scholarly journals Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise J. Slater ◽  
Bailey Anderson ◽  
Marcus Buechel ◽  
Simon Dadson ◽  
Shasha Han ◽  
...  

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind/storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics and methods for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 3897-3935
Author(s):  
Louise J. Slater ◽  
Bailey Anderson ◽  
Marcus Buechel ◽  
Simon Dadson ◽  
Shasha Han ◽  
...  

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics, and methods for the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.


2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Scott Neal Reilly ◽  
John Bachman ◽  
Karen A. Harper ◽  
Stephen Marotta ◽  
Jonathan Pfautz

Author(s):  
Prateek Nalwaya ◽  
Gregory Oxenham ◽  
Luke McGeoch ◽  
Philippa Clery ◽  
Emma Sewart ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mizanur Rahman ◽  
Ankur Sarker ◽  
Haiying Shen ◽  
Mashrur Chowdhury ◽  
Kakan Dey ◽  
...  

Information-aware connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) have drawn great attention in recent years due to their potentially significant positive impacts on roadway safety and operational efficiency. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth review of three basic and key interrelated aspects of a CAV: sensing and communication technologies; human factors; and information-aware controller design. First, the different vehicular sensing and communication technologies and their protocol stacks, to provide reliable information to the information-aware CAV controller, are thoroughly discussed. Diverse human factors, such as user comfort, preferences, and reliability, to design the CAV systems for mass adaptation are also discussed. Then, the different layers of a CAV controller (route planning, driving mode execution, and driving model selection) considering human factors and information through connectivity are reviewed. In addition, the critical challenges for the sensing and communication technologies, human factors, and information-aware controller are identified to support the design of a safe and efficient CAV system while considering user acceptance and comfort. Finally, the promising future research directions of these three aspects are discussed to overcome existing challenges to realize a safe and operationally efficient CAV.


Author(s):  
Jacqueline Bennion ◽  
Stephanie K Mansell

Failure to recognise the deteriorating patient can cause severe harm and is related to preventable death. Human factors are often identified as contributing factors. Simulation-based education is used to develop clinicians' human factors skills. This article discusses the evidence concerning the efficacy of simulation-based education for improving the recognition and management of the acutely deteriorating adult patient, and the limitations of simulation-based education. Findings demonstrated simulation-based education was the most effective educational method identified for training staff in recognising unwell patients. The evidence demonstrating the impact of simulation-based education on patient outcomes was equivocal. The quality of the evidence was low grade regarding the efficacy of simulation-based education on human factors. Further research is required to confirm the efficacy of simulation-based education for human factors and patient outcomes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-12
Author(s):  
Catherine A McIntosh ◽  
David Donnelly ◽  
Robert Marr

IntroductionCognitive aids, such as a guideline for the management of severe local anaesthetic (LA) toxicity, are tools designed to help users complete a task. Human factors experts recommend the use of simulation to iteratively test and re-design these tools. The purpose of this study was to apply human factors engineering principles to the testing and iterative re-design of three existing cognitive aids used for the management of severe LA toxicity and to use these data to develop a ‘new’ cognitive aid.MethodsTwenty anaesthetist–anaesthetic assistant pairs were randomised into four groups. Each of the first three groups received one of three different existing cognitive aids during a standardised simulated LA toxicity crisis. Postsimulation semistructured interviews were conducted to identify features beneficial and detrimental to the format and usability of the aid. Synthesis of the interview data with established checklist design recommendations resulted in a prototype aid, which was subjected to further testing and re-design by the fourth group (five more pairs) under the same conditions thus creating the final iteration of the new aid.ResultsFeatures of the new aid included a single-stream flowchart structure, single-sided, large-font design with colour contrast, simplified instructions and no need for calculations. This simplified tool contains only the information users reported as essential for the immediate crisis management.ConclusionsUtilisation of formative usability testing and simulation-based user-centred design resulted in a visually very different cognitive aid and reinforces the importance of designing aids in the context in which they are to be used. Simplified tools may be more appropriate for use in emergencies but more detailed guidelines may be necessary for training, education and development of local standard operating procedures. Iterative simulation-based testing and re-design is likely to be of assistance when developing aids for other crises, and to eliminate design failure as a confounder when investigating the relationship between use of cognitive aids and performance.


