Tradeoffs in water extremes: combining hydraulic and economic modeling to assess the economic and financial viability of de Lastras de Cuéllar Dam, Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héctor González López ◽  
C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco ◽  
Laura Gil-García
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Regulated River ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Operation Rules ◽  
Floods And Droughts

<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Growing population and water demand (e.g for irrigation, water supply) and the vagaries of climate, now aggravated due to climate change, intensify societal exposure to water extremes and the economic and environmental impact of floods and droughts in Mediterranean basins. The Douro River Basin Authority (DRBA) in central Spain is assessing whether to build a dam in the Cega Catchment (Spain) with the twofold objective of substituting irrigation withdrawals from overallocated aquifers with relatively more abundant surface water, and of mitigating flood damage in the middle and lower stretches of the Cega River -the only non-regulated river in the DRB. This paper assesses and compares the costs of two alternative adaptation strategies to growing scarcity and more frequent and intense water extremes, namely dam construction v. the statu quo strategy where no dam is built. To this end, a Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programing (PMAUP) that mimics farmer´s behavior and responses is used to assess the impacts on agricultural employment and gross value added of selected strategies in the irrigation sector; while the hydrologic model River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) is used to simulate the economic impact of flood events considering standard return periods, based on the global flood depth-damage functions developed by Huizinga et al. (2017). Both models are used to run 900 simulations reproducing alternative socioeconomic and climatic/hydrologic scenarios. The result is a database representing multiple plausible futures, which is used to identify vulnerabilities of proposed adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs between responses -notably those referring to the design and operation rules of the dam, and the potential impact of floods and droughts. This methodology and the resultant database are combined with experts’ knowledge through robust decision-making tools to identify the preferred (i.e. robust) adaptation policy.</p>

Bayesian inference analysis of the uncertainty linked to the evaluation of potential flood damage in urban areas

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 1669-1677 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Fontanazza ◽  
G. Freni ◽  
V. Notaro
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Bayesian Inference Analysis ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
High Uncertainty

Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth–damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth–damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth–damage curves. A Bayesian inference analysis was proposed along with a probabilistic approach for the parameters estimating. The analysis demonstrated that the Bayesian approach is very effective considering that the available databases are usually short.

Economic Contributions of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Food Industries in Florida in 2015

EDIS ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan W. Hodges ◽  
Mohammad Rahmani ◽  
Christa D. Court
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Food Industries ◽  
Business Taxes ◽  
Commodity Production ◽  
Industry Output ◽  
Property Income ◽  
Broad Array ◽  
Industry Sectors

This analysis was conducted using the Implan regional economic modeling system and associated state and county databases (IMPLAN Group LLC) to estimate economic multipliers and contributions for over 500 different industry sectors. Multipliers capture the indirect and induced economic activity generated by re-spending of income or sales revenues in a regional economy. A collection of 121 industry sectors were included in the analysis to represent the broad array of activities encompassed by agricultural and natural-resource commodity production, manufacturing, distribution and supporting services in Florida. Economic contributions can be measured in terms of employment, industry output, value added, exports, labor income, other property income, and business taxes. A glossary of economic terms used in this report is provided following this summary.

scholarly journals Minimal Building Flood Fragility and Loss Function Portfolio for Resilience Analysis at the Community Level

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar M. Nofal ◽  
John W. van de Lindt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Loss Functions ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
Flood Duration ◽  
Propagation Of Uncertainty ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Building Loss

Current flood vulnerability analyses rely on deterministic methods (e.g., stage–damage functions) to quantify resulting damage and losses to the built environment. While such approaches have been used extensively by communities, they do not enable the propagation of uncertainty into a risk- or resilience-informed decision process. In this paper, a method that allows the development of building fragility and building loss functions is articulated and applied to develop an archetype portfolio that can be used to model buildings in a typical community. The typical single-variable flood vulnerability function, normally based on flood depth, is extended to a multi-variate flood vulnerability function, which is a function of both flood depth and flood duration, thereby creating fragility surfaces. The portfolio presented herein consists of 15 building archetypes that can serve to populate a community-level model to predict damage and resulting functionality from a scenario flood event. The prediction of damage and functionality of buildings within a community is the first step in developing risk-informed mitigation decisions to improve community resilience.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Urban Flood on Traffic Disruption using Rainfall–Depth–Vehicle Speed Relationship

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung-Su Choo ◽  
Dong-Ho Kang ◽  
Byung-Sik Kim
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Driving Speed

