scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific-North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts"

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Albers ◽  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Melissa L. Breeden ◽  
Andrew O. Langford ◽  
George N. Kiladis
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
Upper Level

scholarly journals Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific-North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Albers ◽  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Melissa L. Breeden ◽  
Andrew O. Langford ◽  
George N. Kiladis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anomalous Transport ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Jet Variability

Abstract. Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture exports (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific-North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide, Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads, but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes progressively worse as spring progresses into summer.

Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific-North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Albers ◽  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Melissa L. Breeden ◽  
Andrew O. Langford ◽  
George N. Kiladis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
North American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anomalous Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
Upper Level

<p>Mass transport is important to many aspects of Pacific-North American climate, including stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone to the planetary boundary layer, which has negative impacts on human health, and water vapor transport, which contributes to precipitation variability. Here, subseasonal forecasts (forecasts 3-6 weeks into the future) of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture exports (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific-North American region. To do this, we consider a very simple conditional probability: if 200 hPa zonal winds have a high (positive or negative) loading on a particular 200 hPa Pacific basin zonal wind pattern, then what will the corresponding shift in the probability of STT or TME be during those time periods? We first answer this question in the context of a retrospective analysis, which allows us to understand the regionality of STT and TME for different jet patterns. Then, using the retrospective results as a guide, we utilize zonal wind hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (taken from the S2S Prediction Project) to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (weeks 3-6). For both analyses, STT and TME are taken from the ETH-Zürich Feature-based climatology database, which allows us to apply a single, self-consistent measure of transport for both the retrospective (1979-2016) and hindcast (1997-2016) analysis periods.</p><p>We find that large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads, but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes progressively worse as spring progresses into summer.</p>

scholarly journals Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 433-452
Author(s):  
John R. Albers ◽  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Melissa L. Breeden ◽  
Andrew O. Langford ◽  
George N. Kiladis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anomalous Transport ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Jet Variability

Abstract. Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide, Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes steadily worse as spring progresses into summer.

Spurious Grid-Scale Precipitation in the North American Regional Reanalysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2168-2184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory L. West ◽  
W. James Steenburgh ◽  
William Y. Y. Cheng
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract Spurious grid-scale precipitation (SGSP) occurs in many mesoscale numerical weather prediction models when the simulated atmosphere becomes convectively unstable and the convective parameterization fails to relieve the instability. Case studies presented in this paper illustrate that SGSP events are also found in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and are accompanied by excessive maxima in grid-scale precipitation, vertical velocity, moisture variables (e.g., relative humidity and precipitable water), mid- and upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and mid- and upper-level absolute vorticity. SGSP events in environments favorable for high-based convection can also feature low-level cold pools and sea level pressure maxima. Prior to 2003, retrospectively generated NARR analyses feature an average of approximately 370 SGSP events annually. Beginning in 2003, however, NARR analyses are generated in near–real time by the Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS), which is identical to the retrospective NARR analysis system except for the input precipitation and ice cover datasets. Analyses produced by the R-CDAS feature a substantially larger number of SGSP events with more than 4000 occurring in the original 2003 analyses. An oceanic precipitation data processing error, which resulted in a reprocessing of NARR analyses from 2003 to 2005, only partially explains this increase since the reprocessed analyses still produce approximately 2000 SGSP events annually. These results suggest that many NARR SGSP events are not produced by shortcomings in the underlying Eta Model, but by the specification of anomalous latent heating when there is a strong mismatch between modeled and assimilated precipitation. NARR users should ensure that they are using the reprocessed NARR analyses from 2003 to 2005 and consider the possible influence of SGSP on their findings, particularly after the transition to the R-CDAS.

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