scholarly journals Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6297-6321 ◽  
Author(s):  
René Reijer Wijngaard ◽  
Hester Biemans ◽  
Arthur Friedrich Lutz ◽  
Arun Bhakta Shrestha ◽  
Philippus Wester ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Asian Water

Abstract. The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes. These river basins are marked as “climate change hotspots”, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth as well as strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the future “blue” water gap in the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric–hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand. We force the coupled models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in the water availability, supply, demand, and gap. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap. The transgression of future environmental flows will likely be limited, with sustained environmental flow requirements during the monsoon season and unmet environmental flow requirements during the low-flow season in the Indus and Ganges river basins.

scholarly journals Climate change vs. socio-economic development: Understanding the future South-Asian water gap

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
René R. Wijngaard ◽  
Hester Biemans ◽  
Arthur F. Lutz ◽  
Arun B. Shrestha ◽  
Philippus Wester ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Asian Water

Abstract. The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes. These river basins are marked as climate change hotspot, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth, and strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on future blue water scarcity for the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric-hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand. We force the models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in water availability, supply, demand, and scarcity. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap.

scholarly journals Participatory Modelling of Surface and Groundwater to Support Strategic Planning in the Ganga Basin in India

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnix van der Vat ◽  
Pascal Boderie ◽  
Kees Bons ◽  
Mark Hegnauer ◽  
Gerrit Hendriksen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Ganga Basin ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface And Groundwater

The Ganga Basin in India experiences problems related to water availability, water quality and ecological degradation because of over-abstraction of surface and groundwater, the presence of various hydraulic infrastructure, discharge of untreated sewage water, and other point and non-point source pollution. The basin is experiencing rapid socio-economic development that will increase both the demand for water and pollution load. Climate change adds to the uncertainty and future variability of water availability. To support strategic planning for the Ganga Basin by the Indian Ministry of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation and the governments of the concerned Indian states, a river basin model was developed that integrates hydrology, geohydrology, water resources management, water quality and ecology. The model was developed with the involvement of key basin stakeholders across central and state governments. No previous models of the Ganga Basin integrate all these aspects, and this is the first time that a participatory approach was applied for the development of a Ganga Basin model. The model was applied to assess the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios and management strategies. The results suggest that the impact of socio-economic development will far exceed the impacts of climate change. To balance the use of surface and groundwater to support sustained economic growth and an ecologically healthy river, it is necessary to combine investments in wastewater treatment and reservoir capacity with interventions that reduce water demand, especially for irrigation, and that increase dry season river flow. An important option for further investigation is the greater use of alluvial aquifers for temporary water storage.

scholarly journals Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 791-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Yin ◽  
Qiuhong Tang ◽  
Xingcai Liu ◽  
Xuejun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Water Withdrawals

Abstract. Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2–11 % reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 12691-12727 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Lutz ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
A. Gobiet ◽  
F. Pellicciotti ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Future ◽  
Syr Darya

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier) melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale) hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier extent and downstream water availability uncertain.

On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
N.E. Terentiev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

Climate change assessment impacts on the coastal area of Maliakos Gulf, Greece

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1235-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mentzafou ◽  
A. Conides ◽  
E. Dimitriou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Wetland Loss ◽  
Mitigation Planning ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Adaptation And Mitigation

Abstract Coastal ecosystems are linked to socio-economic development, but simultaneously, are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Within this scope, detailed topographic data resources of Spercheios River and Maliakos Gulf coastal area in Greece, combined with information concerning the economic value of the most important sectors of the area (wetland services, land property, infrastructure, income) were employed, so as to examine the impacts of three SLR scenarios, compiled based on the most recent regional projections reviewed. Based on the results, in the case of 0.3 m, 0.6 m and 1.0 m SLR, the terrestrial zone to be lost was estimated to be 6.2 km2, 18.9 km2 and 31.1 km2, respectively. For each scenario examined, wetlands comprise 68%, 41% and 39% of the total area lost, respectively, reflecting their sensitivity to even small SLR. The total economic impact of SLR was estimated to be 75.4 × 106 €, 161.7 × 106 € and 510.7 × 106 € for each scenario, respectively (3.5%, 7.5% and 23.7% of the gross domestic product of the area), 19%, 17% and 8% of which can be attributed to wetland loss. The consequences of SLR to the ecosystem services provided are indisputable, while adaptation and mitigation planning is required.

ROLE OF THE TOURIST SECTOR IN THE STRATEGY OF DIVERSIFICATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF STAVROPOL KRAI

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
A. N. KRIVENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stavropol Krai

Tourism is considered a strategic direction for the economic development of the region. The role it plays in creating the image and reputation of the region also affects the fate of other sectors of the economy. The tourism industry is constantly growing and represents the main source of income now and in the future for many countries and territories with a tourism vocation.

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