Flow-dependent and dynamical systems analyses of predictability of the Pacific-North American summertime circulation

Forecast skills of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and intrinsic predictability can be flow-dependent, e.g., different amongweather regimes. Here, we have examined the predictability of distinct Pacific-North American weather regimes in June-September. Fourweather regimes are identified using a self-organizing map analysis of daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and are shown to havedistinct and coherent links to near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies over the North American continent. The 4 to 14-dayforecast skills of these 4 regimes are quantified for the ECMWF and the NCEP models (from the TIGGE project) and the Global EnsembleForecast System (GEFS). Based on anomaly correlation coefficient, persistence, and transition frequency, the highest forecast skills areconsistently found for regime 3 (Arctic high). In general, the least skillful forecasts are for regime 1 (Pacific trough). The instantaneous localdimension and persistence of each regime are computed using a dynamical systems-based analysis. The local dimension and persistenceare indicators of intrinsic predictability. This analysis robustly shows that regime 3 has the highest intrinsic predictability. The analysisalso suggests that overall, regime 1 has the lowest intrinsic predictability. These findings are consistent with the high (low) forecast skillsof NWP models for regime 3 (regime 1). Weather regime 1 is associated with above-normal temperature and precipitation anomalies overwestern North America and around the Gulf of Mexico region, indicating potentially important implications for the poor predictability ofthis regime. The dynamical systems analysis suggests that better estimates of initial conditions might improve the forecasts of this regime.

Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide, Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes steadily worse as spring progresses into summer.

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern

Recent rapid Arctic sea-ice reduction has been well documented in observations, reconstructions and model simulations. However, the rate of sea ice loss is highly variable in both time and space. The western Arctic has seen the fastest sea-ice decline, with substantial interannual and decadal variability, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here we demonstrate, through both observations and model simulations, that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is an important driver of western Arctic sea-ice variability, accounting for more than 25% of the interannual variance. Our results suggest that the recent persistent positive PNA pattern has led to increased heat and moisture fluxes from local processes and from advection of North Pacific airmasses into the western Arctic. These changes have increased lower-tropospheric temperature, humidity and downwelling longwave radiation in the western Arctic, accelerating sea-ice decline. Our results indicate that the PNA pattern is important for projections of Arctic climate changes, and that greenhouse warming and the resultant persistent positive PNA trend is likely to increase Arctic sea-ice loss.

The evolution of Pacific-North American teleconnection during the past 250 million years

<p>The Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection is one of the most crucial climate modes in the current climate. It is well known that the PNA is related to the ENSO variability, and it has a significant influence on North American climate. Whereas, the traditional physical mechanisms about the PNA is probably not applicable for the deep-time paleoclimate. During the past 250 million years, climate variabilities are strongly structured by the evolution of land-sea distribution, CO<sub>2 </sub>forcing, and solar radiation. In this work, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.2 to investigate the changes of PNA every 10 million years. The deep-time simulation provides a new way to understand the nature of PNA and the related physical mechanisms. We found that the spatial distribution of the PNA-like mode is closely related to the land-sea distribution. And the combination effect from atmospheric circulation and the thermal condition is proved to be important to modulate the evolution of PNA.</p>

Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific-North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

<p>Mass transport is important to many aspects of Pacific-North American climate, including stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone to the planetary boundary layer, which has negative impacts on human health, and water vapor transport, which contributes to precipitation variability. Here, subseasonal forecasts (forecasts 3-6 weeks into the future) of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture exports (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific-North American region. To do this, we consider a very simple conditional probability: if 200 hPa zonal winds have a high (positive or negative) loading on a particular 200 hPa Pacific basin zonal wind pattern, then what will the corresponding shift in the probability of STT or TME be during those time periods? We first answer this question in the context of a retrospective analysis, which allows us to understand the regionality of STT and TME for different jet patterns. Then, using the retrospective results as a guide, we utilize zonal wind hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (taken from the S2S Prediction Project) to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (weeks 3-6). For both analyses, STT and TME are taken from the ETH-Zürich Feature-based climatology database, which allows us to apply a single, self-consistent measure of transport for both the retrospective (1979-2016) and hindcast (1997-2016) analysis periods.</p><p>We find that large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads, but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes progressively worse as spring progresses into summer.</p>

Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific-North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts

Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical moisture exports (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific-North American region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide, Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads, but likely only in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes progressively worse as spring progresses into summer.