Underestimated scale of songbird offshore migration across the south-eastern North Sea during autumn

Flights over open water can be challenging for migrating songbirds. Despite numerous observations of songbirds migrating over remote islands, virtually nothing is known about the proportion of songbirds risking to fly offshore rather than to follow the coastline. By means of large-scale automated radio-telemetry, we individually tracked songbirds during their autumn migration through the German Bight area in the south-eastern North Sea. Our tracking network facilitated the recording of movement patterns over the bay and, for the first time, the estimation of the proportions of individuals embarking on offshore flights from their coastal stopover sites. Our data are consistent with previous observations of decreasing migration densities from nearshore to offshore, i.e. from east to west in autumn. Still, we revealed a considerable proportion of 25% of birds flying offshore. The tendency to fly offshore decreased from west to south migrants, which is in line with optimal bird migration theory. Among south-west migrating species, which also comprise the vast majority of songbird species migrating through the German Bight area, thrushes showed the highest proportions of offshore flights. Considering the recent and ongoing increase of artificial offshore structures, our results suggest that some species or species groups might especially face an increased risk of being negatively affected.

The Role of Atmospheric Stability and Turbulence in Offshore Wind-Farm Wakes in the German Bight

Airborne meteorological in situ measurements as well as stationary measurements at the offshore masts FINO1 and FINO3 in the German Bight are evaluated in order to examine the hypothesis that the wake dissipation downstream of large offshore wind farms depends on atmospheric stability. A long-term study of the mast data for the years 2016 and 2017 demonstrates a clear dependence of stability on the wind direction. Stable conditions are predominantly expected during southerly winds coming from the land. The analysis of various stability and turbulence criteria shows that the lapse rate is the most robust parameter for stability classification in the German Bight, but further implies that stability depends on the measurement height. A near-surface (0 to 30 m), predominantly convective, layer is present and more stable conditions are found aloft (55 to 95 m). Combing the stability data with the airborne measurements of the offshore wind-farm wakes reveals the trend of a correlation between longer wake lengths and an increase in the initial wind-speed deficit downwind of a wind farm with stronger thermal stability. However, the stability correlation criteria with the wake length downstream of the four investigated wind farms, Godewind, Amrumbank West, Meerwind Süd/Ost, and Nordsee Ost, contain large variance. It is assumed that the observed scattering is due to the influence of the wind-farm architecture and temperature inversions around hub height. These, however, are crucial for the classification of stability and illustrate the complexity of a clear stability metric.

Detailed Patterns of Methane Distribution in the German Bight

Although methane is a widely studied greenhouse gas, uncertainties remain with respect to the factors controlling its distribution and diffusive flux into the atmosphere, especially in highly dynamic coastal waters. In the southern North Sea, the Elbe and Weser rivers are two major tributaries contributing to the overall methane budget of the southern German Bight. In June 2019, we continuously measured methane and basic hydrographic parameters at a high temporal and spatial resolution (one measurement per minute every 200–300 m) on a transect between Cuxhaven and Helgoland. These measurements revealed that the overall driver of the coastal methane distribution is the dilution of riverine methane-rich water with methane-poor marine water. For both the Elbe and Weser, we determined an input concentration of 40–50 nmol/L compared to only 5 nmol/L in the marine area. Accordingly, we observed a comparatively steady dilution pattern of methane concentration toward the marine realm. Moreover, small-scale anomalous patterns with unexpectedly higher dissolved methane concentrations were discovered at certain sites and times. These patterns were associated with the highly significant correlations of methane with oxygen or turbidity. However, these local anomalies were not consistent over time (days, months). The calculated diffusive methane flux from the water into the atmosphere revealed local values approximately 3.5 times higher than background values (median of 36 and 128 μmol m–2 d–1). We evaluate that this occurred because of a combination of increasing wind speed and increasing methane concentration at those times and locations. Hence, our results demonstrate that improved temporal and spatial resolution of methane measurements can provide a more accurate estimation and, consequently, a more functional understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of the coastal methane flux.

Wake properties and power output of very large wind farms for different meteorological conditions and turbine spacings: A large-eddy simulation case study for the German Bight

Germany’s expansion target for offshore wind power capacity of 40 GW by the year 2040 can only be reached if large portions of the Exclusive Economic Zone in the German Bight are equipped with wind farms. Because these wind farm clusters will be much larger than existing wind farms, it is unknown how they affect the boundary layer flow and how much power they will produce. The objective of this large-eddy-simulation study is to investigate the wake properties and the power output of very large potential wind farms in the German Bight for different turbine spacings, stabilities and boundary layer heights. The results show that very large wind farms cause flow effects that small wind farms do not. These effects include, but are not limited to, inversion layer displacement, counterclockwise flow deflection inside the boundary layer and clockwise flow deflection above the boundary layer. Wakes of very large wind farms are longer for shallower boundary layers and smaller turbine spacings, reaching values of more than 100 km. The wake in terms of turbulence intensity is approximately 20 km long, where longer wakes occur for convective boundary layers and shorter wakes for stable boundary layers. Very large wind farms in a shallow, stable boundary layer can excite gravity waves in the overlying free atmosphere, resulting in significant flow blockage. The power output of very large wind farms is higher for thicker boundary layers, because thick boundary layers contain more kinetic energy than thin boundary layers. The power density of the energy input by the geostrophic pressure gradient limits the power output of very large wind farms. Because this power density is very low (approximately 2 W m−2), the installed power density of very large wind farms should be small to achieve a good wind farm efficiency.

