scholarly journals Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: new developments

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 2791-2815
Author(s):  
Christian Onof ◽  
Li-Pen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Model Fitting ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
New Developments ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Poisson Cluster ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Structure Properties

Abstract. The use of Poisson cluster processes to model rainfall time series at a range of scales now has a history of more than 30 years. Among them, the randomised (also called modified) Bartlett–Lewis model (RBL1) is particularly popular, while a refinement of this model was proposed recently (RBL2; Kaczmarska et al., 2014). Fitting such models essentially relies upon minimising the difference between theoretical statistics of the rainfall signal and their observed estimates. The first statistics are obtained using closed form analytical expressions for statistics of the orders 1 to 3 of the rainfall depths, as well as useful approximations of the wet–dry structure properties. The second are standard estimates of these statistics for each month of the data. This paper discusses two issues that are important for the optimal model fitting of RBL1 and RBL2. The first issue is that, when revisiting the derivation of the analytical expressions for the rainfall depth moments, it appears that the space of possible parameters is wider than has been assumed in past papers. The second issue is that care must be exerted in the way monthly statistics are estimated from the data. The impact of these two issues upon both models, in particular upon the estimation of extreme rainfall depths at hourly and sub-hourly timescales, is examined using 69 years of 5 min and 105 years of 10 min rainfall data from Bochum (Germany) and Uccle (Belgium), respectively.

scholarly journals Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: New developments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Onof ◽  
Li-Pen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Model Fitting ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
New Developments ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Poisson Cluster ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Structure Properties

Abstract. The use of Poisson-cluster processes to model rainfall time series at a range of scales now has a history of more than 30 years. Among them, the Randomised (also called modified) Bartlett–Lewis model (RBL1) is particularly popular, while a refinement of this model was proposed recently (RBL2) (Kaczmarska et al., 2014). Fitting such models essentially relies upon minimising the difference between theoretical statistics of the rainfall signal and their observed estimates. The first are obtained using closed form analytical expressions for statistics of order 1 to 3 of the rainfall depths, as well as useful approximations of the wet-dry structure properties. The second are standard estimates of these statistics for each month of the data. This paper discusses two issues that are important for optimal model fitting of the RBL1 and RBL2. The first is that, when revisiting the derivation of the analytical expressions for the rainfall depth moments, it appears that the space of possible parameters is wider than has been assumed in the past papers. The second is that care must be exerted in the way monthly statistics are estimated from the data. The impact of these two issues upon both models, in particular upon the estimation of extreme rainfall depths at hourly and sub-hourly timescales is examined using 69 years of 5-min and 105 years of 10-min rainfall data from Bochum (Germany) and Uccle (Belgium), respectively.

P007 CROHN’S DISEASE: PREDICTORS OF HOSPITAL DISPOSITION AND COSTS USING DEMOGRAPHIC, CLINICAL, AND TREATMENT DATA

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S48-S48
Author(s):  
Hartman Brunt ◽  
Mason Adams ◽  
Michael Barker ◽  
Diana Hamer ◽  
J C Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Crohn’S Disease ◽  
Abdominal Pain ◽  
Crohn's Disease ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Charges

