scholarly journals The Dynamic Linkages among Sector Indices: The Case of the Egyptian Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Walid M. A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Equity Market ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investigation Period ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

<p>The main thrust of this study is to investigate both the long-term and short-term links among sectors of the Egyptian equity market. The empirical analysis is carried out using Johansen’s multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger’s causality analysis. The investigation period extends from 3 April 2011 to 31 May 2015. The results of cointegration analysis indicate that there exists a single cointegrating vector within the sample sector indices. The Granger’s causality analysis shows that the short-term causal relationships between the sector indices are substantially limited and, where they exist, practically unidirectional. By and large, an important implication of these findings is that there is still possibility to obtain gains from portfolio diversification in the short run. Nonetheless, investors with long-term horizon might not be able to benefit from diversifying into the various sectors of the Egyptian market.</p>

The Empirical Analysis of the Driving Factors of China Coal Demand

2011 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 1290-1295
Author(s):  
Guang Fu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Equilibrium Relation ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Urbanization Level ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relations ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Consumption Efficiency

This paper tests the long-term equilibrium relations and short-term dynamic relations by applying Johansen co-integration test and VECM model among the coal demand, economic aggregate, economic structure, energy consumption efficiency, and urbanization level of china. It shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relation among above variables. Then the long-term elasticity of coal demand to other variables is given. It also shows, in the short run, the T time coal demand will affected by T-2 time economic aggregate, T-2 time urbanization level, T-1 time coal demand, and T-2 time coal demand. At last, the paper gives suggestions on how to control coal consumption in china.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Unemployment and Immigration: The Case of OECD Countries (2008-2018)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selahattin Sarı ◽  
Ahmet Ay ◽  
Melike Köksal
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

In the broadest sense, immigration is defined as the change of places where people live, and it becomes a more complicated phenomenon when analyzed from the socio-economic, political and psychological aspects. The extent of the impact of migration in this context varies according to the conditions of each country, but it is also related to the number of migrants received and the many personal characteristics of immigrants, such as age, education level. Therefore, there is no unanimity on the subject in the literature. The total number of settled migrations of the 25 OECD countries in the last 10 years has been used. The effects of the migrants employed in the labor markets (registered) on the unemployment rates of the selected countries were investigated. The study period was selected as 2008-2018 years. The data was obtained from the OECD and World Bank databases. In this context, panel causality analysis was applied to investigate the short-term effects of the employed migrants on the unemployment rates of the selected countries. As a result of the analysis, in the short-term, no double or one-way relationship between unemployment and immigration was found. However, in the long run, the cointegration relationship between the variables was determined and the panel cointegration analysis revealed that long-term migration would affect unemployment in the same direction. So, according to the results of the analysis; for the countries examined, there is a long-term and similar relationship between unemployment and settled migrants who participate in labor force in the selected period.

COMMON FEATURES IN EAST ASIAN STOCK MARKETS: LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM COMOVEMENTS BETWEEN CHINA AND KOREA

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350018
Author(s):  
HAHN SHIK LEE ◽  
SOO IN KIM
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
East Asian ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Contemporaneous Correlation ◽  
East Asian Stock Markets

As increasing attention has been given in recent literature to the potential of the Chinese financial market, we investigate the strength of shared dynamics among East Asian stock markets, by examining both the long-term and short-term comovements. In doing so, the cointegration analysis is used to assess the long-term relationship, whereas the notions of cofeature as well as contemporaneous correlation are employed to discuss the short-term relationship. The basic finding is that evidence for short-term comovement between the Korean and Chinese stock markets appears to be strong, while evidence for long-term relationship is rather weak. Empirical results from subsamples suggest that both the long-term and short-term relationships have strengthened since the acquisition of QFII qualification by Korean financial firms. These observations indicate that the international linkage between the two countries has strengthened along with increasing opportunities for international investment in the Chinese stock market.

scholarly journals MENEJMEN RISIKO DALAM PERFEKTIF ISLAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriyo Supriyo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Production System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Islamic Perspective ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run ◽  
A Company

Human life with all its activities in order to meet the needs of life always will always faced the possibility of risk either directly or indirectly, can occur in the short term or long term. A possibility of the occurrence or risk had certainly will affect the activity to be done And adversely affect the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a great fire and spends all and has a bad impact For the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a terrible fire and consumes all the company's assets Newly established. Everyone or anyone else would not want the incident to happen and befall themselves and his business in the future. Keywords: Islamic perspective, Risk management

scholarly journals Effect of Carbon Dioxide Concentration on Cereal Yield in Sudan

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ibrahim A. Onour ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Yield Increase ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Bound Test

To estimate the long-term effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission on cereal yield in Sudan, we employed an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bound test for cointegration analysis. The ARDL results reveal evidence of cointegration between the dependent variable (cereals yield) and two independent variables (CO2 emission) and agricultural GDP. The estimation results of the error correction model indicate that change in CO2 has a positive and significant impact on the cereal yield in the long and short terms, as 1% increase in CO2 leads to a cereal yield increase by 3% in the short term and by 0.7% in the long term. This result adds two important findings to the existing literature: First, the positive impact of CO2 on cereal yield in Sudan supports previous research findings in other countries of warm and arid climates. Second, the effect of CO2 on cereal yield differs from short to long term, as our finding indicates that CO2 has a greater positive effect in the short term compared to that in the long term, implying that the effect of CO2 on cereal yields is not linear, as commonly perceived, but it decreases as time duration extends to longer periods. This may be due to the CO2 effect on global warming that emanates from cumulative CO2 concentration, which leaves a disproportionate impact on crops over time.

