Socio-economic development, not climate change, the main driver of the future water gap in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
ICIMOD HI-AWARE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Main Driver

scholarly journals Climate change vs. socio-economic development: Understanding the future South-Asian water gap

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
René R. Wijngaard ◽  
Hester Biemans ◽  
Arthur F. Lutz ◽  
Arun B. Shrestha ◽  
Philippus Wester ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Asian Water

Abstract. The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes. These river basins are marked as climate change hotspot, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth, and strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on future blue water scarcity for the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric-hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand. We force the models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in water availability, supply, demand, and scarcity. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap.

scholarly journals Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6297-6321 ◽  
Author(s):  
René Reijer Wijngaard ◽  
Hester Biemans ◽  
Arthur Friedrich Lutz ◽  
Arun Bhakta Shrestha ◽  
Philippus Wester ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Asian Water

Abstract. The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes. These river basins are marked as “climate change hotspots”, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth as well as strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the future “blue” water gap in the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric–hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand. We force the coupled models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in the water availability, supply, demand, and gap. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap. The transgression of future environmental flows will likely be limited, with sustained environmental flow requirements during the monsoon season and unmet environmental flow requirements during the low-flow season in the Indus and Ganges river basins.

On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
N.E. Terentiev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

Climate change assessment impacts on the coastal area of Maliakos Gulf, Greece

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1235-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mentzafou ◽  
A. Conides ◽  
E. Dimitriou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Wetland Loss ◽  
Mitigation Planning ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Adaptation And Mitigation

Abstract Coastal ecosystems are linked to socio-economic development, but simultaneously, are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Within this scope, detailed topographic data resources of Spercheios River and Maliakos Gulf coastal area in Greece, combined with information concerning the economic value of the most important sectors of the area (wetland services, land property, infrastructure, income) were employed, so as to examine the impacts of three SLR scenarios, compiled based on the most recent regional projections reviewed. Based on the results, in the case of 0.3 m, 0.6 m and 1.0 m SLR, the terrestrial zone to be lost was estimated to be 6.2 km2, 18.9 km2 and 31.1 km2, respectively. For each scenario examined, wetlands comprise 68%, 41% and 39% of the total area lost, respectively, reflecting their sensitivity to even small SLR. The total economic impact of SLR was estimated to be 75.4 × 106 €, 161.7 × 106 € and 510.7 × 106 € for each scenario, respectively (3.5%, 7.5% and 23.7% of the gross domestic product of the area), 19%, 17% and 8% of which can be attributed to wetland loss. The consequences of SLR to the ecosystem services provided are indisputable, while adaptation and mitigation planning is required.

ROLE OF THE TOURIST SECTOR IN THE STRATEGY OF DIVERSIFICATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF STAVROPOL KRAI

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
A. N. KRIVENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stavropol Krai

Tourism is considered a strategic direction for the economic development of the region. The role it plays in creating the image and reputation of the region also affects the fate of other sectors of the economy. The tourism industry is constantly growing and represents the main source of income now and in the future for many countries and territories with a tourism vocation.

ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTIVATOR OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
Liana E. Kabisova ◽  
◽  
Noemi A. Mardeyan ◽  
Zarina E. Tarkhanova ◽  
Batraz E. Bagaev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Direction Vector ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency

The article identifies the key factors influencing the activity of the socio-economic development of the region. The dynamics of this factor is analyzed. The indicator is investigated for the sufficiency and validity of the application, as well as for the effectiveness and efficiency with the designation of the direction vector, forecast, assessment for the future use of this leverage, to improve the economic situation at the regional level.

Energy, Environment and Socio-Economic Development

2012 ◽  
pp. 226-242
Author(s):  
Divine Odame Appiah ◽  
Francis Kemausuor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Energy Environment ◽  
Sub Saharan

This chapter espouses the spatial relationships between energy, environment and socio-economic development, as some of the main challenges African countries are grappling with. Energy is the main driver of all forms of socio-economic activities occurring within the human space over time. In Africa, however, low access to energy has, to a greater extent, hampered the socio-economic development of the continent. Although the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) do not specifically stipulate on any energy target, the realization of all the goals stands threatened if households, commercial and industrial activities do not get the rightful access in terms of availability and affordability to energy systems, including their appropriate conversion technologies. The authors explore the dynamics of energy, socio-economic development and environmental sustainability in a nexus of the triple challenges facing Africa, from different African scenarios. In Africa, the obstacles opposing the continent’s bid to expand the energy frontiers from the traditional sources of wood and fossil fuels into other second and third generation energy forms have been constructed in the areas of intense competition for arable lands for food crops and feed stocks cultivation. Suffice to say that increasing population densities, food shortages and insecurity and malnutrition with associated diseases have culminated into acute forms of poverty in recent years in Africa; the problems have been aggravated by the wanton degradation of the environmental resource base and the over-dependence of particular energy mix at both the rural and the urban settings. The above disposition therefore, militates greatly against the socio-economic efforts of most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. From a systemic perspective, the energy sector which drives almost every sub-sector of the broader socio-economic activity needs to factor the environmental consequences of extraction and use, with the attending impacts of climate variability and change in a vicious cycle of sustainability.

scholarly journals Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 797-813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez ◽  
Rhys Manners ◽  
Consuelo Varela-Ortega ◽  
Ana M. Tarquis ◽  
Lucieta G. Martorano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Environmental Conservation ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
New Type

Abstract. The Amazon basin is the world's largest rainforest and the most biologically diverse place on Earth. Despite the critical importance of this region, Amazon forests continue inexorably to be degraded and deforested for various reasons, mainly a consequence of agricultural expansion. The development of novel policy strategies that provide balanced solutions, associating economic growth with environmental protection, is still challenging, largely because the perspective of those most affected – local stakeholders – is often ignored. Participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was implemented to examine stakeholder perceptions towards the sustainable development of two agricultural-forest frontier areas in the Bolivian and Brazilian Amazon. A series of development scenarios were explored and applied to stakeholder-derived FCM, with climate change also analysed. Stakeholders in both regions perceived landscapes of socio-economic impoverishment and environmental degradation driven by governmental and institutional deficiencies. Under such abject conditions, governance and well-integrated social and technological strategies offered socio-economic development, environmental conservation, and resilience to climatic changes. The results suggest there are benefits of a new type of thinking for development strategies in the Amazon basin and that continued application of traditional development policies reduces the resilience of the Amazon to climate change, whilst limiting socio-economic development and environmental conservation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document