Abstract Purpose Crohn’s disease (CD) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) caused by an abnormal immune response to intestinal microbes in a genetically susceptible host. The objective of this cohort analysis is to compare demographic characteristics, cost difference, and treatment modalities between patients who were discharged from the Emergency Department (ED) and those who were admitted to the hospital. Methods This study is a retrospective chart review of adult patients diagnosed with CD who were discharged from the ED and those who were admitted to the hospital between January 1, 2014 and January 1, 2017. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics as well as total charges incurred by these patients. A chi square test of independence and a Mann Whitney U-Test were used to compare categorical variables. Linear and logistic regression analyses were utilized to identify predictors of hospitalization and total charges. Results Of a total 195 patients, 97 were discharged from the ED and 98 were admitted to the hospital (Table 1). Patients who presented with fever, nausea/vomiting, or abdominal pain or who had a history of a fistula or stenosis were more likely to be hospitalized, as were patients who presented on steroids, 5-ASA compounds, or narcotics (Table 2). A logistic regression adjusted for these factors showed patients presenting with abdominal pain (OR=0.239, 95% CI 0.07 – 0.77) are less likely, while patients presenting with fever (OR=7.0, 95% CI 1.9 – 24.5) and history of stenosis (OR=17.8, 95% CI 5.7 – 55.9) are more likely to have a hospital admission. An increase in age and white blood cell count was associated with an increase in likelihood of admission (OR=1.04, 95% CI 1.01 – 1.07 and OR=1.2, 95% CI 1.1 – 1.4), while an increase in HGB was associated with a decrease in likelihood of admission (OR=0.682, 95% CI 0.55 – 0.83). Patients on 5-ASA compounds had the strongest association with hospital admission (OR=4.5, 95% CI 1.03 – 20.4). A linear regression analysis predicting total charges of hospitalization identified an increase of $37,500 (95% CI 6,600 – 68,489) for obese patients and of $29,000 (95% CI 20 – 57,000) for patients on narcotics prior to hospitalization. Notably, blacks were on average 6 years younger than whites (μ=36.2, st.d.=13.2 v μ=42.7, st.d.=18.2, p=0.031, respectively). No other differences in presentation or outcomes of CD were identified between these races. Conclusion This study describes the difference between CD patients who were admitted to the hospital compared to those who were discharged from the ED. The impact that 5-ASA compound, steroid, and narcotic use prior to presentation has on hospital admission and charges highlights the need for consistent outpatient care to manage the symptoms and disease progression in patients with CD in Baton Rouge. The difference in age at presentation between blacks and whites should also be considered in future research.

Prevalence of ADHD in children born by mothers consuming Frankincense during pregnancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alimohammad Ranjbar ◽  
Elahe Kamali Ardakani ◽  
Rahele Zareshahi
Keyword(s):  
Data Gathering ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Case Group ◽  
Dsm V ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Positive Effect

Aims: In Iranian culture, due to some narratives from the prophet Mohammad about the use of frankincense during pregnancy for increasing IQ in children, some women consume frankincense during expectancy. This study's goal is to evaluate the relationship between frankincense used during pregnancy and the incidence of ADHD. Methods: In this study, the case group comprised children 4-17 years old referring to Shahid Chamran Pharmacy in Yazd from summer to winter 2018 for receiving Methylphenidate, those with whom a psychologist had identified ADHD based on DSM-V factors.  The control group included children of the same age group but without ADHD. For data gathering, a checklist was used with some questions on smoking, family history of ADHD, presence/absence of a specific disease during pregnancy, frankincense used during pregnancy, and a chemical medication consumed during pregnancy. Results: The main result demonstrated that the children whose mothers used frankincense during pregnancy were 0.67 times less likely to be affected by ADHD than those whose mothers did not use this substance. However, the difference failed to be statistically significant (P>0.05). Conclusion: Some studies report that frankincense can bear a positive effect on the development of the brain and possibly adequate formation of dendrites trees, axons and induce proper communication between them, so the impact of frankincense on the brain may be justified by its protective effect against the hyperactive child.

scholarly journals Applications of percolation theory to fungal spread with synergy

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (70) ◽  
pp. 949-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Ludlam ◽  
Gavin J. Gibson ◽  
Wilfred Otten ◽  
Christopher A. Gilligan
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Synergistic Interactions ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
History Of ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Strict Requirement ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