An integrated marine data collection for the German Bight – Part 1: Subaqueous geomorphology and surface sedimentology (1996–2016)

The German Bight located within the central North Sea is a hydro- and morphodynamically highly complex system of estuaries, barrier islands, and part of the world's largest coherent tidal flats, the Wadden Sea. To identify and understand challenges faced by coastal stakeholders, such as harbor operators or governmental agencies, to maintain waterways and employ numerical models for further analyses, it is imperative to have a consistent database for both bathymetry and surface sedimentology. Current commercial and public data products are insufficient in spatial and temporal resolution and coverage for recent analysis methods. Thus, this first part of a two-part publication series of the German joint project EasyGSH-DB describes annual bathymetric digital terrain models at a 10 m gridded resolution for the German North Sea coast and German Bight from 1996 to 2016 (Sievers et al., 2020a, https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0001), as well as surface sedimentological models of discretized cumulative grain size distribution functions for 1996, 2006, and 2016 on 100 m grids (Sievers et al., 2020b, https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0005). Furthermore, basic morphodynamic and sedimentological processing analyses, such as the estimation of, for example, bathymetric stability or surface maps of sedimentological parameters, are provided (Sievers et al., 2020a, b, see respective download links).

Optimisation of Parameters in a German Bight Circulation Model by 4DVAR Assimilation of Current and Water Level Observations

Uncertain parameters in a 3D barotropic circulation model of the German Bight are estimated with a variational optimisation approach. Surface current measurements from a high frequency (HF) radar are used in combination with acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and tide gauge observations as input for a 4DVAR assimilation scheme. The required cost function gradients are estimated using an adjoint model code. The focus of the study is on systematic errors of the model with the control vector including parameters of the bathymetry, bottom roughness, open boundary forcing, meteorological forcing as well as the turbulence model. The model uses the same bathymetry, open boundary forcing, and metereological forcing as the operational model run at the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH). The baroclinic BSH model is used as a reference to put the performance of the optimised model into perspective. It is shown that the optimised model has better agreement with HF radar data and tide gauge observations both within the fortnight training period and the test period 1 month later. Current profile measurements taken at two platforms indicate that both models have comparable error magnitudes at those locations. The optimised model was also compared with independent drifter data. In this case, drifter simulations based on the BSH model and the respective operational drift model including some surface wave effects were used as a reference. Again, these comparison showed very similar results overall, with some larger errors of the tuned model in very shallow areas, where no observations were used for the tuning and surface wave effects, which are only explicitly considered in the BSH model, play a more important role. The tuned model seems to be slightly more dissipative than the BSH model with more energy entering through the western boundary and less energy leaving toward the north. It also became evident that the 4DVAR cost function minimisation process is complicated by momentum advection, which leads to non-differentiable dependencies of the model with respect to the control vector. It turned out that the omission of momentum advection in the adjoint code still leads to robust estimates of descent directions.

How much atmospheric dynamics do we need to capture yield reductions from proposed large wind parks in the German Bight?

<p>German energy scenarios expect 50 - 70 GW of wind turbine capacity to be installed in the German Bight by 2050. Such deployments were expected to yield ∼4000 full load hours (FLH) per year, owing to higher wind speeds compared to land. However, a recent reevaluation of these estimates using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Explicit Wake Parameterization (WRF-EWP) and the Kinetic Energy Budget of the Atmosphere model (KEBA) found that if the proposed deployments are installed, yield per turbine could be as low as 3000 - 3500 FLH per year, although the total yield still increases. Whereas WRF represents a comprehensive physical representation of atmospheric dynamics, KEBA is an simple approximation of complex atmospheric processes. It states that it is the fixed kinetic energy budget of the boundary layer volume encompassing the wind park which determines large wind park (order of10<sup>4</sup>km<sup>2</sup>) yields rather than just wind speeds. This budget is a function of park geometry and boundary layer heights. Increasing the number of turbines within the wind park removes more kinetic energy from the budget. This leads to slower wind speeds and lower overall yields. The estimates from both approaches were within 20% of each other. Here, we examine these results in greater detail to uncover key atmospheric constraints on the performance of large offshore wind parks. We investigate the role of atmospheric variables like wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary layer height and surface friction on large scale generation by comparing the estimates of the two modelling approaches. We consider the WRF simulations of large-scale wind power generation and atmospheric circulation as the most realistic available representation, since farms of the scale considered in this study are not yet in operation. We also test the underlying assumptions of KEBA and hence the limits of its applicability. Through a detailed comparison of the two approaches we will provide insights into the effectiveness of KEBA. We posit that estimates of regional wind energy potential need to account for large wind park - atmosphere interactions which may constrain large wind park yields. Our analysis will provide policy makers with a simple yet physically representative tool for making robust predictions of future offshore wind park performance, thereby enabling the design of better energy policies.</p>

