Ten years of NIHR research training: who got an award? A retrospective cohort study

ObjectiveIn 2017, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) academy produced a strategic review of training, which reported the variation in application characteristics associated with success rates. It was noted that variation in applicant characteristic was not independent of one another. Therefore, the aim of this secondary analysis was to investigate the inter-relationships in order to identify factors (or groups of factors) most associated with application numbers and success rates.DesignRetrospective data were gathered from 4388 applications to NIHR Academy between 2007 and 2016. Multinominal logistic regression models quantified the likelihood of success depending on changes in the explanatory factors; relative risk ratios with 95% CIs. A classification tree analysis was built using exhaustive χ2 automatic interaction detection to better understand the effect of interactions between explanatory variables on application success rates.Results936 (21.3%) applications were awarded. Applications from males and females were equally likely to be successful (p=0.71). There was an overall reduction in numbers of applications from females as award seniority increased from predoctoral to professorship. Applications from institutions with a medical school had a 2.6-fold increase in likelihood of success (p<0.001). Classification tree analysis revealed key predictors of application success: award level, type of programme, previous NIHR award experience and applying form a medical school.ConclusionSuccess rates did not differ according to gender, and doctors were not more likely to be successful than applications from other professions. Taken together, these findings suggest an essential fairness in how the quality of a submitted application is assessed, but they also raise questions about variation in the opportunity to submit a high-quality application. The companion qualitative study (Burkshaw et al. (2021) BMJ Open) provides valuable insight into potential candidate mechanisms and discusses how research capacity development initiatives might be targeted in the future.

Substance Use Relapse Among Veterans at Termination of Treatment for Substance Use Disorders

ABSTRACT Introduction Military veterans continue to struggle with addiction even after receiving treatment for substance use disorders (SUDs). Identifying factors that may influence SUD relapse upon receiving treatment in veteran populations is crucial for intervention and prevention efforts. The purpose of this study was to examine risk factors that contribute to SUD relapse upon treatment completion in a sample of U.S. veterans using logistic regression and classification tree analysis. Materials and Methods Data from the 2017 Treatment Episode Data Set—Discharge (TEDS-D) included 40,909 veteran episode observations. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression analysis were conducted to determine factors associated with SUD relapse after treatment discharge. Classification trees were constructed to identify high-risk subgroups for substance use after discharge from treatment for SUDs. Results Approximately 94% of the veterans relapsed upon discharge from outpatient or residential SUD treatment. Veterans aged 18-34 years old were significantly less likely to relapse than the 35-64 age group (odds ratio [OR] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66, 0.82), while males were more likely than females to relapse (OR 1.55, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.79). Unemployed veterans (OR 1.92, 95% CI: 1.67, 2.22) or veterans not in the labor force (OR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.47) were more likely to relapse than employed veterans. Homeless vs. independently housed veterans had 3.26 (95% CI: 2.55, 4.17) higher odds of relapse after treatment. Veterans with one arrest vs. none were more likely to relapse (OR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.95). Treatment completion was critical to maintain sobriety, as every other type of discharge led to more than double the odds of relapse. Veterans who received care at 24-hour detox facilities were 1.49 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.80) times more likely to relapse than those at rehabilitative/residential treatment facilities. Classification tree analysis indicated that homelessness upon discharge was the most important predictor in SUD relapse among veterans. Conclusion Aside from numerous challenges that veterans face after leaving military service, SUD relapse is intensified by risk factors such as homelessness, unemployment, and insufficient SUD treatment. As treatment and preventive care for SUD relapse is an active field of study, further research on SUD relapse among homeless veterans is necessary to better understand the epidemiology of substance addiction among this vulnerable population. The findings of this study can inform healthcare policy and practices targeting veteran-tailored treatment programs to improve SUD treatment completion and lower substance use after treatment.

Diminished ovarian reserve is the major cause of infertility among women undergoing their first assisted reproductive technology treatment: a retrospective observational study

Background This study aims to investigate the effects of various factors on treatment outcomes in women undergoing in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) with embryo transfer (ET). Methods Of the 8993 eligible women who underwent their first IVF/ICSI–ET cycles, and met our inclusion and exclusion criteria, 2742(30.5%) achieved clinical pregnancy while 6251(69.5%) did not. Multivariable Cox regression analysis, multiple logistic regression analysis, and classification tree analysis were used sequentially to screen key predictors among predictors of various infertility causes and ovarian stimulation protocols through the best subset technique. Results Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the main factor affecting fertility in first attempts at IVF/ICSI–ET is diminished ovarian reserve (DOR), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.406 and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.353–0.466. Multiple forward logistic regression with 5-fold cross-validation also found that, with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.522 (95% CI = 2.167–2.937), DOR affects fertility. The classification tree analysis was further used to better visualize the model. Conclusions DOR is the major factor affecting success rates in couples undergoing their first attempt at IVF/ICSI-ET. The selection of the most appropriate pairs for IVF/ICSI treatment can not only increase the success rates but also the cumulative cost-effectiveness.

Surgical site infections after distal radius fracture surgery: a nation-wide cohort study of 31,807 adult patients

Background Surgical site infections (SSI) after distal radius fracture (DRF) surgery have not previously been studied as the primary outcome in a large population with comparative data for different surgical methods. The aims of this study were 1) to compare SSI rates between plate fixation, percutaneous pinning and external fixation, and 2) to study factors associated with SSI. Methods We performed a nation-wide cohort study linking data from the Swedish national patient register (NPR) with the Swedish prescribed drug register (SPDR). We included all patients ≥18 years with a registration of a surgically treated DRF in the NPR between 2006 and 2013. The primary outcome was a registration in the SPDR of a dispensed prescription of peroral Flucloxacillin and/or Clindamycin within the first 8 weeks following surgery, which was used as a proxy for an SSI. The SSI rates for the three main surgical methods were calculated. Logistic regression was used to study the association between surgical method and the primary outcome, adjusted for potential confounders including age, sex, fracture type (closed/open), and a dispensed prescription of Flucloxacillin and/or Clindamycin 0–8 weeks prior to DRF surgery. A classification tree analysis was performed to study which factors were associated with SSI. Results A total of 31,807 patients with a surgically treated DRF were included. The proportion of patients with an SSI was 5% (n = 1110/21,348) among patients treated with plate fixation, 12% (n = 754/6198) among patients treated with percutaneous pinning, and 28% (n = 1180/4261) among patients treated with external fixation. After adjustment for potential confounders, the surgical method most strongly associated with SSI was external fixation (aOR 6.9 (95% CI 6.2–7.5, p < 0.001)), followed by percutaneous pinning (aOR 2.7 (95% CI 2.4–3.0, p < 0.001)) (reference: plate fixation). The classification tree analysis showed that surgical method, fracture type (closed/open), age and sex were factors associated with SSI. Conclusions The SSI rate was highest after external fixation and lowest after plate fixation. The results may be useful for estimation of SSI burdens after DRF surgery on a population basis. For the physician, they may be useful for estimating the likelihood of SSI in individual patients.