scholarly journals Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study for Fuzhou city, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 7475-7505 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Lian ◽  
K. Xu ◽  
C. Ma

Abstract. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under the combined effect of multivariable variables, such as heavy rainfall, high sea level and large waves. For better assessment and management of flood risk the combined effect and joint probability should be considered. This paper aims to study the joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk by estimating the combined risk degree of flood and the joint flood probability. The area of case study is a typical coastal city in China, which has a complex river system. The flood in this city is mainly caused by inundation of river system. In this paper, the combined risk degree of flood is assessed by analyzing the behavior of the complex river network of the city under the combined effect of rainfall and tidal level with diverse return periods. The hydraulic model of the complex drainage network is established using HEC-RAS and verified by comparing the simulation results with the observed data during Typhoon "Longwang". The joint distribution and combined risk probability of rainfall and tidal level are estimated using the optimal copula function. The work carried out in this paper would facilitate assessment of flood risk significantly, which can be referred for the similar cities.

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 679-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Lian ◽  
K. Xu ◽  
C. Ma

Abstract. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms. The combined effect of multiple sources and the joint probability of extremes should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. This paper aims to study the combined effect of rainfall and the tidal level of the receiving water body on flood probability and severity in Fuzhou City, which has a complex river network. Flood severity under a range of precipitation intensities, with return periods (RPs) of 5 yr to 100 yr, and tidal levels was assessed through a hydrodynamic model verified by data observed during Typhoon Longwang in 2005. According to the percentages of the river network where flooding occurred, the threshold conditions for flood severity were estimated in two scenarios: with and without working pumps. In Fuzhou City, working pumps efficiently reduce flood risk from precipitation within a 20-yr RP. However, the pumps may not work efficiently when rainfall exceeds a 100-yr RP because of the limited conveyance capacity of the river network. Joint risk probability was estimated through the optimal copula. The joint probability of rainfall and tidal level both exceeding their threshold values is very low, and the greatest threat in Fuzhou comes from heavy rainfall. However, the tidal level poses an extra risk of flood. Given that this extra risk is ignored in the design of flood defense in Fuzhou, flood frequency and severity may be higher than understood during design.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 3089-3108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Duha Metin ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Björn Guse ◽  
Heiko Apel ◽  
...  

Abstract. Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Tauzer ◽  
Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova ◽  
Jhoyzett Mendoza ◽  
Telmo de la Cuadra ◽  
Jorge Cunalata ◽  
...  

Background: Populations in coastal cities are exposed to increasing risk of flooding, resulting in rising damages to health and assets. Local adaptation measures, such as early warning systems for floods (EWSFs), are urgently needed to reduce the risk and impact of flood events. The aim of this study was to assess community perceptions and self-reported actions in response to flooding in a tropical coastal city to inform flood risk reduction policies and programs.Methods: This qualitative case study was conducted in flood-prone areas in Machala, Ecuador, a coastal city exposed to seasonal floods and extreme floods during El Niño events. Adult community members from three periurban sites were invited to participate. Focus groups discussions (11 focus groups in total) were held with community members (n=65 people) from September to November 2014 to assess perceptions of flood exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and current alert systems. Focus groups discussions were audio recorded, transcribed, and coded by topic; participatory maps were field validated, georeferenced, and digitized using GIS software. Results: Community members identified the presence of annual flooding during the rainy season, as well as greater than normal flood events (depths ranging from 0.5 to 3 meters), which recurred every 3-4 years in some communities. The deepest floods occurred during the 1982 and 1997/1998 El Niño events. Community members perceived that exposure to flooding depended on the rainfall coinciding with high ocean tides, and geographic proximity to blocked drainage areas, canals, and low local elevation. Participants reported that children were the most sensitive group due to increased susceptibility to skin infections and mosquito borne diseases (i.e., dengue fever). Other sensitive groups included the elderly, physically handicapped people, low-income families, and recent migrants. They identified persistent social-ecological vulnerabilities that increased flood risk and exposure in the urban periphery, such as inadequate access to garbage collection, homes settled in precarious low-lying geographies, economic barriers, lack of political access, and lack of social mobilization. In addition, communities expressed a lack of social capital (e.g. political voice), despite the existence of formalized community councils. Key neighborhood resources with respect to flooding included green areas, schools, nurseries, fire stations, health clinics, police stations, a retention wall (berm), and an emergency meeting place. Challenges for adaptive capacity existed primarily in actions related to the preparation and recovery stages of flooding. Despite the presence of an official flood warning system, community member relied on informal communication channels via social media. Conclusions: The flood vulnerability assessment framework and participatory research process utilized here can potentially inform studies in other flood-prone regions to guide the development of EWSFs and other climate change adaptation policies and actions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Liu ◽  
Hanqing Xu ◽  
Jun Wang

Abstract. The co-occurrence of storm tide and rainstorm during tropical cyclones (TCs) can lead to compound flooding in low-lying coastal regions. The assessment of TC compound flood risk can provide vital insight for research on coastal flooding prevention. This study investigates TC compound flooding by constructing a storm surge model and overland flooding model using Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM), illustrating the serious consequences from the perspective of storm tide. Based on the probability distribution of storm tide, this study regards TC1415 as the 100-year event, TC6311 as the 50-year event, TC8616 as the 25-year event, TC8007 as the 10-year event, and TC7109 as the 5-year event. The results indicate that the coastal area is a major floodplain, primarily due to storm tide, with the inundation severity positively correlated with the height of the storm tide. For 100-year TC event, the inundation area with a depth above 1.0 m increases by approximately 2.5 times when compared with 5-year TC event. The comparison of single-driven flood (storm tide flooding and rainstorm inundation) and compound flood hazards shows that simply accumulating every single-driven flood hazard to define the compound flood hazard may cause underestimation. For future research on compound flooding, copula function can be adopted to investigate the joint occurrence of storm tide and rainstorm to reveal the severity of extreme TC flood hazards.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2223
Author(s):  
Ming Zhong ◽  
Jiao Wang ◽  
Tao Jiang ◽  
Zhijun Huang ◽  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
...  

Flash flooding is a phenomenon characterized by multiple variables. Few studies have focused on the extracted variables involved in flash flood risk and the joint probability distribution of the extracted variables. In this paper, a novel methodology that integrates the Apriori algorithm and copula function is presented and used for a flood risk analysis of Arizona in the United States. Due to the various rainfall indices affecting the flash flood risk, when performing the Apriori algorithm, the accumulated 3-h rainfall and accumulated 6-h rainfall were extracted as the most fitting rainfall indices. After comparing the performance of copulas, the Frank copula was found to exhibit the best fit for the flash flood hazard; thus, it was used for a bivariate joint probability analysis. The bivariate joint distribution functions of P–Q, PA–Q, PB–Q, and D–Q were established, and the results showed an increasing trend of flash flood risk with increases in the rainfall indices and peak flow; however, the risk displayed the least significant relation with the duration of the flash flood. These results are expected to be useful for risk analysis and decision making regarding flash floods.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Duha Metin ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Björn Guse ◽  
Heiko Apel ◽  
...  

Abstract. Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasise the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influences the overall flood risk.


2021 ◽  
pp. 126294
Author(s):  
Dingzhu Liu ◽  
Yifei Cui ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Wen Jin ◽  
Chunhao Wu ◽  
...  

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