scholarly journals Modelling landfast sea ice and its influence on ocean-ice interactions in the area of the Totten Glacier, East Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillian Van Achter ◽  
Thierry Fichefet ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
Charles Pelletier ◽  
Jean Sterlin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Coastal Polynya ◽  
Landfast Sea Ice ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is of major climate interest because of the large fluctuation of its grounding line and of its potential vulnerability to climate change. The ocean above the continental shelf in front of the Totten ice shelf exhibits large extents of landfast sea ice with low interannual variability. Landfast sea ice is mostly not or sole crudely represented in current climate models. These models are potentially omitting or misrepresenting important effects related to this type of sea ice, such as its influence on coastal polynya locations. Yet, the impact of the landfast sea<br>ice on the ocean – ice shelf interactions is poorly understood. Using a series of high-resolution, regional NEMO-LIM-based experiments including an<br>explicit treatment of ocean – ice shelf interactions over the years 2001-2010, we simulate a realistic landfast sea ice extent in the area of Totten Glacier<br>through a combination of a sea ice tensile strength parameterisation and a grounded iceberg representation. We show that the presence of landfast sea<br>ice impacts seriously both the location of coastal polynyas and the ocean mixed layer depth along the coast, in addition to favouring the intrusion of<br>mixed Circumpolar Deep Water into the ice shelf cavities. Depending on the local bathymetry and the landfast sea ice distribution, landfast sea ice affects ice shelf cavities in different ways, either by increasing the ice melt (+28% for the Moscow University ice shelf) or by reducing its seasonal cycle<br>(+10% in March-May for the Totten ice shelf). This highlights the importance of including an accurate landfast sea ice representation in regional and<br>eventually global climate models</p>

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Kate E. Ashley ◽  
Robert McKay ◽  
Johan Etourneau ◽  
Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo ◽  
Alan Condron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Glacial Meltwater ◽  
System Models ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability. Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (∼ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate E. Ashley ◽  
James A. Bendle ◽  
Robert McKay ◽  
Johan Etourneau ◽  
Francis J. Jimenez-Espejo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Glacial Meltwater ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract. Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large cavity ice shelves is not included in current models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea-ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport and sea-ice variability which includes. Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to supercooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth which slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.

scholarly journals Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1383-1406 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Hezel ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
F. Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all 9 models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. These two scenarios imply that summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in 7 of 9 models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent.

A circumpolar coupled ocean – Antarctic ice sheet configuration for investigating recent changes in Southern Ocean heat content

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Pelletier ◽  
Lars Zipf ◽  
Konstanze Haubner ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Physical Phenomena ◽  
The Impact

<p>From 2016 on, observed tendencies of Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) have shifted from cooling down (with SIE increase) to warming up (SIE decrease). This change of Southern Ocean surface thermal properties has been sustained since, which indicates that it is not solely due to the interannual variability of the atmosphere, but also to modifications in the ocean itself. Among other physical phenomena, the acceleration of continental ice shelf melt, through its subsequent impact on the Southern Ocean stratification, has been proposed as one of the potential meaningful drivers of the sea ice changes. Reciprocally, recent studies suggest that besides atmosphere forcings, the upper ocean thermal content bears significant impact on ice shelf melt rates and dynamics. Here we present a new circumpolar coupled Southern Ocean – Antarctic ice sheet configuration aiming at investigating the impact of this ocean – continental ice feedback, developed within the framework of the PARAMOUR project. Our setting relies on the ocean and sea ice model NEMO3.6-LIM3 sending ice shelf melt rates to the Antarctic ice sheet model f.ETISh v1.5, who in turn responds to it and provides updated ice shelf cavity geometry. Both technical aspects and first coupled results are presented.</p>

Investigating the climate variability in the Totten area using NEMO-LIM regional model.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillian Van Achter ◽  
Charles Pelletier ◽  
Thierry Fichefet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Shelf Area ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Landfast Ice ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Totten ice shelf drains over 570 000 km² of East Antarctica. Most of the ice sheet that drains through the Totten ice-shelf is from Aurora Subglacial Basin and is marine based making the region potentially vulnerable to rapid ice sheet colapse.<br>Understanding how the changes in ocean circulation and properties are causing increased basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves is crucial for predicting future sea level rise.<br>In the context of the The PARAMOUR project (decadal predictability and variability of polar climate: the role of atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere multiscale interaction), we use a high resolution NEMO-LIM 3.6 regional model to investigate the variability and the predictability of the coupled climate system over the Totten area in East Antarctica.<br>In this poster, we will present our on-going work about the impact of landfast ice over the variability of the system. Landfast ice is sea ice that is fastened to the coastline, to the sea floor along shoals or to grouded icebergs. Current sea ice models are unable to represent very crudely the formation, maintenance and decay of coastal landfast ice. We applyed several parameterization for modeling landfast ice over the Totten ice shelf area.</p>

scholarly journals Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Predictability: Initialization Month Dependence

