Selecting climate projections for services: the DRIAS-2020 dataset

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lola Corre ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
Sébastien Bernus ◽  
Agathe Drouin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Climatic Information

<p>The French National Climate Service “Drias, futures of climate” was launched in 2012, as a response of the French scientific community to society’s need for climatic information. It is mainly composed of a website that provides easy access to the best available climate data to characterize climate change over France. Latest advances developed in 2020 include the availability of a new set of regional climate scenarios corrected by a quantile-mapping based method with correction depending on the weather regime. As for the previous set, the climate projections are based on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past years. Singular effort was done to build a robust and synthetic set that well represents the uncertainties of climate change over France. The different criteria defined to select the simulations will be presented, and the range of the projected climate change will be examined, with respect to larger ensembles.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals DRIAS: a step toward Climate Services in France

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lémond ◽  
Ph. Dandin ◽  
S. Planton ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Societal Needs ◽  
Access To Data

Abstract. DRIAS (Providing access to Data on French Regionalized climate scenarios and Impacts on the environment and Adaptation of Societies) is a 2-yr project (2010–2012). It is funded by the GICC (Management and Impact of Climate Change) program of the French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation, and Housing (MEDDTL). DRIAS is to provide easy access to French regional climate data and products in order to facilitate mitigation and adaptation studies. The DRIAS project focuses on existing French regional climate projections obtained from national modelling groups such as: IPSL, CERFACS, and CNRM. It is more than a data server, it also delivers all kinds of climate information from numerical data to tailored climate products. Moreover, guidance is to be provided to end-users in order to promote best practices and know-how. Whilst the project is coordinated by the Department of Climatology at Météo-France, a multidisciplinary group of users and stakeholders at large concerned by climate change issues is also involved with the project. The ultimate goal will be to identify societal needs, validate the decision making processes, and thus facilitate exchanges between producers and practitioners. Key results from the DRIAS project will contribute to the implementation of French Climate Services.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Nam ◽  
Bente Tiedje ◽  
Susanne Pfeifer ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniel Eggert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Data Formats

<p>Everyone, politicians, public administrations, business owners, and citizens want to know how climate changes will affect them locally. Having such knowledge offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices and take action towards mitigation and adaptation.</p><p> </p><p>In order to develop locally relevant climate service products and climate advisory services, as we do at GERICS, we must extract localized climate change information from Regional Climate Model ensemble simulations.</p><p> </p><p>Common challenges associated with developing such services include the transformation of petabytes of data from physical quantities such as precipitation, temperature, or wind, into user-applicable quantities such as return periods of heavy precipitation, e.g. for legislative or construction design frequency. Other challenges include the technical and physical barriers in the use and interpretation of climate data, due to large data volume, unfamiliar software and data formats, or limited technical infrastructure. The interpretation of climate data also requires scientific background knowledge, which limit or influence the interpretation of results.</p><p> </p><p>These barriers hinder the efficient and effective transformation of big data into user relevant information in a timely and reliable manner. To enable our society to adapt and become more resilient to climate change, we must overcome these barriers. In the Helmholtz funded Digital Earth project we are tackling these challenges by developing a Climate Change Workflow.</p><p> </p><p>In the scope of this Workflow, the user can <span>easily define a region of interest and extract </span><span>the</span><span> relevant </span><span>climate data </span><span>from the simulations available </span><span>at</span><span> the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Following which, </span><span>a general overview of the projected changes, in precipitation </span><span>for example, for multiple climate projections is presented</span><span>. It conveys the bandwidth, </span><span>i.e. </span><span>the minimum/maximum range by an ensemble of regional climate model projections. </span><span>We implemented the sketched workflow in a web-based tool called </span><span>The Climate Change Explorer. </span><span>It</span> addresses barriers associated with extracting locally relevant climate data from petabytes of data, in unfamilar data formats, and deals with interpolation issues, using a more intuitive and user-friendly web interface.</p><p> </p><p>Ultimately, the Climate Change Explorer provides concise information on the magnitude of projected climate change and the range of these changes for individually defined regions, such as found in GERICS ‘Climate Fact Sheets’. This tool has the capacity to also improve other workflows of climate services, allowing them to dedicate more time in deriving user relevant climate indicies; enabling politicians, public administrations, and businesses to take action.</p>

Future Climate and Potential Impacts at the Study Sites

2017 ◽  
pp. 33-78
Author(s):  
Bob van Oort
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

The chapter opens with statements of uncertainties in climate modelling. Then, the most updated regional climate projections are downscaled by combining them with existing climate data on local level (statistical downscaling) and modified by local conditions (elevation, aspect). Climate scenarios are computed for 2030, 2050 and 2100 for all the six study sites (Chapters 4-9), using a 12 x 12 km grid.

