scholarly journals Comparison of spatial downscaling methods of general circulation models to study climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Latombe ◽  
Ariane Burke ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Guillaume Levavasseur ◽  
Christophe Dumas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Paleoclimate Reconstructions ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The extent to which climate conditions influenced the spatial distribution of hominin populations in the past is highly debated. General Circulation Models (GCMs) and archaeological data have been used to address this issue. Most GCMs are not currently capable of simulating past surface climate conditions with sufficiently detailed spatial resolution to distinguish areas of potential hominin habitat, however. In this paper we propose a Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDM) for increasing the resolution of climate model outputs in a computationally efficient way. Our method uses a generalized additive model (GAM), calibrated over present-day data, to statistically downscale temperature and precipitation from the outputs of a GCM simulating the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (19–23 000 BP) over Western Europe. Once the SDM is calibrated, we first interpolate the coarse-scale GCM outputs to the final resolution and then use the GAM to compute surface air temperature and precipitation levels using these interpolated GCM outputs and fine resolution geographical variables such as topography and distance from an ocean. The GAM acts as a transfer function, capturing non-linear relationships between variables at different spatial scales. We tested three different techniques for the first interpolation of GCM output: bilinear, bicubic, and kriging. The results were evaluated by comparing downscaled temperature and precipitation at local sites with paleoclimate reconstructions based on paleoclimate archives (archaeozoological and palynological data). Our results show that the simulated, downscaled temperature and precipitation values are in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions at local sites confirming that our method for producing fine-grained paleoclimate simulations suitable for conducting paleo-anthropological research is sound. In addition, the bilinear and bicubic interpolation techniques were shown to distort either the temporal variability or the values of the response variables, while the kriging method offers the best compromise. Since climate variability is an aspect of their environment to which human populations may have responded in the past this is an important distinction.

scholarly journals Comparison of spatial downscaling methods of general circulation model results to study climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2563-2579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Latombe ◽  
Ariane Burke ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Guillaume Levavasseur ◽  
Christophe Dumas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Interpolation Technique ◽  
Paleoclimate Reconstructions ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The extent to which climate conditions influenced the spatial distribution of hominin populations in the past is highly debated. General circulation models (GCMs) and archaeological data have been used to address this issue. Most GCMs are not currently capable of simulating past surface climate conditions with sufficiently detailed spatial resolution to distinguish areas of potential hominin habitat, however. In this paper, we propose a statistical downscaling method (SDM) for increasing the resolution of climate model outputs in a computationally efficient way. Our method uses a generalised additive model (GAM), calibrated over present-day climatology data, to statistically downscale temperature and precipitation time series from the outputs of a GCM simulating the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (19 000–23 000 BP) over western Europe. Once the SDM is calibrated, we first interpolate the coarse-scale GCM outputs to the final resolution and then use the GAM to compute surface air temperature and precipitation levels using these interpolated GCM outputs and fine-resolution geographical variables such as topography and distance from an ocean. The GAM acts as a transfer function, capturing non-linear relationships between variables at different spatial scales and correcting for the GCM biases. We tested three different techniques for the first interpolation of GCM output: bilinear, bicubic and kriging. The resulting SDMs were evaluated by comparing downscaled temperature and precipitation at local sites with paleoclimate reconstructions based on paleoclimate archives (archaeozoological and palynological data) and the impact of the interpolation technique on patterns of variability was explored. The SDM based on kriging interpolation, providing the best accuracy, was then validated on present-day data outside of the calibration period. Our results show that the downscaled temperature and precipitation values are in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions at local sites, and that our method for producing fine-grained paleoclimate simulations is therefore suitable for conducting paleo-anthropological research. It is nonetheless important to calibrate the GAM on a range of data encompassing the data to be downscaled. Otherwise, the SDM is likely to overcorrect the coarse-grain data. In addition, the bilinear and bicubic interpolation techniques were shown to distort either the temporal variability or the values of the response variables, while the kriging method offered the best compromise. Since climate variability is an aspect of the environment to which human populations may have responded in the past, the choice of interpolation technique is therefore an important consideration.

scholarly journals How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Ramstein ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
H. Wu ◽  
C. Hély ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Data Comparison ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Winter Cooling ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum has been one of the first foci of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). During its first phase, the results of 17 atmosphere general circulation models were compared to paleoclimate reconstructions. One of the largest discrepancies in the simulations was the systematic underestimation, by at least 10°C, of the winter cooling over Europe and the Mediterranean region observed in the pollen-based reconstructions. In this paper, we investigate the progress achieved to reduce this inconsistency through a large modelling effort and improved temperature reconstructions. We show that increased model spatial resolution does not significantly increase the simulated LGM winter cooling. Further, neither the inclusion of a vegetation cover compatible with the LGM climate, nor the interactions with the oceans simulated by the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models run in the second phase of PMIP result in a better agreement between models and data. Accounting for changes in interannual variability in the interpretation of the pollen data does not result in a reduction of the reconstructed cooling. The largest recent improvement in the model-data comparison has instead arisen from a new climate reconstruction based on inverse vegetation modelling, which explicitly accounts for the CO2 decrease at LGM and which substantially reduces the LGM winter cooling reconstructed from pollen assemblages. As a result, the simulated and observed LGM winter cooling over Western Europe and the Mediterranean area are now in much better agreement.