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 4371-4390 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Day ◽  
S. Tietsche ◽  
E. Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract Seasonal-to-interannual predictions of Arctic sea ice may be important for Arctic communities and industries alike. Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea ice is potentially predictable but that the skill of predictions of the September extent minimum, initialized in early summer, may be low. The authors demonstrate that a melt season “predictability barrier” and two predictability reemergence mechanisms, suggested by a previous study, are robust features of five global climate models. Analysis of idealized predictions with one of these models [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1.2 (HadGEM1.2)], initialized in January, May and July, demonstrates that this predictability barrier exists in initialized forecasts as well. As a result, the skill of sea ice extent and volume forecasts are strongly start date dependent and those that are initialized in May lose skill much faster than those initialized in January or July. Thus, in an operational setting, initializing predictions of extent and volume in July has strong advantages for the prediction of the September minimum when compared to predictions initialized in May. Furthermore, a regional analysis of sea ice predictability indicates that extent is predictable for longer in the seasonal ice zones of the North Atlantic and North Pacific than in the regions dominated by perennial ice in the central Arctic and marginal seas. In a number of the Eurasian shelf seas, which are important for Arctic shipping, only the forecasts initialized in July have continuous skill during the first summer. In contrast, predictability of ice volume persists for over 2 yr in the central Arctic but less in other regions.

scholarly journals How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 3539-3573 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Zunz ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
F. Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Observations over the last 30 yr have shown that the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has slightly increased since 1979. Mechanisms responsible for this positive trend have not been well established yet and climate models are generally unable to simulate correctly this expansion. In this study, we focus on two related hypotheses that could explain the misrepresentation of the positive trend in sea ice extent by climate models: an unrealistic internal variability and an inadequate initialization of the system. For that purpose, we analyze the evolution of sea ice around the Antarctic simulated by 24 different general circulation models involved in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). On the one hand, historical simulations, driven by external forcing and initialized without observations, are examined. They provide information about the mean state, the variability and the trend in sea ice extent simulated by each model. On the other hand, decadal prediction experiments, driven by external forcing and initialized with some observed fields, allow us to assess the impact of the representation of the observed initial state on the quality of model predictions. Our analyses show that CMIP5 models respond to the forcing, including the one induced by stratospheric ozone depletion, by reducing the sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. Some simulations display an increase in sea ice extent. However, models strongly overestimate the variability of sea ice extent and the initialization methods currently used in models do not improve systematically the simulated trends in sea ice extent. On the basis of those results, a critical role of the internal variability in the observed increase in the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean could not be ruled out but current models results appear inadequate to test more precisely this hypothesis.

An ice-free Arctic Ocean: history, science, and scepticism

Polar Record ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Luedtke
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Physical Systems ◽  
Far North ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Warm Spell ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTOver the last three centuries, geographers, oceanographers, geophysicists, glaciologists, climatologists, and geoengineers have shown great interest in Arctic Ocean sea ice extent. Many of these experts envisaged an ice-free Arctic Ocean. This article studies three stages of that narrative: the belief in an ice-free Arctic Ocean, the potential for one, and the threat of one. Eighteenth and nineteenth century interest in accessing navigable polar sea routes energised the belief in an iceless polar sea; an early twentieth century North Hemispheric warm spell combined with mid-century cold war geostrategy to open the potential for drastic sea ice loss; and, most recently, climate models have illuminated the threat of a seasonally ice-free future, igniting widespread concerns about the impact this might have on Earth's natural and physical systems. This long narrative of an ice-free Arctic Ocean can help to explain modern-day scepticism of human-induced environmental change in the far north.

scholarly journals Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn Rudebusch ◽  
Francis Diebold
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high amounts of carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver <em>probability</em> assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s—much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models. Our results are also consistent with projections from bivariate regressions of sea ice extent and carbon emissions. </p>

scholarly journals Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 3963-3998 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. S. Rogers ◽  
J. E. Walsh ◽  
T. S. Rupp ◽  
L. W. Brigham ◽  
M. Sfraga
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
State And Local

Abstract. There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally-based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice los has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead-lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants, and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document