The transportation network enables movement of people and goods and is the basis of economic activity. Recently, short-term locally heavy rains occur frequently in urban areas, causing serious obstacles to road flooding and increasing economic and social effects. Therefore, in advanced weather countries, many studies have been conducted on realistic and reliable impact forecasting by analyzing socioeconomic impacts, not just information transmission as weather forecasts. In this paper, we use the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) and Flood Inundation model (FLO-2D model) to calculate the flooding level in urban areas caused by rainfall and use the flooding rate. In addition, the rainfall–flood depth curve and the Flood–Vehicle Speed curve were presented during the analysis, and the traffic disruption map was prepared using this. The results of this study were compared with previous studies and verified by rainfall events in 2011. As a result of the verification, the result was similar to the actual flooding, and when the same rainfall occurred within the range of the target area, it was confirmed that there were sections that could not be passed and sections that could be passed smoothly. Therefore, the results suggested in this study will be helpful for the driver’s route selection by using the urban flood damage analysis and vehicle driving speed analysis.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in Coastal Flood Risk Assessments in Small Island Developing States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo U. Parodi ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Ap van Dongeren ◽  
Stuart G. Pearson ◽  
Jeremy D. Bricker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Small Island Developing States ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Considering the likely increase of coastal flooding in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), coastal managers at the local and global level have been developing initiatives aimed at implementing Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures and adapting to climate change. Developing science-based adaptation policies requires accurate coastal flood risk (CFR) assessments, which are often subject to the scarcity of sufficiently accurate input data for insular states. We analysed the impact of uncertain inputs on coastal flood damage estimates, considering: (i) significant wave height, (ii) storm surge level and (iii) sea level rise (SLR) contributions to extreme sea levels, as well as the error-driven uncertainty in (iv) bathymetric and (v) topographic datasets, (vi) damage models and (vii) socioeconomic changes. The methodology was tested through a sensitivity analysis using an ensemble of hydrodynamic models (XBeach and SFINCS) coupled with an impact model (Delft-FIAT) for a case study at the islands of São Tomé and Príncipe. Model results indicate that for the current time horizon, depth damage functions (DDF) and digital elevation model (DEM) dominate the overall damage estimation uncertainty. We find that, when introducing climate and socioeconomic uncertainties to the analysis, SLR projections become the most relevant input for the year 2100 (followed by DEM and DDF). In general, the scarcity of reliable input data leads to considerable predictive error in CFR assessments in SIDS. The findings of this research can help to prioritise the allocation of limited resources towards the acquisitions of the most relevant input data for reliable impact estimation.

scholarly journals Estimation of an absolute flood damage curve based on an Austrian case study under a dam breach scenario

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 881-894 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Prettenthaler ◽  
P. Amrusch ◽  
C. Habsburg-Lothringen
Keyword(s):  
Future Development ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Damage Function ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Austrian Case

Abstract. To date, in Austria no empirical assessment of absolute damage curves has been realized on the basis of detailed information on flooded buildings due to a dam breach, presumably because of the lack of data. This paper tries to fill this gap by estimating an absolute flood-damage curve, based on data of a recent flood event in Austria in 2006. First, a concise analysis of the case study area is conducted, i.e., the maximum damage potential is identified by using raster-based GIS. Thereafter, previous literature findings on existing flood-damage functions are considered in order to determine a volume-water damage function that can be used for further flood damage assessment. Finally, the flood damage function is cross validated and applied in prediction of damage potential in the study area. For future development of the estimated flood damage curve, and to aid more general use, we propose verification against field data on damage caused by natural waves in rivers.

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD DAMAGE FUNCTIONS BASED ON INSURANCE LOSS DUE TO 2015 KANTO-TOHOKU HEAVY RAINFALL

2017 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. I_1279-I_1284
Author(s):  
Rikito HISAMATSU ◽  
Ken KAWABE ◽  
Yusuke MIZUNO ◽  
Yoshinobu SHINOZUKA ◽  
Kei HORIE
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Damage Functions

scholarly journals Flood hazard assessment of a flood-prone intensively urbanized area – A case study from Samsun Province, Turkey

Geofizika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Neslihan Beden ◽  
Aslı Ülke Keskin
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
The Social ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

Flooding is one of the most catastrophic events among the wide spectrum of natural disasters that impact human communities. The identification of floodprone areas and the probability of occurrence, or estimated return period, of flood events are fundamental to proper planning for flood management and minimization of the social and economic costs of flood damage. In this study, 1D/2D coupled flood models of the Mert River, which flows into the Black Sea at Samsun in north-central Turkey, were developed. Based on the flood modeling results, flood extent, flood depth and flood hazard maps for the river were produced and they showed that the study area is particularly flood prone, as evidenced by catastrophic flooding in 2012. Specifically, the estimated 100, 500 and 1000-year peak discharges would affect 184 ha, 262 ha and 304 ha, respectively, of the 1,200 ha study area. Hazard ratings for the areas expected to be affected are shown in the flood hazard maps generated. The results of this research can be used by local government agencies in Samsun for the development of policies, strategies and actions that would help minimize the social and economic impacts of flooding, especially adjacent to the downstream sections where there is intensive development on the flood plain.

scholarly journals Flood Depth-Damage Functions for Built Environment

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 553-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimilia Pistrika ◽  
George Tsakiris ◽  
Ioannis Nalbantis
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Flood Depth
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