scholarly journals Coupling of wave and circulation models in coastal–ocean predicting systems: a case study for the German Bight

Ocean Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 797-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
Kathrin Wahle ◽  
Heinz Günther ◽  
Emil Stanev
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Linear Feedback ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Wave Effects ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study addresses the impact of coupling between wave and circulation models on the quality of coastal ocean predicting systems. This is exemplified for the German Bight and its coastal area known as the Wadden Sea. The latter is the area between the barrier islands and the coast. This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales, which in many cases are due to unresolved non-linear feedback between strong currents and wind waves. In this study we present analysis of wave and hydrographic observations, as well as results of numerical simulations. A nested-grid modelling system is used to produce reliable nowcasts and short-term forecasts of ocean state variables, including waves and hydrodynamics. The database includes ADCP observations and continuous measurements from data stations. The individual and combined effects of wind, waves and tidal forcing are quantified. The performance of the forecast system is illustrated for the cases of several extreme events. The combined role of wave effects on coastal circulation and sea level are investigated by considering the wave-dependent stress and wave breaking parameterization. Also the response, which the circulation exerts on the waves, is tested for the coastal areas. The improved skill of the coupled forecasts compared to the non-coupled ones, in particular during extreme events, justifies the further enhancements of coastal operational systems by including wave effects in circulation models.

scholarly journals Coupling of wave and circulation models in coastal-ocean predicting systems: a case study for the German Bight

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 3169-3197
Author(s):  
J. Staneva ◽  
K. Wahle ◽  
H. Günther ◽  
E. Stanev
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Nonlinear Feedback ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study addresses the impact of coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the quality of coastal ocean predicting systems. This is exemplified for the German Bight and its coastal area known as the Wadden Sea. The latter is the area between the barrier islands and the coast. This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales, which in many cases are due to unresolved nonlinear feedback between strong tidal currents and wind-waves. In this study we present analysis of wave and hydrographic observations, as well as results of numerical simulations. A nested-grid modelling system is used to producing reliable nowcasts and short-term forecasts of ocean state variables, including wind waves and hydrodynamics. The data base includes ADCP observations and continuous measurements from data stations. The individual and collective role of wind, waves and tidal forcing are quantified. The performance of the forecast system is illustrated for the cases of several extreme events. Effects of ocean waves on coastal circulation and sea level are investigated by considering the wave-dependent stress and wave breaking parameterization. Also the effects which the circulation exerts on the wind waves are tested for the coastal areas using different parameterizations. The improved skill of the coupled forecasts compared to the non-coupled ones, in particular during extreme events, justifies the further enhancements of coastal operational systems by including wind wave models.

scholarly journals Ocean forecasting for the German Bight: from regional to coastal scales

Ocean Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1105-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emil V. Stanev ◽  
Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth ◽  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
Sebastian Grayek ◽  
Sebastian Grashorn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
German Bight ◽  
Unstructured Grid ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Hf Radar ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Forecasting

Abstract. This paper describes recent developments based on advances in coastal ocean forecasting in the fields of numerical modeling, data assimilation, and observational array design, exemplified by the Coastal Observing System for the North and Arctic Seas (COSYNA). The region of interest is the North and Baltic seas, and most of the coastal examples are for the German Bight. Several pre-operational applications are presented to demonstrate the outcome of using the best available science in coastal ocean predictions. The applications address the nonlinear behavior of the coastal ocean, which for the studied region is manifested by the tidal distortion and generation of shallow-water tides. Led by the motivation to maximize the benefits of the observations, this study focuses on the integration of observations and modeling using advanced statistical methods. Coastal and regional ocean forecasting systems do not operate in isolation but are linked, either weakly by using forcing data or interactively using two-way nesting or unstructured-grid models. Therefore, the problems of downscaling and upscaling are addressed, along with a discussion of the potential influence of the information from coastal observatories or coastal forecasting systems on the regional models. One example of coupling coarse-resolution regional models with a fine-resolution model interface in the area of straits connecting the North and Baltic seas using a two-way nesting method is presented. Illustrations from the assimilation of remote sensing, in situ and high-frequency (HF) radar data, the prediction of wind waves and storm surges, and possible applications to search and rescue operations are also presented. Concepts for seamless approaches to link coastal and regional forecasting systems are exemplified by the application of an unstructured-grid model for the Ems Estuary.