There is increasing interest in the use of the percolation paradigm to analyse and predict the progress of disease spreading in spatially structured populations of animals and plants. The wider utility of the approach has been limited, however, by several restrictive assumptions, foremost of which is a strict requirement for simple nearest-neighbour transmission, in which the disease history of an individual is influenced only by that of its neighbours. In a recent paper, the percolation paradigm has been generalized to incorporate synergistic interactions in host infectivity and susceptibility, and the impact of these interactions on the invasive dynamics of an epidemic has been demonstrated. In the current paper, we elicit evidence that such synergistic interactions may underlie transmission dynamics in real-world systems by first formulating a model for the spread of a ubiquitous parasitic and saprotrophic fungus through replicated populations of nutrient sites and subsequently fitting and testing the model using data from experimental microcosms. Using Bayesian computational methods for model fitting, we demonstrate that synergistic interactions are necessary to explain the dynamics observed in the replicate experiments. The broader implications of this work in identifying disease-control strategies that deflect epidemics from invasive to non-invasive regimes are discussed.

Nationwide analysis: Changes in the natural history of low risk localized prostate cancer.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 12-12
Author(s):  
John Thomas Helgstrand ◽  
Nina Klemann ◽  
Birgitte Grønkaer Toft ◽  
Ben Vainer ◽  
Martin Andreas Røder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Specific Antigen ◽  
Tumor Burden ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Stage Migration ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

12 Background: Increased use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has introduced an increase in PCa incidence and a lead time and stage migration at diagnosis, altering the natural history of PCa. Contemporary PCa patients are likely younger and have smaller tumor burden at diagnosis. We investigated if changes in the PCa landscape have altered the course of low-risk localized PCa. Methods: In the Danish Prostate Cancer Registry (DaPCaR), patients diagnosed from 1995 to 2011 with localized (T1-2, N0/X, M0) PCa with Gleason score ≤ 6 were identified. Patients were stratified into three periods of diagnosis; 1995-2000 (period 1), 2001-2005 (period 2) and 2006-2011 (period 3). Competing risk analysis treating PCa and other-cause death as competing events was performed. Results: Of the 5,660 patients identified, 35.9% had undergone radical prostatectomy (RP). From period 1 to period 3, the median age at diagnosis decreased from 72.2 to 66.0 years and the median PSA decreased from 16.2 to 8.6 ng/mL. From period 1 to period 3, the 5-year risk of PCa-death decreased from 14.3% (95% CI: 12.1-16.4%) to 1.3% (95% CI: 0.83-1.7%), p < .0.0001 and the risk of other cause death decreased from 18.1% (95% CI: 15.8-20.5%) to 7.2% (95% CI: 6.2-8.2), p = 0.0001. In patients undergoing RP, the 5-year risk of PCa-death decreased from 0.67% (95% CI: 0.67-2.0%) for patients diagnosed in period 1 to 0.45% (95% CI: 0.0055-0.84), for patients diagnosed in period 3, p = 0.92. For patients not undergoing RP, the 5-year risk of PCa death decreased from 16.6% (95% CI: 14.1-19.1) to 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2-2.7%), p < 0.0001. Conclusions: In a nationwide cohort of patients with low risk localized PCa, the 5-year risk of PCa-death significantly decreased when comparing patients diagnosed during 2006-2011 to those diagnosed during 1995-2000. This was mainly driven by patients not undergoing RP. In the most recently diagnosed group, the difference in 5-year PCa-death between patients undergoing RP and not undergoing RP was small (0.45% vs. 2.0%). Our data demonstrate that the impact of PSA induced lead-time and stage migration has diminished the absolute effect of RP on the risk of 5-year PCa-death because contemporary low-risk localized patients have a significantly better prognosis.

