scholarly journals A Comparative study of Time Series, Empirical Orthogonal Transformation and Descriptive Statistical Analysis on Meteorological Parameters over Ogoja and Maiduguri

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
D. O. Akpootu ◽  
B. I. Tijjani ◽  
U. M. Gana
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Orthogonal Transformation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Sunshine Hours

In this study, time series statistical analysis was carried out on the monthly average daily meteorological parameters of global solar radiation, sunshine hours, wind speed, mean temperature, rainfall, cloud cover and relative humidity during the period of thirty one years (1980 – 2010) using IBM SPSS Statistics version 20 with expert modeler to determine the level, trend and seasonal variations for Ogoja and Maiduguri. Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models were determined for the two locations along with their respective statistical indicators of coefficient of determination, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Error and are found suitable for one step ahead forecast for the studied area. The factor analysis (empirical orthogonal transformation) and descriptive statistical analysis was also carried out for the study areas under investigation. The results indicated that the model type for all the meteorological parameters for Ogoja is simple seasonal while that for Maiduguri is simple seasonal except for rainfall and cloud cover with winter’s additive and ARIMA models respectively. The correlation matrix obtained from the factor analysis for the studied area indicated that the global solar radiation and wind speed are more correlated with the mean temperature. The sunshine hours and mean temperature are more correlated with the global solar radiation. The rainfall is more correlated with the relative humidity; similarly, the relative humidity is more correlated with the rainfall. However, the cloud cover is more correlated to the rainfall for Ogoja while for Maiduguri the cloud cover is more correlated to the relative humidity. The component matrix analysis revealed that two seasons are identified for Ogoja; the rainy and dry seasons while for Maiduguri three seasons are identified; the rainy, cool dry (harmattan) and hot dry seasons. The skewness and kurtosis test for Ogoja indicated that the global solar radiation, sunshine hours, cloud cover and relative humidity are negatively skewed and the wind speed, mean temperature and rainfall are positively skewed while the global solar radiation, sunshine hours, wind speed, cloud cover and relative humidity indicates possibility of a leptokurtic distribution and the mean temperature and rainfall indicates possibility of a platykurtic distribution. The skewness and kurtosis for Maiduguri indicated that the solar radiation, rainfall and relative humidity are positively skewed and the sunshine hours, wind speed, mean temperature and cloud cover are negatively skewed while the global solar radiation, rainfall and cloud cover indicates possibility of a leptokurtic distribution and the sunshine hours, wind speed, mean temperature and relative humidity indicates possibility of a platykurtic distribution.

scholarly journals Time Series and Empirical Orthogonal Transformation Using Meteorological Parameters across the Climatic Zones in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 257-272
Author(s):  
D. O. Akpootu ◽  
B. I. Tijjani ◽  
U. M. Gana
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Orthogonal Transformation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Sunshine Hours ◽  
Dry Seasons ◽  
The Mean

Time series and empirical orthogonal transformation analysis was carried out for four (4) selected tropical sites, which are situated across the four different climatic zones, viz. Sahelian, Midland, Guinea savannah and Coastal region in Nigeria using measured monthly average daily global solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures, sunshine hours, rainfall, wind speed, cloud cover and relative humidity meteorological data during the period of thirty one years (1980-2010). Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed along with their respective statistical indicators of coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results indicated that the models were found suitable for one step ahead global solar radiation forecast for the studied locations. Furthermore, the results of the time series analysis revealed that the model type for all the meteorological parameters show a combination of simple seasonal with one or more of either ARIMA, winter’s additive and winter’s multiplicative with the level been more significant as compared to the trend and seasonal variations for the exponential smoothing model parameters in all the locations. The results of the correlation matrix revealed that the global solar radiation is more correlated to the mean temperature except for Akure where it is more correlated to the sunshine hours; the mean temperature is more correlated to the global solar radiation; the rainfall is more correlated to the relative humidity and the relative humidity is more correlated to the rainfall in all the locations. The results of the component matrix revealed that three seasons are identified in Nguru located in the Sahelian region namely, the rainy, the cool dry (harmattan) and the hot dry seasons while in Zaria, Makurdi and Akure located in the Midland, Guinea savannah and Coastal zones two distinct seasons are identified namely, the rainy and dry seasons.

