scholarly journals An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-198
Author(s):  
Okosu Napoleon David
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
National Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP STABILITAS RUPIAH

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Azhar Bafadal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This research aimed to study the impact of monetary policy on the rupiah stability. Variables used were the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI), the rate of inflation (IHK), the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar (Kurs) and the money supply in the narrow sense (M1). Data used were of quarterly time series data of Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistic, covering 2002.1-2010.4. The analysis was undertaken by using a vector autoregression model (VAR), through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The research results showed that in the sort run shocks of SBI  decreased the inflation rate, and in the long run the inflation rate was constant. The exchange rate tended to be appreciated in the short run and long run although in a small magnitude. Money supply decreased with a minor fluctuation. Initially, the money supply shocks increased the interest rate of SBI, but decreased in the long run. The rate of inflation fluctuated in the sort run but it was constant in the long run. The exchange rate was depreciated both in the sort run and in the long run.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

10.26458/1815 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE ◽  
J. C ODIMGBE ◽  
V. N. EZEABALISI ◽  
Udoka Bernard ALAJEKWU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Effect

The study investigated effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria. The natural log of the GDP was used as the dependent variables against the explanatory monetary policy variables: monetary policy rate, money supply, exchange rate, lending rate and investment. The time series data is the market controlled period covering 1986 to 2016. The study adopted an Ordinary Least Squared technique and also conducted the unit root and co-integration tests. The study showed that long run relationship exists among the variables. Also, the core finding of this study showed that monetary policy rate, interest rate, and investment have insignificant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Money supply however has significant positive effect on growth in Nigeria. Exchange rate has significant negative effect on GDP in Nigeria. Money supply and investment granger cause economic growth, while economic growth causes interest rate in Nigeria. On the overall, monetary policy explain 98% of the changes in economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, the study concluded that monetary policy can be effectively used to control Nigerian economy and thus a veritable tool for price stability and improve output.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP STABILITAS RUPIAH

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 416-433
Author(s):  
Azhar Bafadal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This research aimed to study the impact of monetary policy on the rupiah stability. Variables used were the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI), the rate of inflation (IHK), the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar (Kurs) and the money supply in the narrow sense (M1). Data used were of quarterly time series data of Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistic, covering 2002.1-2010.4. The analysis was undertaken by using a vector autoregression model (VAR), through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The research results showed that in the sort run shocks of SBI  decreased the inflation rate, and in the long run the inflation rate was constant. The exchange rate tended to be appreciated in the short run and long run although in a small magnitude. Money supply decreased with a minor fluctuation. Initially, the money supply shocks increased the interest rate of SBI, but decreased in the long run. The rate of inflation fluctuated in the sort run but it was constant in the long run. The exchange rate was depreciated both in the sort run and in the long run.

scholarly journals Implication of Monetary Policy Rate and Interest Rate on Exchange Rate in Nigeria: 1981-2017

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Nnamani, Vincent ◽  
Anyanwaokoro, Mike
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the implication of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate and interest rate in Nigeria, 1981-2017. Because of the above-stated problems, the specific objectives are to: Investigate the effect of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate in Nigeria, determine the effect of the monetary policy rate on interest rate in Nigeria. The analysis of error correction and autoregressive lags fully covers both long-run and short-run relationships of the variable under study. The statistical tool of analysis employed in the study is Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Philips Peron method of stationary testing and structural breakpoint unit root test., these methods were employed to check the stationarity and breakpoint analysis of the time series data employed in this study. The study observed that monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate in Nigeria. It was also observed that the monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the interest rate in Nigeria. Overall, our results indicated that the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate was significant. There was a positive and significant relationship between monetary policy variables and exchange rate. The conclusion that is drawn from our results is that monetary policy remains an effective and potent tool for ensuring a stable exchange rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that monetary policy should be used to create a favourable investment environment by facilitating the emergence of market-based interest rate and exchange rate regimes which could attract domestic and foreign investments. Second; the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) need to avoid ordination and balance between monetary and fiscal policies to ensure the smooth realization of monetary policy goals. Policy inconsistency or summersault to determine its policy impact before contemplating a change. Finally, there should be a coo.

scholarly journals Public Debt, Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth: A Study on Indian Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-601
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Internal Debt

External debt and internal debt form main components of the public debt structure in India. India’s debt profile shows increasing external debt and simultaneously increasing the deficit in current account which have impact on economic growth of India. Our study assesses the impact of India’s Gross External Debt (GED), Internal Debt (IND) and Current Account Deficit (CAD) on economic growth (GDP) by using time series data from 1998-99 to 2018-19. We intend to find long-run as well as short run relationship between the variables with the help of Eviews software. Stationarity of data is tested by considering Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test statistics and used Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result shows co-integration among the variables with one equation. The result of VECM shows existence of long-run relationship among the variables. But the study fails to find the short-run causality among the variables. The results show external debt (GED), internal debt (IND), and Current Account Deficit (CAD) have negative and statistically insignificant relationship with GDP. It shows increase in public debt and deficit in current account results in decrease in GDP growth.

scholarly journals IMPLICATIONS OF MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
E. E. Osuji ◽  
A. Tim-Ashama ◽  
M. O. Okwara ◽  
J. A. L. Effiong ◽  
U. G. Anyanwu
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
National Food Security