Internet of Things-Based Healthcare Applications

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seema Ansari ◽  
Tahniyat Aslam ◽  
Javier Poncela ◽  
Pablo Otero ◽  
Adeel Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Internet Of Things ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Health Improvement ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
Healthcare Applications ◽  
Iot Applications ◽  
History Of ◽  
Healthcare Monitoring ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

The demand for global healthcare systems for human health improvement is ever growing. Internet of things (IoT) has influenced every industry in the market. IoT-based healthcare monitoring systems have emerged using smart gateways between sensor networks and the internet. This chapter aims at focusing on the impact of IoT on healthcare and explores the difference that IoT has made in the recent years. IoT applications in healthcare have helped people keep track of their medical requirements such as reminding them of appointments, keeping a check on calorie count, variations in blood pressure, a check on exercises, and many more. In this chapter, studies of IoT-based healthcare applications are presented. The chapter begins with the introduction and history of IoT in healthcare, sharing state of the art, architecture, applications of IoT in healthcare, advantages, future concerns and challenges, and future of IoT in healthcare, followed by conclusion.

scholarly journals TEKNIK KONSERVASI LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE KANOPI TANAMAN LABU SIAM (Sechium Edule) DI DESA SUMBER BRANTAS BATU MALANG

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-40
Author(s):  
Dyah Pitaloka ◽  
Talifatim M ◽  
Anggraeni Hadi P ◽  
Risfa Nurrohman ◽  
Evi Dwi Safitri
Keyword(s):  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Plant Leaves ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Closed Forest ◽  
Open Land ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Holding ◽  
Potential Land

Chayote (Sechiumedulesp) is gourd family (Cucurbiatea), this plant leaves tightly closed the planting area, grows on the ground or rather climbs, and is usually cultivated in the yard.Land conservation using the canopy cover method is one of the efforts made to save the environment.The change of land stretch from closed forest to open agricultural area and residential area in Tulungrejo Village, BumiadjiSubdistrict, Batu City is potential land degradation due to erosion caused by extreme rainfall due to the impact of climate change. This study aims to determine the difference in the amount of erosion caused by rain wateron open land and closed land conservation using the Chayote plant canopy.This research was conducted from September to December 2018. The research location was in Tulungrejo Village, BumiadjiBatu District, East Java.The study began by making a 1x1 m2 water-holding pot in an open areaand areas with canopy cover of Chayote plants.The treatment in this study was repeated three times, with 5 duration of rain each 15 minutes later. The treatments were E1 = 30, minutes, E2 = 45 minutes, E3 = 60 minutes, E4 = 75 minutes and E5 = 90 minutes. The results showed significantly different  at E5,the treatment of rain simulation for 90 minutes duration in an open area without canopy cover of the conjoined Chayote plant, the highest erosion reaches 121 kg / ha,while the area using land cover with canopy of Chayote plant statistic showed a significant difference in all treatments with the amount of erosion in the duration of 90 minutes 89 kg / ha.

scholarly journals Review: Pigin, A.V. & Andrianova, I.S. (Eds) (2019) Filologiya kak Prizvanie: Sbornik Statey k Yubileyu Professora Vladimira Nikolaevicha Zakharova [Philology as a Vocation: Collection of Articles to the Anniversary of Professor Vladimir Nikolaevich Zakharov]. Petrozavodsk: Petrozavodsk State University. 664 P.

2021 ◽  
pp. 171-181
Author(s):  
Andrei E. Kunilskiy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Russian Literature ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
State University ◽  
Old Russian ◽  
European Culture ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Made In