scholarly journals Estimation of Monthly Averaged Daily Solar Radiation with Sunshine Hours, Temperature, and Relative Humidity in Kathmandu, Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-138
Author(s):  
B. P. Pant ◽  
B. Budha ◽  
K. N. Poudyal ◽  
B. Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Meteorological Parameter ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Sunshine Hours ◽  
Sunshine Hour

This study is mainly concerned with the performance of various single and multiple meteorological parameter models to estimate the global solar radiation (GSR) on the horizontal site of Kathmandu, Nepal located at 27.69° N, 85.35° E at an altitude of 1338 meter from the sea level. The main concern of this research is to evaluate the preciseness and appropriateness of various models and to do that we have implemented diverse statistical tests. The results exhibit that all the used models have a good correlation for the determination of monthly averaged daily global solar radiation on the horizontal site of Kathmandu. Nonetheless, the sunshine hour and temperature-based model have shown a better agreement between the measured and estimated GSR of the studied site with RMSE and R2 values 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. The value of correlation coefficients a, b and c are found to be 0.42, 0.53, and 0.01, successively.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis for Prognosis of a Photochemical Smog Episode

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-24
Author(s):  
Camelia Gavrilă ◽  
Florinela Ardelean ◽  
Adriana Coman ◽  
Elena Burchiu
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Photochemical Smog ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations

Abstract In this paper we describe the evaluation of various climatic parameters in establishing their prognostic value in a photochemical smog episode. Our application was validated using real data from the “Cercul Militar National” and “Sos. Mihai Bravu nr. 47-49”, from April 2008 to May 2008. The study was performed on hour averages of pollutant concentrations and meteorological parameters and the statistical analysis was based on multiple regressions. We concluded by using mathematical and statistical methods, [1], that an accurate Global Solar Radiation is one of the most important and essential information in the pollution report.

scholarly journals Prediction of daily global solar radiation using different empirical models on the basis of meteorological parameters at Trans Himalaya Region, Nepal

BIBECHANA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Usha Joshi ◽  
I B Karki ◽  
N P Chapagain ◽  
K N Poudyal
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Sunshine Hour ◽  
Empirical Constants

Global Solar Radiation (GSR) is the cleanest and freely available energy resource on the earth.  GSR  was measured for six years (2010 -2015) at the horizontal surface using calibrated first-class CMP6 pyranometer at Kathmandu (Lat. 27.70o N, Long. 85.5oE and Alt. 1350m). This paper explains the daily, monthly, and seasonal variations of GSR and also compares with sunshine hour, ambient temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation to GSR. The annual average global solar radiation is about 4.16 kWh/m2/day which is a significant amount to promote solar active and passive energy technologies at the Trans-Himalaya region. In this study, the meteorological parameters are utilized in the regression technique for four different empirical models and finally, the empirical constants are found. Thus obtained coefficients are utilized to predict the GSR using meteorological parameters for the years to come. In addition, the predicted GSR is found to be closer to the measured value of GSR. The values are justified by using statistical tools such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean bias error (MBE). Finally, the values of R2, RMSE, MPE, and MBE are found to be 0.792, 1.405, -1.014, and 0.011, respectively for the model (D), which are based on sunshine hour, temperature and relative humidity. In this model, the empirical constants, a = 0.155, b = 0.134, c = 0.014 and d = 0.0007 are determined which can be utilized at the similar geographical locations of Nepal. BIBECHANA 18 (2021) 159-169

scholarly journals Comparative Study of Evapotranspiration Variation and its Relationship with other Climatic Parameters in Asaba and Uyo

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Okwunna M Umego ◽  
Temitayo A Ewemoje ◽  
Oluwaseun A Ilesanmi
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Small Variation ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Sunshine Hours