Equity market timing and capital structure: evidence on post-IPO firms in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dewi Ratih
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Capital ◽  
Corporate Capital Structure ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Equity Market Timing

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies in Indonesia by apply Baker and Wurgler’s analytical approach to firms in Indonesia to see, first, if that approach applies to Indonesian firms and, second, if it can be generalized to other emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study will focus on capital structure policies based on Market Timing Theory in developing countries, which uses the panel data of companies listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange after IPO. The companies used as research object are 70 firms in the non-financial/non-banking sector with the observation period of 2000–2015. The period of measurement is five years after IPO. Using a past market value in which equity market timing is measured in two-time measurements, i.e. yearly timing and long-term timing to prove its persistence. Findings Consistent with equity market timing theory, the results suggest that firms tend to issue equities when their market valuations are relatively higher than their book values and their past market values are high. As a consequence, the firms become underleveraged or have their debts reduced in the short run. The results of long-term measurement on equity market timing do not appear to affect the firms’ capital structure decisions due to the firms’ relatively quick adjustments of optimal capital structures. The conclusion is that equity market timing is an important element in the short run but not in the long run. Research limitations/implications The results of this study describe how firms in Indonesia take advantage of temporary market share fluctuations through equity market timing in their capital structure policies before ultimately making adjustments to the directions they are targeting. Practical implications The use of equity market timing is more aimed at reducing the debt ratio and avoiding unfavorable conditions in the debt market, as well as taking advantage of the capital gains derived from the differences in their stock prices. This study also has practical implications on investment policies that need to consider the adaptation factor of the industrial environment when it comes to making capital structure decisions, including how the entity must take policy when uncertain economic conditions. Social implications Through the research behavior of capital structure more in-depth decision is expected to provide an overview for investors widely in determining investment policy. Thus, the investment strategy is more planned and can also anticipate unexpected conditions. Originality/value This research is the first study to analyze and to evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies on post-IPO firms in Indonesia. This research is an empirical study that investigates the relevance of equity market timing considerations in the determination of debt-equity choices in the capital structure, included in the conditions of the global financial crisis.

scholarly journals Analyzing long-term empirical interactions between renewable energy generation, energy use, human capital, and economic performance in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nousheen Fatima ◽  
Yanbin Li ◽  
Munir Ahmad ◽  
Gul Jabeen ◽  
Xiaoyu Li
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Generation ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Renewable Energy Generation

Abstract Background The current research attempts to systematically investigate the causal interactions between renewable energy generation, aggregated energy use, human capital, and economic performance in Pakistan both in a short-term and long-term test for the period of 1990–2016. Methods As a primary step, a unit root analysis was conducted employing, among others, an augmented Dickey-Fuller-generalized least squares (ADF-GLS) test. Based on the order of integration I(1), the Johansen and Juselius (JJ) co-integration testing was employed to confirm a long-term causality analysis, which was followed by a vector error correction model (VECM) to calculate the short-run Granger causality analysis. Furthermore, the vector autoregressive (VAR)-based Cholesky test allowed the standard deviation impulse response functions to be generated to explain the responses of variables to arbitrary shocks in the data series under analysis. Results The empirical findings unearthed the bilateral causal connection between aggregated energy use and economic performance, renewable energy generation and economic performance, and human capital and economic performance. Thus, it confirmed the existence of feedback effects for aggregated energy use, renewable energy generation, and human capital in their relation to economic performance. Likewise, a unilateral positive causal connection was revealed running from renewable energy generation and human capital to aggregated energy use, and from human capital to renewable energy generation in both a long-term and short-term test. Additionally, the causal association running from aggregated energy use and renewable energy generation to economic performance was exposed in a long-term as well as short-term test, hence supporting the growth hypothesis. Conclusions The findings signified the importance of an enhanced generation of renewable energy along with the promotion of an aggregated energy use for the economic performance in Pakistan.

Foreign Demand, Investment And Trade Balance: The Case Of Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Francois Hoarau ◽  
Alain Nurbel ◽  
Nelson Latchimy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The World ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This paper aims at analysing the relation between real trade balance and foreign demand in the case of a small opened economy, which highly depends upon the rest of the world for productive capital. Theoretical analysis allows us to bring forth a kind of “J-curve” effect. Indeed, when foreign demand for domestic goods increases, the country is to import in a first time in order to improve its productive capacities, resulting in worsening trade balance. However, in a second time, once the cumulated capital inventory became sufficient, the trade balance improves under the pressure of domestic exports high growth. The empirical analysis based on Australia from 1982 (1) to 2001 (1) supports this theory. We show there are negative short term and positive long term elasticities.

scholarly journals Coach Mid-Season Replacement and Team Performance in Professional Soccer

2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Lago-Peñas
Keyword(s):  
Team Performance ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Shock Effect ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Coach Mid-Season Replacement and Team Performance in Professional SoccerThe coaching carousel or turnover is an extreme but frequently occurring phenomenon in soccer. Among the reasons for firing a coach, the most common is the existence of a shock-effect: a new coach would be able to motivate the players better and therefore to improve results. Using data from the Spanish Soccer League during the seasons from 1997-1998 to 2006-2007, this paper investigates the relationship between team performance and coach change over time. The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination.

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