Exploring the coastal effects relevant for offshore wind farming using the space borne synthetic aperture radar data in the German Bight

<p>In the coastal zone complex atmospheric processes such as momentum and heat fluxes are  caused by large differences between the land and the sea. The smoother sea surface leads to wind speeds, which are usually higher over the ocean than over land. In addition, there are complicated effects caused by temperature gradients in the ocean due to water depth variations.  This study focuses on the investigation of the change in the horizontal wind field and the atmospheric stability between the coast and up to 200 km offshore.</p><p>The wind resources at 10 m height are assessed from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data acquired by the satellites Sentinel1A/B over the German Bight within the period of 2017-2020 with a focus on offshore wind directions. The satellite data provide information on sea surface roughness, which can be linked to near surface wind speed.  Information on the air-sea thermal components is  provided by model data from the German weather service (DWD).</p><p>The SAR data  show a significant increase of wind speed offshore in most cases. Increasing wind speeds between land and sea over fetch distances of 70 km and more are often detected. The increase δu in horizontal wind speed between offshore and the coast exceeds 2.5 m/s in average. Furthermore, the estimated atmospheric stability shows an impact on the wind speed gradients. The thermal stability appears to dictate the distance over which the wind increases. Strong thermal stability tends to influence the horizontal wind gradient by increasing the fetch distance over more than 100 km. In the context of offshore wind farming, the potential effects of these horizontal wind gradients on the wind power will be discussed.</p>

An integrated marine data collection for the German Bight – Part 2: Tides, salinity, and waves (1996–2015)

Marine spatial planning requires reliable data for, e.g., the design of coastal structures, research, or sea level rise adaptation. This task is particularly ambiguous in the German Bight (North Sea, Europe) because a compromise must be found between economic interests and biodiversity since the environmental status is monitored closely by the European Union. For this reason, we have set up an open-access, integrated marine data collection for the period from 1996 to 2015. It provides bathymetry, surface sediments, tidal dynamics, salinity, and waves for the German Bight and is of interest to stakeholders in science, government, and the economy. This part of a two-part publication presents data from numerical hindcast simulations for sea surface elevation, depth-averaged current velocity, bottom shear stress, depth-averaged salinity, wave parameters, and wave spectra. As an improvement to existing data collections, our data represent the variability in the bathymetry by using annually updated model topographies. Moreover, we provide data at a high temporal and spatial resolution (Hagen et al., 2020b); i.e., numerical model results are gridded to 1000 m at 20 min intervals (https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0004). Tidal characteristic values (Hagen et al., 2020a), such as tidal range or ebb current velocity, are computed based on numerical modeling results (https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0003). Therefore, this integrated marine data collection supports the work of coastal stakeholders and scientists, which ranges from developing detailed coastal models to handling complex natural-habitat problems or designing coastal structures.

Understanding the Impact of Bathymetric Changes in the German Bight on Coastal Hydrodynamics: One Step Toward Realistic Morphodynamic Modeling

The hydrodynamic response to morphodynamic variability in the coastal areas of the German Bight was analyzed via numerical experiments using time-referenced bathymetric data for the period 1982–2012. Time-slice experiments were conducted for each year with the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM). This unstructured-grid model resolves small-scale bathymetric features in the coastal zone, which are well-resolved in the high-resolution time-referenced bathymetric data (50 m resolution). Their analysis reveals the continuous migration of tidal channels, as well as rather complex change of the depths of tidal flats in different periods. The almost linear relationship between the cross-sectional inlet areas and the tidal prisms of the intertidal basins in the East Frisian Wadden Sea demonstrates that these bathymetric data describe a consistent morphodynamic evolutionary trend. The numerical experiment results are streamlined to explain the hydrodynamic evolution from 1982 to 2012. Although the bathymetric changes were mostly located in a relatively small part of the model area, they resulted in substantial changes in the M2 tidal amplitudes, i.e., larger than 5 cm in some areas. The hydrodynamic response to bathymetric changes largely exceeded the response to sea level rise. The tidal asymmetry estimated from the model appeared very sensitive to bathymetric evolution, particularly between the southern tip of Sylt Island and the Eider Estuary along the eastern coast. The peak current asymmetry weakened from 1982 to 1995 and even reversed within some tidal basins to become flood-dominant. This would suggest that the flushing trend in the 1980s was reduced or reversed in the second half of the studied period. Salinity also appeared sensitive to bathymetric changes; the deviations in the individual years reached ~22 psu in the tidal channels and tidal flats. One practical conclusion from the present numerical simulations is that wherever possible, the numerical modeling of near-coastal zones must employ time-referenced bathymetry data. The second, perhaps even more important conclusion, is that the progress of morphodynamic modeling in realistic ocean settings with multiple scales and varying bottom forms is strongly dependent on the availability of bathymetric data with appropriate temporal and spatial resolution.