anomalies seem to be directly related to large biomass burning events recorded by satellite observation. Global ocean carbon uptake shows a trend similar to the one expected if ocean uptake scales proportional to the anthropogenic atmospheric perturbation. In contrast to temporal variations, the longterm spatial flux distribution can be inferred with lesser robustness only. The tentative pattern estimated by the present inversion exhibits a northern hemisphere land sink on the order of 0.4 PgC/yr (for 01/1996–12/1999, non-fossil fuel carbon only) that is mainly confined to North America. Southern hemisphere land regions are carbon neutral, while the tropical land regions are taking up carbon (e.g., at a rate of 0.8 PgC/yr during 01/1996–2/1999). Ocean fluxes show larger uptake in the Northern mid to high latitudes than in the Southern mid latitude regions, in contrast to the estimates by Takahashi et al. (1999) based on in-situ measurements. On a regional basis, results that differ the most from previous estimates are large carbon uptake of 1 to 1.5 PgC/yr by the Southern temperate Pacific ocean region, weak outgassing from the Southern ocean, and a carbon source from eastern Europe.

scholarly journals CO<sub>2</sub> flux history 1982–2001 inferred from atmospheric data using a global inversion of atmospheric transport

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 1919-1964 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rödenbeck ◽  
S. Houweling ◽  
M. Gloor ◽  
M. Heimann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. Based on about 20 years of NOAA/CMDL's atmospheric CO2 concentration data and a global atmospheric tracer transport model, we estimate interannual variations and spatial patterns of surface CO2 fluxes in the period 01/1982-12/2000, by using a time-dependent Bayesian inversion technique. To increase the reliability of the estimated temporal features, particular care is exerted towards the selection of data records that are homogeneous in time. Fluxes are estimated on a grid-scale resolution (~8º latitude x 10º longitude), constrained by a-priori spatial correlations, and then integrated over different sets of regions. The transport model is driven by interannually varying re-analyzed meteorological fields. We make consistent use of unsmoothed measurements. In agreement with previous studies, land fluxes are estimated to be the main driver of interannual variations in the global CO2 fluxes, with the pace predominantly being set by the El Niño/La Niña contrast. An exception is a 2-3 year period of increased sink of atmospheric carbon after Mt.  Pinatubo's volcanic eruption in 1991. The largest differences in fluxes between El Niño and La Niña are found in the tropical land regions, the main share being due to the Amazon basin. The flux variations for the Post-Pinatubo period, the 1997/1998 El Niño, and the 1999 La Niña events are exploited to investigate relations between CO2 fluxes and climate forcing. A rough comparison points to anomalies in precipitation as a prominent climate factor for short-term variability of tropical land fluxes, both through their role on NPP and through promoting fire in case of droughts. Some large flux anomalies seem to be directly related to large biomass burning events recorded by satellite observation. Global ocean carbon uptake shows a trend similar to the one expected if ocean uptake scales proportional to the anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 perturbation. In contrast to temporal variations, the longterm spatial flux distribution can be inferred with lesser robustness only. The tentative pattern estimated by the present inversion exhibits a northern hemisphere land sink on the order of 0.4 PgC/yr (for 01/1996-12/1999, non-fossil fuel carbon only) that is mainly confined to North America. Southern hemisphere land regions are carbon neutral, while the tropical land regions are taking up carbon (e.g., at a rate of 0.8 PgC/yr during 01/1996-12/1999). Ocean fluxes show larger uptake in the Northern mid to high latitudes than in the Southern mid latitude regions, in contrast to the estimates by Takahashi et al. (1999) based on in-situ measurements. On a regional basis, results that differ the most from previous estimates are large carbon uptake of 1 to 1.5 PgC/yr by the Southern temperate Pacific ocean region, weak outgassing from the Southern ocean, and a carbon source from eastern Europe.

scholarly journals Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (23) ◽  
pp. 8575-8588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yang ◽  
Lynn M. Russell ◽  
Sijia Lou ◽  
Maryam A. Lamjiri ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sea Salt ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Enso Variability ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Two 150-yr preindustrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 (−0.4) W m−2 over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Owing to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day−1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day−1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

scholarly journals The Role of Buoy and Argo Observations in Two SST Analyses in the Global and Tropical Pacific Oceans