scholarly journals Assessment of potential hydrological climate change impacts in Kastoria basin (Western Macedonia, Greece) using EUROCORDEX regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Northern Greece

<p>The Mediterranean region is expected to present reduced availability of water resources due to climate change. This study aims to assess the potential hydrological responses to climate change in the Kastoria basin (Western Macedonia, Northern Greece) for the period 2019-2078. Climate projections from eight regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX were bias-adjusted using the linear scaling method. The bias-adjusted climate data were used to force the FeFLOW hydro-logical model to predict the discharge of the Kastoria aquifer towards lake Orestiada along with the projected groundwater level distribution. Precipitation (temperature) shows a tendency to decrease (increase) mainly in late spring to early autumn while increase (decrease) in the other sea-sons. Moreover, results indicate a significant increase in temperature and a slight decrease in precipitation towards 2078, while the predicted groundwater level of Kastoria aquifer will reduce slightly. However, the future hydrological behavior of the basin indicates a substantial reduction by approximately 15% of total water yield towards the end of the century.</p>

scholarly journals Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove–salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (43) ◽  
pp. 21602-21608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle C. Cavanaugh ◽  
Emily M. Dangremond ◽  
Cheryl L. Doughty ◽  
A. Park Williams ◽  
John D. Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Salt Marsh ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature

Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photographs, and maps with climate data to show that the current ecotone between mangroves and salt marshes in northeast Florida has shifted between mangrove and salt marsh dominance at least 6 times between the late 1700s and 2017 due to decadal-scale fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events. Model projections of daily minimum temperature from 2000 through 2100 indicate an increase in annual minimum temperature by 0.5 °C/decade. Thus, although recent mangrove range expansion should indeed be placed into a broader historical context of an oscillating system, climate projections suggest that the recent trend may represent a more permanent regime shift due to the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals The new high resolution climate projections dataset DRIAS-2020 over France

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
Sebastien Bernus ◽  
Lola Corre ◽  
Viviane Gouget ◽  
Maryvonne Kerdoncuff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Adaptation Studies ◽  
The Past ◽  
Geographical Variations ◽  
Northern Half ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Scientific Report

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;This &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;communication will &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;present the &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;new &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;high resolution&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; climate &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;dataset&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; over France &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;named DRIAS-2020, available&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; on the &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;French &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;partnership &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;national &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;climate service &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;DRIAS&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; (Meteo-France, IPSL and CERFACS) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;and &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;the associated&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span&gt;report&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span&gt;published on January 2021.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;As for the previous &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;publication in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; 2014, the climate projections are based on the Euro-Cordex ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past six years. Different selection criteria were defined to build a robust and synthetic set (8 to 12 simulations for each of the three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) that best represents the uncertainties of climate change in France. The selected climate simulations were corrected by the new Adamont method &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;(Verfaillie et al, 2017) applied to the SAFRAN reanalysis at 8km resolution over France&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;. This method provides the DRIAS portal &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;(www.drias-climat.fr) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;with a new coherent dataset of several meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, snow, humidity, wind, radiation). &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The availability of this dataset was joined &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;with&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; a scientific report &amp;#8220;DRIAS-2020&amp;#8221; analysing the expected climate change in France during the 21&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;st&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt; century.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;mean&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; temperature is &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;increasing&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; for all three scenarios, with a continuous rise until the end of the century (period 2071-2100) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with median values reaching +2.1&amp;#176;C and +3.9&amp;#176;C respectively. This warming, more marked in the summer, presents a geographical variability with a stronger increase in the east of the country. This change in temperature is also reflected in the extremes, with a &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;dramatic&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span&gt;rise&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; in the number of heat wave days in all three scenarios. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The evolution of annual precipitation&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;, stable or slightly increasing depending on the horizons and scenarios, is accompanied by model uncertainty, which can reverse the sign of the trend. This evolution is subject to seasonal (increase in winter, decrease in summer) and geographical variations (increase in the northern half and decrease in &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;some&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; regions of the &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;South&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;). The evolution of extreme precipitation and summer droughts also presents strong uncertainties.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;These data are intended to be widely used in France for all impact or adaptation studies&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span&gt;such as &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;already done for &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;snow cover &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;(ClimSnow) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;or &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;in progress for &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;water resource (National Explore2 project).&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Regional Climate Scenarios for use in Nordic Water Resources Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rummukainen ◽  
J. Räisänen ◽  
D. Bjørge ◽  
J.H. Christensen ◽  
O.B. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Frost ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

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