This study was carried out to assess the variations of Reference Evapotranspiration (ETO also denoted with RET) calculated using FAO-56 Penman Monteith model of two locations Asaba and Uyo and evaluate its relationships with the variations of other climatic parameters. Meteorological data of forty one years (1975-2015) and thirty five years (1981-2015) period for Asaba and Uyo, respectively gotten from Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Abuja were used. It was observed that the variations of Evapotranspiration (ET) in both locations were in line with two seasons (rainy and dry) normally experienced in Nigeria having its highest value in March (4.8 mm/day) for Asaba and for Uyo in February (4.5 mm/day); and its lowest value in August (3.1 mm/day) for Asaba and in July (2.9 mm/day) for Uyo. ET variation when compared with other climatic variables in both locations was observed to have the same trend with maximum temperature, solar radiation and sunshine hours. It also has the same variation with minimum temperature though with slight deviation. It was observed that ET variation is inversely proportional to the variation relative humidity. Wind speed displayed relatively small variation in its trend over the study period and is not in line with the variations of ET.Keywords— Evapotranspiration, Climatic Variables, FAO Penman-Monteith Model, Variations

scholarly journals Chaotic Signatures and Global Solar Radiation model estimate over Nigeria, a Tropical region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedayo Adelakun ◽  
Folasade Adelakun
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Temperature Difference ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Radiation Model ◽  
Model Estimate ◽  
Solar Radiation Model

Abstract. In a tropical region like Nigeria, accurate estimation and chaotic signatures of global solar radiation (Rs) are essential to the design of solar energy utilization systems in PV technology companies and one of the plant growth determinants in Agriculture. The Rs model is a function of solar declination angle, temperature difference, and relative humidity. In this paper, the daily re-analyzed atmospheric data obtained from the archive of ERA-Interim was used to estimate the nonlinear Global Solar radiation model and investigated chaotic signatures across the tropical climatic regions of Nigeria. The well-known statistical tools were used to analyze the chosen meteorological parameters and the correlation was found to be perfect, close with low values of RMSE across the selected regions over Nigeria. For proper modeling and prediction of the underlying dynamics, the extensive chaotic measures of phase space reconstruction using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analyses are also presented, analyzed and discussed with the appropriate choice of embedded dimension, m, and time delay τ. The radiant energy from the sun is one of the most available and renewable resources across the season in a tropical region like Nigeria. The information, therefore, suggests how vital the solar irradiance can be useful in Agriculture and Photovoltaic technology companies. Based on the scarcely gauged of global solar radiation (GSR) at meteorological stations in developing countries. This demand necessitates a better understanding of the underlying dynamics for better prediction mostly by the nonlinear Global Solar radiation model estimate and chaotic signature measurement. The optimum usage of meteorological parameters such as solar radiation, relative humidity and temperature difference needs further studies, using RPs and RQA measures. However, several data such as rainfall data, geomagnetic data, ionospheric data, wind speed data etc obtained from different parts of the world have been estimated with several models and applied to RQA measures for better prediction and modeling. Using RPs and RQA, features due to external effects such as harmattan and intertropical discontinuity (ITD) on solar radiation data in this tropical region were uniquely identified. Meanwhile, the inverse characteristic behavior of solar radiation and relative humidity were vividly maintained. The results show a very low value of RMSE while the value of R2 is very closed to 1, which depicts a good prediction for all locations. However, the highest values of both SSE and RMSE, as well as the lowest value of R2 were observed in kano station, which indicates high solar irradiance location. The RPs reviewed the observed clusters points around the parallel diagonal lines with short segments, which implies the presence of chaos. Additional complex measure, the RQA also shows that the solar radiation during the dry season of the months has lower values of Lmax, determinism and entropy, and higher values during the wet season of the months.

scholarly journals Diffuse solar radiation and associated meteorological parameters in India

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 1051-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. Bhattacharya ◽  
S. K. Kar ◽  
R. Bhattacharya
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Diffuse Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Diffuse Solar Radiation ◽  
Sunshine Hours ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Solar diffuse radiation data including global radiation, shortwave and longwave balances, net radiation and sunshine hours have been extensively analyzed to study the variation of diffuse radiation with turbidity and cloud discharges appearing in the form of atmospherics over the tropics. Results of surface radiation measurements at Calcutta, Poona, Delhi and Madras are presented together with some meteorological parameters. The monthly values of diffuse radiation and the monthly ratios of diffuse to global solar radiation have been examined, with a special emphasis in relation to the noise level of atmospherics at Calcutta in the very low frequency band. The results exhibit some definite seasonal changes which appear to be in close agreement with one another.

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