2020 ◽  
Vol 134 (5) ◽  
pp. 415-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Bannon ◽  
K E Stewart ◽  
M Bannister

AbstractObjectivesThis study aimed to assess the published literature on non-technical skills in otolaryngology surgery and examine the applicability of any research to others’ practice, and to explore how the published literature can identify areas for further development and guide future research.MethodsA systematic review was conducted using the following key words: ‘otolaryngology’, ‘otorhinolaryngology’, ‘ENT’, ‘ENT surgery’, ‘ear, nose and throat surgery’, ‘head and neck surgery’, ‘thyroid surgery’, ‘parathyroid surgery’, ‘otology’, ‘rhinology’, ‘laryngology’ ‘skull base surgery’, ‘airway surgery’, ‘non-technical skills’, ‘non technical skills for surgeons’, ‘NOTSS’, ‘behavioural markers’ and ‘behavioural assessment tool’.ResultsThree publications were included in the review – 1 randomised, controlled trial and 2 cohort studies – involving 78 participants. All were simulation-based studies involving training otolaryngology surgeons.ConclusionLittle research has been undertaken on non-technical skills in otolaryngology. Training surgeons’ non-technical skill levels are similar across every tested aspect. The research already performed can guide further studies, particularly amongst non-training otolaryngology surgeons and in both emergency and elective non-simulated environments.


2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Secombe ◽  
R. Sutherland ◽  
R. Johnson

Adequate cardiopulmonary resuscitation is an important predictor of survival, however, obesity provides a significant physical barrier to thoracic compressions. This study explores the effect of morbid obesity on compression adequacy. We performed a prospective randomised controlled crossover study, assessing the adequacy of thoracic compressions on a manikin modified to emulate a morbidly obese patient. Participants recruited from critical care departments were randomised to perform continuous compressions for two minutes on each manikin. Accelerometers were used to measure thoracic wall movement. The primary endpoint was a composite measure of compression adequacy (rate, depth and recoil). Secondary endpoints were the individual components of the composite outcome and measures of perceived effectiveness, fatigue, and pain. One hundred and one participants were recruited. There was a significant difference between the obese and control groups in the composite endpoint (4% versus 30%, P <0.001), as well as the individual components of adequacy (P <0.01 for all). Quartile data showed significant deterioration in adequacy of depth and recoil in both groups, and this occurred significantly earlier in the obese group (P ≤0.001). Participants’ perception of effectiveness was significantly lower (P ≤0.001) in the obese group, and levels of fatigue (P ≤0.001) and pain (P ≤0.001) significantly higher. Morbid obesity impairs the adequacy of thoracic compressions for trained rescuers in a simulation-based model. Participants were not fully aware of how ineffective compressions were. There is evidence of earlier fatigue further reducing effectiveness. These findings have significant implications for the training of rescuers in a clinically relevant population and the planning of future research.


2008 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-542
Author(s):  
Jeremy Rickards

Human Factors Engineering is an interdisciplinary science concerned with the effect of work on the human body and its relationship to the workplace. Since the 1970s, UNB – Forest Engineering has been a major contributor to teaching and research in this discipline, and in its application to forest operations. Rapid advances in mechanized tree-harvesting systems resulted in significant new workplace issues for operator health, safety, and machine design. Researchers responded by creating a CSA standard, working cooperatively with FERIC, CPPA and more recently the CWF, and founding the International Journal of Forest Engineering, which is a unique source for research results and developments in this discipline. Future research will involve multi-national teams of Human Factors Engineers, supported by related disciplines in healthcare and engineering. Key words: human factors, forest engineering, workplace health, workplace safety, mechanized forest operations


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srivathsan Ravindran ◽  
Siwan Thomas-Gibson ◽  
Sam Murray ◽  
Eleanor Wood

Patient safety incidents occur throughout healthcare and early reports have exposed how deficiencies in ‘human factors’ have contributed to mortality in endoscopy. Recognising this, in the UK, the Joint Advisory Group for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy have implemented a number of initiatives including the ‘Improving Safety and Reducing Error in Endoscopy’ (ISREE) strategy. Within this, simulation training in human factors and Endoscopic Non-Technical Skills (ENTS) is being developed. Across healthcare, simulation training has been shown to improve team skills and patient outcomes. Although the literature is sparse, integrated and in situ simulation modalities have shown promise in endoscopy. Outcomes demonstrate improved individual and team performance and development of skills that aid clinical practice. Additionally, the use of simulation training to detect latent errors in the working environment is of significant value in reducing error and preventing harm. Implementation of simulation training at local and regional levels can be successfully achieved with collaboration between organisational, educational and clinical leads. Nationally, simulation strategies are a key aspect of the ISREE strategy to improve ENTS training. These may include integration of simulation into current training or development of novel simulation-based curricula. However used, it is evident that simulation training is an important tool in developing safer endoscopy.


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