scholarly journals BLACK SWANS AND RISK - ASSESSING CONSEQUENCES OF EXTREME EVENTS FOR THE GERMAN BIGHT

2018 ◽  
pp. 103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Ulm ◽  
Arne Arns ◽  
Jürgen Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Lower Saxony ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Black Swans ◽  
Pumping Stations ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Total Water Level

Westerly and north-westerly storms regularly hit the German North Sea coast causing surges of several meters at the dikes. But extreme events like cyclone Xaver in 2013 are not the largest physically possible events on record. Dangendorf et al. (2016) show that the individual components of the total water level (i.e. mean sea level, surge, and tide) were not at their observed maximum during Xaver. The research project “EXTREMENESS” was initiated to examine the meteorological potential of storms in the German Bight and to assess the consequences of extremely large and rare but physically possible storm surge events, so called “black swans”. Our project partners, the German Meteorological Office, the German Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute, and Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, evaluate possible meteorological and resulting hydraulic boundary conditions including regionally projected sea level rise scenarios which we use to simulate inundations in the study area around Emden (Lower Saxony, Germany) using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical (2D-HN) model. Large parts of the region are situated below mean sea level and drained using tide gates and pumping stations. Therefore the area is highly vulnerable to dike failures and loads exceeding the design levels of defense structures. Combining inundation scenarios with exceeding probabilities and dike failure probabilities will yield risk maps, showing the most vulnerable dike sections and pointing out areas that need particular attention in maintenance.

Accent Policy and Accent Modification Enterprises as Potential Indicators of Intercultural Power Relations: A Call for an Updated Research Agenda

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brynne D. Ovalle ◽  
Rahul Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Identity Construction ◽  
Social Theory ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Linguistic Diversity ◽  
Cultural Organization ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This article has two purposes: (a) to examine the relationship between intercultural power relations and the widespread practice of accent discrimination and (b) to underscore the ramifications of accent discrimination both for the individual and for global society as a whole. First, authors review social theory regarding language and group identity construction, and then go on to integrate more current studies linking accent bias to sociocultural variables. Authors discuss three examples of intercultural accent discrimination in order to illustrate how this link manifests itself in the broader context of international relations (i.e., how accent discrimination is generated in situations of unequal power) and, using a review of current research, assess the consequences of accent discrimination for the individual. Finally, the article highlights the impact that linguistic discrimination is having on linguistic diversity globally, partially using data from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and partially by offering a potential context for interpreting the emergence of practices that seek to reduce or modify speaker accents.

Investigating the Relationship Between Self-Esteem and Stigma Among Young Adults With History of Suicide Attempts

Crisis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 265-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meshan Lehmann ◽  
Matthew R. Hilimire ◽  
Lawrence H. Yang ◽  
Bruce G. Link ◽  
Jordan E. DeVylder
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
High Functioning ◽  
People With Mental Illness ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Background: Self-esteem is a major contributor to risk for repeated suicide attempts. Prior research has shown that awareness of stigma is associated with reduced self-esteem among people with mental illness. No prior studies have examined the association between self-esteem and stereotype awareness among individuals with past suicide attempts. Aims: To understand the relationship between stereotype awareness and self-esteem among young adults who have and have not attempted suicide. Method: Computerized surveys were administered to college students (N = 637). Linear regression analyses were used to test associations between self-esteem and stereotype awareness, attempt history, and their interaction. Results: There was a significant stereotype awareness by attempt interaction (β = –.74, p = .006) in the regression analysis. The interaction was explained by a stronger negative association between stereotype awareness and self-esteem among individuals with past suicide attempts (β = –.50, p = .013) compared with those without attempts (β = –.09, p = .037). Conclusion: Stigma is associated with lower self-esteem within this high-functioning sample of young adults with histories of suicide attempts. Alleviating the impact of stigma at the individual (clinical) or community (public health) levels may improve self-esteem among this high-risk population, which could potentially influence subsequent suicide risk.