scholarly journals Ice-sheet mass balance during the last glacial maximum

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 145-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adeline Fabre ◽  
Sophie Pinot ◽  
Catherine Ritz ◽  
Sylvie Joussaume
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

In the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have- been performed. More than 10 different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) have been used with the same boundary conditions: sea-surface temperatures prescribed by CLIMAP (1981), ice-sheet reconstruction provided by Peltier (1994), change in insolation, and reduced CO2 content. One of the major questions is to investigate whether the simulations of the LGM are in equilibrium with the prescribed ice-sheet reconstruction. To answer this question, we have used two different approaches. First, we analyze the results of a sel of LGM simulations performed with different versions of the Laboratoire de Meteorolo-gie Dynamique (LMD) AGCM and study the hydrologic and snow- budgets over the Laurcntide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. Second, we use the AGCM outputs to force an ice-sheet model in order to investigate its ability to maintain the ice sheets as reconstructed by CLIMAP (1981) or Peltier (1994).

scholarly journals Ice-sheet mass balance during the last glacial maximum

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 145-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adeline Fabre ◽  
Sophie Pinot ◽  
Catherine Ritz ◽  
Sylvie Joussaume
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

In the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have- been performed. More than 10 different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) have been used with the same boundary conditions: sea-surface temperatures prescribed by CLIMAP (1981), ice-sheet reconstruction provided by Peltier (1994), change in insolation, and reduced CO2 content. One of the major questions is to investigate whether the simulations of the LGM are in equilibrium with the prescribed ice-sheet reconstruction. To answer this question, we have used two different approaches. First, we analyze the results of a sel of LGM simulations performed with different versions of the Laboratoire de Meteorolo-gie Dynamique (LMD) AGCM and study the hydrologic and snow- budgets over the Laurcntide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. Second, we use the AGCM outputs to force an ice-sheet model in order to investigate its ability to maintain the ice sheets as reconstructed by CLIMAP (1981) or Peltier (1994).

scholarly journals How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthesis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Ramstein ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
H. Wu ◽  
C. Hély ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Data Comparison ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Winter Cooling ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum has been one of the first foci of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). During its first phase, the results of 17 atmosphere general circulation models were compared to paleoclimate reconstructions. One of the largest discrepancies in the simulations was the systematic underestimation, by at least 10°C, of the winter cooling over Europe and the Mediterranean region observed in the pollen-based reconstructions. In this paper, we investigate the progress achieved to reduce this inconsistency through a large modelling effort and improved temperature reconstructions. We show that increased model spatial resolution does not significantly increase the simulated LGM winter cooling. Further, neither the inclusion of a vegetation cover compatible with the LGM climate, nor the interactions with the oceans simulated by the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models run in the second phase of PMIP result in a better agreement between models and data. Accounting for changes in interannual variability in the interpretation of the pollen data does not result in a reduction of the reconstructed cooling. The largest recent improvement in the model-data comparison has instead arisen from a new climate reconstruction based on inverse vegetation modelling, which explicitly accounts for the CO2 decrease at LGM and which substantially reduces the LGM winter cooling reconstructed from pollen assemblages. As a result, the simulated and observed LGM winter cooling over Western Europe and the Mediterranean area are now in much better agreement.

scholarly journals Dynamic soil feedbacks on the climate of the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 2717-2770 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Stärz ◽  
G. Lohmann ◽  
G. Knorr
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Positive Feedbacks ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. State-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) are tested and challenged by the ability to reproduce paleoclimate key intervals. In order to account for climate changes associated with soil dynamics we have developed a soil scheme, which is asynchronously coupled to a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean GCM with dynamic vegetation. We test the scheme for conditions representative of a warmer (mid-Holocene, 6 kyr before present, BP) and colder (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 kyr BP) than pre-industrial climate. The computed change of physical soil properties (i.e. albedo, water storage capacity, and soil texture) for these different climates leads to amplified global climate anomalies. Especially regions like the transition zone of desert/savannah and taiga/tundra, exhibit an increased response as a result of the modified soil treatment. In comparison to earlier studies, the inclusion of the soil feedback pushes our model simulations towards the warmer end in the range of mid-Holocene studies and beyond current estimates of global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum based on PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2) studies. The main impact of the interactive soil scheme on the climate response is governed by positive feedbacks, including dynamics of vegetation, snow, sea ice, local water recycling, which might amplify forcing factors ranging from orbital to tectonic timescales.

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