Research on the Impact of Technological Finance on Financial Stability: Based on the Perspective of High-Quality Economic Growth

This paper investigates the relationship between technological finance, high-quality economic growth, and financial stability. Based on data of 30 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) collected between 2004 and 2017, this paper adopts the method of factor analysis to construct comprehensive indexes of technological finance and financial stability before calculating green total factor productivity as the index of high-quality development, using the CRS Multiplicative Model. Then it constructs the spatial SAC model and PVAR model for analyses of the just-mentioned relationship based on the total sample of the nation and regional samples in eastern, middle, and western China, respectively. The results reveal that (1) All samples, whether the total national samples or regional samples of eastern, middle, and western China demonstrate the positive influence of technological finance on high-quality economic development, with an obvious spatial spillover effect. The impact factor is the highest in the eastern region, while the western region holds the lowest factor among the three. (2) Judging by the general national sample, technological finance has an obvious negative shock effect on financial stability within a short period, but the effect gradually dwindles as time goes by. This rule applies to the sample of the eastern region, as its technological finance poses a short-time negative shock effect on financial stability, before gradually diminishing to 0. Neither western nor middle regions have displayed an obvious shock impact on financial stability.

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data

This paper undertakes a near real-time analysis of the income distribution effects of the Covid-19 crisis in Australia to understand the ongoing changes in the income distribution as well as the impact of policy responses. By semi-parametrically combining incomplete observed data from three different sources–the monthly Longitudinal Labour Force Survey, the Survey of Income and Housing and administrative payroll data–we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on the Australian income distribution and decompose its impact into the income shock effect and the policy effect between February and June 2020, covering the immediate periods before and after the initial Covid-19 outbreak. Our results suggest that, despite growth in unemployment, the Gini coefficient of equivalised household disposable income dropped by more than 0.02 points between February and June 2020. This reduction is due to the additional wage subsidies and welfare supports offered as part of the policy response, offsetting the increase in income inequality from the income shock effect. The results shows the effectiveness of temporary policy measures both in maintaining living standards and avoiding increases in income inequality. However, the heavy reliance on the support measures shown in the modelling raises the possibility that the changes in the income distribution may be reversed, or even that inequality and living standards could substantially worsen once the measures are withdrawn.

The Weird ‘Others’: An ‘Alternative’ Understanding of the Witches of Macbeth from Feminist Perspective

This paper attempts to re-interpret the witches of Macbeth from a Feminist perspective. Both critics as well as the ordinary readers mostly receive them in a negative light. Doing so, they overlook the fact that women like these witches are relegated to the margins and share a history of being discriminated and vulnerable to attacks. Within the text, they are humiliated as the ‘weird others’ and compared to ‘bubbles’ on earth. To this date, people have the tendency to marginalize and discriminate women who posit their individuality in their socially reclusive lifestyle. While analyzing their character from a Feminist perspective, the paper will explore their trauma and identify their mischief as a source of rebellion. By making such an alternative reading of the text, the work aims to create a ‘shock-effect’ among people who continue to discriminate such marginalized women.

Improving the Approaches to Tax Reform in Ukraine

The article is aimed at analyzing the provisions of the Draft Law of Ukraine «On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine and Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Ensuring the Balance of Budget Revenues» No. 5600 (hereinafter – the Draft Law) and its adoption procedures to develop proposals for improving the approaches to tax reform in Ukraine. It is proved that many innovations of the Draft Law require significant reworking or should not be supported, and the implementation of the entire «package of measures» envisaged is unlikely to provide for achieving an increase in the efficiency of the tax system. Almost exclusively, the fiscal focus of tax reform in the context of unfavorable conditions, the lack of consensus on its initiatives with business and other stakeholders, non-compliance with the principle of stability of tax legislation can adversely affect the activities of many sectors of the Ukrainian economy and GDP growth in general. Therefore, there are risks, at least, of underreceipt of additional tax revenues. It is argued that special attention in reworking the Draft Law should be paid to the norms related, in particular, to the abolition of VAT exemption for housing supply operations on the secondary market; changes in excise taxation of beer and tobacco products; increase of rent for the use of radio frequency resource; transition to excessively strict tax administration rules. Thus, it is important to take into account the positions of business associations and warnings on the part of experts, as well as the entry into force of legislative norms within the terms that will not have a «shock effect» on taxpayers. It is especially emphasized that further reform of the tax system of Ukraine should be comprehensive and take place on the basis of the relevant strategy.

COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia

This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non-food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non-food prices, investment, employment and export shocks. The overall impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock is interpreted into the economy by resulting under consumption at least in the next three years since 2020. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. The potency of fiscal policies in stabilizing food, transport and communication prices go in line with the prevailing reality in Ethiopia where government has strong hands to control those markets directly and/or indirectly. This suggests market failure featuring COVID-19 time, calling for managed interventions of governments to promote market stabilities. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular.

THE EFFECT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN ETHIOPIA

<div>This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. <br></div><div>The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non food prices, investment, employment and export shocks.</div><div>The VAR estimate indicates that COVID-19 uncertainty shock results a massive rise in import in the six months following the outbreak of the pandemic. The finding in this regard is expected, as the pandemic triggers massive demand in food and pharmaceuticals, for which Ethiopia is import dependent on both items. In the next two years, however, the import bill of Ethiopia shows a decline. Reduction in aggregate demand (both consumption & investment expenditures) is one explanation for decline in import size in 2013 and 2014 E.C.</div><div>The price dynamics as forecasted in the upcoming three years in Ethiopia tells the direction of impacts of COVID-19 uncertainty shock to shake the macroeconomic order. The findings in this regard revealed the structural breakups of Ethiopian economy, characterized by its inability to withstand shocks. As signaled in forecasted price dynamics on both food and non food price indices, COVID-19 was a supply shock in its first time impact, but quickly transpasses to demand shock. And in the next few years the demand shock outweighs the supply shock. </div><div>The results of estimations indicate that food prices to sky rocketed at least until the end of 2014 E.C (2021/22 E.F.Y). On the other hand, except communication & hotel & restaurant prices, other components of non food price indices show a slump. The decline in non food price level is a clear showcase of under consumption characterizes the economic order in Ethiopia in the coming three years. </div><div>COVID-19 uncertainty shock puts huge loss in the investment sector in Ethiopia at least in the coming two years 2013 and 2014 E.C (2020/21-2021/22). In this regard, the pandemic effect transmitted to shake investment expenditure via the length of the pandemic period itself and export performances, both of which are exogenous shocks. </div><div>The study identified that general under consumption features the Ethiopian economy in the next couple of years. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found to be key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular. </div><div><br></div>

THE EFFECT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN ETHIOPIA

<div>This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. <br></div><div>The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non food prices, investment, employment and export shocks.</div><div>The VAR estimate indicates that COVID-19 uncertainty shock results a massive rise in import in the six months following the outbreak of the pandemic. The finding in this regard is expected, as the pandemic triggers massive demand in food and pharmaceuticals, for which Ethiopia is import dependent on both items. In the next two years, however, the import bill of Ethiopia shows a decline. Reduction in aggregate demand (both consumption & investment expenditures) is one explanation for decline in import size in 2013 and 2014 E.C.</div><div>The price dynamics as forecasted in the upcoming three years in Ethiopia tells the direction of impacts of COVID-19 uncertainty shock to shake the macroeconomic order. The findings in this regard revealed the structural breakups of Ethiopian economy, characterized by its inability to withstand shocks. As signaled in forecasted price dynamics on both food and non food price indices, COVID-19 was a supply shock in its first time impact, but quickly transpasses to demand shock. And in the next few years the demand shock outweighs the supply shock. </div><div>The results of estimations indicate that food prices to sky rocketed at least until the end of 2014 E.C (2021/22 E.F.Y). On the other hand, except communication & hotel & restaurant prices, other components of non food price indices show a slump. The decline in non food price level is a clear showcase of under consumption characterizes the economic order in Ethiopia in the coming three years. </div><div>COVID-19 uncertainty shock puts huge loss in the investment sector in Ethiopia at least in the coming two years 2013 and 2014 E.C (2020/21-2021/22). In this regard, the pandemic effect transmitted to shake investment expenditure via the length of the pandemic period itself and export performances, both of which are exogenous shocks. </div><div>The study identified that general under consumption features the Ethiopian economy in the next couple of years. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found to be key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular. </div><div><br></div>