The Role of Threat and Economic Uncertainty in Support for Scottish Independence

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kopasker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Levels Of Support

Existing research has consistently shown that perceptions of the potential economic consequences of Scottish independence are vital to levels of support for constitutional change. This paper attempts to investigate the mechanism by which expectations of the economic consequences of independence are formed. A hypothesised causal micro-level mechanism is tested that relates constitutional preferences to the existing skill investments of the individual. Evidence is presented that larger skill investments are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving economic threats from independence. Additionally, greater perceived threat results in lower support for independence. The impact of uncertainty on both positive and negative economic expectations is also examined. While uncertainty has little effect on negative expectations, it significantly reduces the likelihood of those with positive expectations supporting independence. Overall, it appears that a general economy-wide threat is most significant, and it is conjectured that this stems a lack of information on macroeconomic governance credentials.

Laughter on the Fringes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Peterson
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Literary Canon ◽  
Autobiographical Writing ◽  
Treasure Trove ◽  
Old Comedy ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Aggressive Humor ◽  
The One ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

This book examines the impact that Athenian Old Comedy had on Greek writers of the Imperial era. It is generally acknowledged that Imperial-era Greeks responded to Athenian Old Comedy in one of two ways: either as a treasure trove of Atticisms, or as a genre defined by and repudiated for its aggressive humor. Worthy of further consideration, however, is how both approaches, and particularly the latter one that relegated Old Comedy to the fringes of the literary canon, led authors to engage with the ironic and self-reflexive humor of Aristophanes, Eupolis, and Cratinus. Authors ranging from serious moralizers (Plutarch and Aelius Aristides) to comic writers in their own right (Lucian, Alciphron), to other figures not often associated with Old Comedy (Libanius) adopted aspects of the genre to negotiate power struggles, facilitate literary and sophistic rivalries, and provide a model for autobiographical writing. To varying degrees, these writers wove recognizable features of the genre (e.g., the parabasis, its agonistic language, the stage biographies of the individual poets) into their writings. The image of Old Comedy that emerges from this time is that of a genre in transition. It was, on the one hand, with the exception of Aristophanes’s extant plays, on the verge of being almost completely lost; on the other hand, its reputation and several of its most characteristic elements were being renegotiated and reinvented.

Individuality and Beyond

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetta Zavatta
Keyword(s):  
Moral Autonomy ◽  
First Line ◽  
Philosophical Interpretation ◽  
Individual Personality ◽  
The World ◽  
Regulative Ideal ◽  
Personal Library ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Based on an analysis of the marginal markings and annotations Nietzsche made to the works of Emerson in his personal library, the book offers a philosophical interpretation of the impact on Nietzsche’s thought of his reading of these works, a reading that began when he was a schoolboy and extended to the final years of his conscious life. The many ideas and sources of inspiration that Nietzsche drew from Emerson can be organized in terms of two main lines of thought. The first line leads in the direction of the development of the individual personality, that is, the achievement of critical thinking, moral autonomy, and original self-expression. The second line of thought is the overcoming of individuality: that is to say, the need to transcend one’s own individual—and thus by definition limited—view of the world by continually confronting and engaging with visions different from one’s own and by putting into question and debating one’s own values and certainties. The image of the strong personality that Nietzsche forms thanks to his reading of Emerson ultimately takes on the appearance of a nomadic subject who is continually passing out of themselves—that is to say, abandoning their own positions and convictions—so as to undergo a constant process of evolution. In other words, the formation of the individual personality takes on the form of a regulative ideal: a goal that can never be said to have been definitively and once and for all attained.

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