Local to regional methane emissions from the Upper Silesia Coal Basin (USCB) quantified using UAV-based atmospheric measurements

Coal mining accounts for ~ 12 % of the total anthropogenic methane emissions worldwide. The Upper Silesian Coal Basin, Poland, where large quantities of CH4 are emitted to the atmosphere via ventilation shafts of underground hard coal (anthracite) mines, is one of the hot spots of methane emissions in Europe. However, coalbed CH4 emissions into the atmosphere are poorly characterized. As part of the Carbon Dioxide and CH4 mission 1.0 (CoMet 1.0) that took place in May – June 2018, we flew a recently developed active AirCore system aboard an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to obtain CH4 and CO2 mole fractions 150–300 m downwind of five individual ventilation shafts in the USCB. In addition, we also measured δ13C-CH4, δ2H-CH4, ambient temperature, pressure, relative humidity, surface wind speeds and directions. We have used 34 UAV flights and two different approaches (inverse Gaussian approach and mass balance approach) to quantify the emissions from individual shafts. The quantified emissions were compared to both annual and hourly inventory data, and were used to derive the estimates of CH4 emissions in the USCB. We found a high correlation (R2 = 0.7 – 0.9) between the quantified and hourly inventory data-based shaft-averaged CH4 emissions, which in principle would allow regional estimates of CH4 emissions to be derived by upscaling individual hourly inventory data of all shafts. Currently, such inventory data is available only for the five shafts we quantified though. As an alternative, we have developed three upscaling approaches, i.e., by scaling the E-PRTR annual inventory, the quantified shaft-averaged emission rate, and the shaft-averaged emission rate that are derived from the hourly emission inventory. These estimates are in the range of 325 – 447 kt CH4/year for the inverse Gaussian approach and 268 – 347 kt CH4/year for the mass balance approach, respectively. This study shows that the UAV-based active AirCore system can be a useful tool to quantify local to regional point source methane emissions.

Point process simulation of generalised inverse Gaussian processes and estimation of the Jaeger integral

In this paper novel simulation methods are provided for the generalised inverse Gaussian (GIG) Lévy process. Such processes are intractable for simulation except in certain special edge cases, since the Lévy density associated with the GIG process is expressed as an integral involving certain Bessel functions, known as the Jaeger integral in diffusive transport applications. We here show for the first time how to solve the problem indirectly, using generalised shot-noise methods to simulate the underlying point processes and constructing an auxiliary variables approach that avoids any direct calculation of the integrals involved. The resulting augmented bivariate process is still intractable and so we propose a novel thinning method based on upper bounds on the intractable integrand. Moreover, our approach leads to lower and upper bounds on the Jaeger integral itself, which may be compared with other approximation methods. The shot noise method involves a truncated infinite series of decreasing random variables, and as such is approximate, although the series are found to be rapidly convergent in most cases. We note that the GIG process is the required Brownian motion subordinator for the generalised hyperbolic (GH) Lévy process and so our simulation approach will straightforwardly extend also to the simulation of these intractable processes. Our new methods will find application in forward simulation of processes of GIG and GH type, in financial and engineering data, for example, as well as inference for states and parameters of stochastic processes driven by GIG and GH Lévy processes.