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 2517-2535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boyin Huang ◽  
Chunying Liu ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Huai-Min Zhang ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Argo Floats ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The relative roles of buoy and Argo observations in two sea surface temperature (SST) analyses are studied in the global ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean over 2000–16 using monthly Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and Daily Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 (DOISST). Experiments show an overall higher impact by buoys than Argo floats over the global oceans and an increasing impact by Argo floats. The impact by Argo floats is generally larger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on trends and anomalies of globally averaged SST by either one is small when the other is used. The warming trend over 2000–16 remains significant by including either buoys or Argo floats or both. In the tropical Pacific, the impact by buoys was large over 2000–05 when the number of Argo floats was low, and became smaller over 2010–16 when the number and area coverage of Argo floats increased. The magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events decreases when the observations from buoys, Argo floats, or both are excluded. The impact by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) and Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) is small in normal years and during El Niño events. The impact by TAO/TRITON buoys on La Niña events is small when Argo floats are included in the analysis systems, and large when Argo floats are not included. The reason for the different impact on El Niño and La Niña events is that the drifting buoys are more dispersed from the equatorial Pacific region by stronger trade winds during La Niña events.

scholarly journals Investigating the Response of Temperature and Salinity in the Agulhas Current Region to ENSO Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1829
Author(s):  
Corinne B. Trott ◽  
Bulusu Subrahmanyam ◽  
Caroline E. Washburn
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Agulhas Current ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Current Region

The Agulhas Current is a critical component of global ocean circulation and has been observed to respond to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events via its temperature and salinity signatures. In this research, we use sea surface salinity (SSS) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, sea surface temperature (SST) observations from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), sea surface height (SSH) anomalies from altimetry, and the Oceanic Niño Index to study the SMAP satellite time period of April 2015 through March 2020 (to observe full years of study). We see warming and high salinities after El Niño, cooling and fresher surface waters after La Niña, and a stronger temperature response than that of salinity. About one year after the 2015 El Niño, there is a warming of the entire region except at the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. About two years after the event, there is an increase in salinity along the eastern coast of Africa and in the Agulhas Current region. About two years after the 2016 and 2018 La Niñas, there is a cooling south of Madagascar and in the Agulhas Current. There are no major changes in salinity seen in the Agulhas Current, but there is a highly saline mass of water west of the Indonesian Throughflow about two years after the La Niña events. Wavelet coherence analysis finds that SSS and ENSO are most strongly correlated a year after the 2015 El Niño and two years after the 2016 La Niña.

ANALISIS DAERAH RAWAN KEKERINGAN LAHAN JAGUNG BERDASARKAN IKLIM OLDEMAN DAN KETERSEDIAN AIR TANAH DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR SAAT PERIODE EL NINO DAN LA NINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.

A Influência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre a dinâmica climática da região Amazônica

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e2018014
Author(s):  
Samya de Freitas MOREIRA ◽  
Cleiciane Silva da CONCEIÇÃO ◽  
Milla Cristina Santos da CRUZ ◽  
Antônio PEREIRA JÚNIOR
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Caracterização climática da temperatura do ar em Veranópolis, Rio Grande do Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Heemann Junges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

Estudos locais de caraterização e variabilidade climática são fundamentais para geração de informações mais adaptadas às atividades agrícolas desenvolvidas em um município ou região. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar climaticamente e analisar a influência de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) na série 1956-2015 de temperatura do ar de Veranópolis, RS. Para caracterização climática foram estabelecidas estatísticas descritivas das temperaturas do ar máximas, mínimas e médias mensais, estacional e anual na série e normal climatológica padrão 1961- 1990. Para identificação de diferenças entre estações e influência de eventos ENOS, os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e teste de Duncan. Os resultados indicaram que a temperatura média anual é de 17,3ºC, variando entre 12,7ºC (julho) e 21,8ºC (janeiro). O clima é do tipo Cfb, de acordo com a classificação climática de Köppen e TE (temperado) na classificação climática do Estado. Temperaturas mínimas médias mensais inferiores a 10ºC ocorrem de maio a setembro, período de maior variabilidade interanual das temperaturas máximas (desvio padrão entre 1,5º e 1,8ºC), mínimas (1,6-1,8ºC) e médias mensais (1,4-1,7ºC). Anos de La Niña possuem temperaturas médias estacionais inferiores as de El Niño, embora diferenciação em relação a neutros ocorra somente para temperaturas mínimas na primavera e máximas no outono.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963–2011

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 421-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina

Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963–2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge–trough variations. The intensified ridge–trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge–trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous –NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

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