The review draws attention to a great contribution made by Professor Vladimir Zakharov to the study of the history of Russian literature, especially of Dostoevsky’s oeuvre. The longstanding and continuing research of Dostoevsky’s works made him deduce that Russian literature in whole was Christian with its particular evangelic text, Christian chronotope and general paschal, conciliar and salvational character. It is em-phasized that these pivotal concepts do not contradict the complexity (sometimes ambi-guity) of the nature of Russian literature and confirm the relevance of Pyotr Chaadaev’s call to recognize the impact of Christianity wherever and in whatever manner the hu-man thought touches upon it, even with the purpose of competing with it. The articles published in the collection prove the efficiency of Zakharov’s academic research. The articles cover various themes and attract a wide scope of materials, such as Old Russian literature and literature of the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries, as well as that of the Soviet period and Russian literature abroad. The review takes into consideration the originality and potential of a number of remarks made in the articles, and introduces some clarifi-cations and supplements. Special attention has been paid to the articles dedicated to Dostoevsky’s oeuvre and his relations with other authors. The review emphasizes that one must understand the difference of Dostoevsky from other writers. Thus, with regard to the use of the “poetics of paradox” by Dostoevsky and Osip Senkovsky (as stated in V.A. Koshelev’s article), it is asserted that the concept of paradox and the image of a paradoxer play a significant role in Dostoevsky’s reasoning, but not with the aim of brandishing his originality and pinpointing the comic and absurd character of objective reality. In Dostoevsky, ideas inconsistent with common notions yet comprising the truth turn out to be paradoxical. The review also draws attention to differences in the out-looks of Dostoevsky and Chekhov, thus entering into a debate with the researcher N.V. Prashcheruk regarding the spiritual kinship of the two great Russian writers. The review distinguishes the articles of V.A. Viktorovich, B.N. Tarasov, and B.N. Tikhomirov for the abundance of sources, accuracy and consistency of their key theses. The academic hypothesis stated by I.A. Esaulov about two cultural currents (European culture of Modern Times and Christian tradition) influencing the formation of Russian literature should be taken into account when creating the history of national literature that must capture the essence and character of its genesis correctly. The review states that articles on Old Russian literature (L.V. Sokolova, T.F. Volkova, A.V. Pigin) are characterized by a detailed study of the material and a broad philological background on the whole. Finally, the review states that the collection has again proved the diversity of Zakha-rov’s research interests, the potential of his ideas as well as his own beneficial role in the activity of Russian and international philological community.

History of world Indology in modern historiography

2020 ◽  
pp. 123-155
Author(s):  
Alexander Gordon ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Discipline ◽  
Scientific Process ◽  
Self Reflection ◽  
Indian History ◽  
The Road ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The reason for the article was «History of Indian History» by Leonid Alaev. The book poses several general theoretical questions about the importance of historiography as a «self-reflection» of historical science, the relationship between historical knowledge and historical consciousness. It focuses on the impact on the scientific process of political interests and the search for national identity, which determines the difference of individual national schools. The author of the book shows that for all the differences of the latter, the common logic of the scientific process, which is represented by the folding and evolution of Indology as a world scientific discipline, breaks through the road.

Comparing Physical and Cyber-Enhanced Dissection: An Analysis From Multiple Perspectives

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Grantham ◽  
Deborah Moore-Russo ◽  
Kemper Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Student Perceptions ◽  
Engineering Students ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Professional Preparation ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Instructional Tools ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Product dissection has evolved into a versatile pedagogical platform useful across the engineering curriculum. With the advent of digital, cyber, haptic, virtual, and immersive technologies, the opportunities to implement product dissection as an instructional tool increase dramatically. However, the effectiveness of cyber-enhanced dissection must be studied and the advantages and limitations of each type of platform must be understood in the context of achieving educational outcomes. In this paper, we first outline the history of dissection and carefully delineate the difference between physical, virtual, and cyber-enhanced dissection. We then study the impact of variations of cyber-enhanced (a blend of physical and virtual) dissection across two populations of sophomore engineering students at two universities using a number of exercises and data collection methods. We report on student perceptions regarding the affordances and disadvantages of physical vs. cyber-enhanced dissection. Students perceived the cyber-enhanced dissection exercises to be relevant to the students’ own professional preparation, to facilitate easier dissemination, to better align with emerging industrial practices, and to provide unique experiences not available in other courses the students had taken. Some potential drawbacks of cyber-enhanced dissection were also reported by students, including technology distracting them from the core educational objectives and overreliance on historical data of unknown origin. Although there are important tradeoffs between physical and cyber-enhanced dissection that need to be considered, using a blend of physical and virtual instructional tools may provide an effective platform to teach a wide range of engineering concepts across a curriculum.

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