In recent time, the impact of macro-economic variables on agriculture has become an issue of concern in terms of securing adequate food supply for the populace. This study evaluated the implications of macro-economic variables for national food security in Nigeria. This study made use of time series data sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Reports, Statistical Bulletins and the National Bureau of Statistics spanning from 1995 to 2015. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration test with Error Correction Model (ECM) was adopted to substantiate the implications of these macro-economic variables. The results of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test showed that Food security, Interest rate, Exchange rate, Net export and Government expenditures were non stationary at their respective level forms and became stationary at first difference. While Inflation and Money supply were found to be stationary at level form. ARDL bounds test for co-integration confirms the existence of long run relationship between the variables. The results of long run and short run relationships shows that Interest rate, Inflation, Government expenditures and Money supply were both significant at 5% and 1% levels indicating that these variables had a significant impact on food security. The estimated error correction coefficient of -0.7996 is highly significant, has the correct sign, and implies a fairly high speed of adjustment to equilibrium after a shock. However, these findings recommend farmers in Nigeria to take good advantage of the linkages between macroeconomic variables and agricultural productivity, as this useful information can assist them to boost their land productivity, hence increased food security at all times. Osuji, E. E. | Department of Agricultural Economics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike (MOUAU), Abia State, Nigeria

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION CONTROL: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clement I. Ezeanyeji ◽  
Cyril Ogugua Obi ◽  
Chika Priscilla Imoagwu ◽  
Ugochukwu Frank Ejefobihi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Inflation is a major problem facing Nigeria as a country today. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), however, has made efforts to fight it using different policy measures, of which monetary policy is one of them. Thus, this study focuses on the impact of monetary policy on inflation control in Nigeria. The study is based on time series data from 1980 to 2019. The Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Johansen’s co-integration test, the Error Correction model (ECM) estimation was employed in the analysis. The variables include – exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply (% GDP), Treasury bill rate and monetary policy rate. The research findings showed that monetary policy has no significant impact on inflation control in Nigeria both in the short – run and long – run. Money supply has negative and insignificant impact on inflation control in Nigeria both in the short – run and long – run. Again, exchange rate has negative and insignificant effect on inflation control in Nigeria both in the short – run and long – run. The Treasury bill rate has negative but significant effect on inflation control in Nigeria in the short – run, while in the long – run it has positive but insignificant effect on inflation control in Nigeria. The study, therefore, recommends that, Government should provide monetary policies that will preferred efficient provider of favourable environment in terms of the implementation of the appropriate monetary policy rate, exchange rate etc in order to attract both domestic and foreign investment which will create employment opportunities for the Nigerian populace and in turn lead to the expansion of the industries in the country. JEL: E42; E52; E31

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Spillovers Through Industrial Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olatunji A. Shobande
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Credit

Abstract The study examines the impact of switching from direct to indirect monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria, using the annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) statistical bulletin between 1960 and 2015. The study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) for estimating the relevant relationships. The result of the long-run estimates shows that domestic credit, interest rate and trade balance have positive impact on industrial output while money supply, inflation and exchange rate have negative impact on industrial growth. The result of the short-run dynamics shows that change in the previous (one and second lagged) periods of indirect monetary policy (interest rate, money supply, domestic credit and exchange rate) and industrial output were negatively related to change in industrial output. The error correction term indicates the speed of adjustment of equilibrium to their long-run position, which was found to be negative and significant. The study recommends that policy makers use both conventional and non-conventional monetary policies to speed up industrial output growth and enhance economic recovery by manipulating the macro-economic fundamentals.

scholarly journals DETERMINASI VOLATILITAS KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR AMERIKA

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ade Irma Nurhasanah ◽  
Soeharjoto Soekapdjo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Us Dollar

Purpose of this study is to know about Rupiah exchange rate  to US Dollar determination with quarterly time series data, from 2010-2017. Using Error Connection Model (ECM) with regression method, and dependent variable is Rupiah exchange rate to US Dollar, and independent variable is foreign debt, current account balance, and Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) interest rate.  Result shown that at short term, foreign debt and current account were not significant, but SBI interest rate have a positive and significant effect from Rupiah to US Dollar.  For long term, all of independent variable have positive and significant to dependent variable.

scholarly journals Financial deepening and economic growth in nigeria (1981-2012): A managerial economic perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 120-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Igwe ◽  
Chukwudi Emmanuel Edeh ◽  
Wilfred Isioma Ukpere
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Equilibrium Path ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of financial deepening on economic growth in Nigeria. The supply leading hypothesis was adopted as the theoretical framework of the study. Data for analysis was for the period 1981-2012 obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The explanatory variables were logged values of broad money supply/GDP and Credit to the private sector/GDP. The times series data were tested for stationarity using the ADF unit root tests of stationarity and were found to be stationary at first difference. The Engle-Granger Cointegration technique and Error correction model were used for the test of long run relationship. Findings reveal that money supply (MS) is positive and weakly significant in determining economic growth. However, credit to the private sector was negative and not significant in the short run. The speed of adjustment of the ECM is 25.51%. This implies that if there are short run fluctuations, GDP will converge to its long run equilibrium path at a speed of about 25.51% in each period .The conclusion is that financial deepening does not have the desired impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Hence, there is a need for increase and improvement in access to private credit to enhance economic growth and investment.

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