Spatial synchrony in the start and end of the thermal growing season has different trends in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Changes in spatial synchrony in the growing season have notable effects on species distribution, cross-trophic ecological interactions and ecosystem stability. These changes, driven by non-uniform climate change were observed on the regional scale. It is still unclear how spatial synchrony of the growing season on the climate gradient of the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and ecoregions, has changed over the past decades. Therefore, we calculated the start, end, and length of the thermal growing season (SOS, EOS, and LOS, respectively), which are indicators of the theoretical plant growth season, based on the daily-mean temperature of the Princeton Global Forcing dataset from 1948-2016. Spatial variations in the SOS, EOS and LOS along spatial climate gradients were analyzed using the multivariate-linear regression model. The changes of spatial synchrony in the SOS, EOS and LOS were analyzed using the segmented model. The results showed that in all ecoregions, spatially, areas with higher temperature tended to have an earlier SOS, later EOS and longer LOS. However, not all the areas with higher precipitation tended to have a later SOS, later EOS, and shorter LOS. The spatial synchrony in the SOS decreased across the entire study area, whereas the EOS showed the opposite trend. Among the seven ecoregions, spatial synchrony in the SOS in temperate broadleaf/mixed forests and temperate conifer forests changed the most noticeably, decreasing in both regions. Conversely, spatial synchrony in the EOS in the taiga, temperate grasslands/savannas/shrublands and tundra changed the most noticeably, increasing in each region. These may have important effects on the structure and function of ecosystems, especially on the changes in cross-trophic ecological interactions. Moreover, future climate change may change the spatial synchrony in the SOS and EOS further; however, the actual impact of such ongoing change is largely unknown.

Synchrony in population dynamics of juvenile Atlantic salmon: analyzing spatio-temporal variation and the influence of river flow and demography

Dispersal and shared environmental conditions can both synchronize the dynamics of local populations, but disentangling their relative influence on dynamics is challenging. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the synchrony of a metapopulation of Atlantic salmon composed of 18 populations in Brittany, France, including a 24-year time-series of the abundances of juveniles. We estimated the spatial synchrony at a regional and local spatial scale over the study period. We found a strong regional synchrony despite spatio-temporal variability of local synchrony in the abundance of juveniles. We then explored the drivers of synchrony, including environmental conditions (aspects of river flow) and abundance of adult breeders. This revealed that summer low-flow conditions seemed to synchronize the abundances of juveniles more than the synchrony in the abundance of adult breeders, suggesting a Moran effect. Given that drought conditions are expected to become more common with climate change, our work highlights the potentially strong synchronizing effect of summer low-flow on the dynamics of local salmon populations and the benefits of considering synchrony at multiple scales.

Spatial Phase Synchronisation of Pistachio Alternate Bearing

Nonlinear physics and agroecosystems can be of great relevance in the synchronisations of chaotic oscillators. The endogenous dynamics of the seed production of perennial plant species which include alternate bearing and masting, portray typical synchronisation patterns in nature and can be modelled using a tent map known as a resource budget model (RBM). This study investigates the collective rhythm in 9,562 pistachio trees caused by their endogenous network dynamics and exogenous forces (common noise). Common noise and a local coupling of RBMs are the two primary factors emerging from the bearing phase synchronisation in this orchard. The in-phase/out-of-phase analysis technique quantifying the strength of the phase synchronisation in trees (population /individual) allows us to study the observed spatial synchrony in detail. We demonstrate how three essential factors, i.e. (a) common noise, (b) local direct coupling, and (c) the gradient of the cropping coefficient, explain the spatial synchrony of the orchard. Here, we also show that the methodology employing nonlinear physics to study agroecological systems can be useful for resolving practical problems in agriculture including yield variability and spatial synchrony which often compromise efficient resource management.

Noise-Induced Versus Intrinsic Oscillation in Ecological Systems

Studies of populations oscillating through time have a long history in ecology as these dynamics can help provide insights into the causes of population regulation. A particularly difficult challenge is determining the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces in producing this oscillatory behavior. Another classic ecological study area is the study of spatial synchrony which also has helped unravel underlying population dynamic principles. One possible approach to understanding the causes of population cycles is based on the idea that a focus on spatiotemporal behavior, oscillations in coupled populations, can provide much further insight into the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces. Using ideas based on concepts from statistical physics, we develop results showing that in a system with coupling between adjacent populations, a study of spatial synchrony provides much information about the underlying causes of oscillations. Novel, to ecology, measures of spatial synchrony are a key step.

Predator avoidance and foraging for food shape synchrony and response to perturbations in trophic metacommunities

The response of species to perturbations strongly depends on spatial aspects in populations connected by dispersal. Asynchronous fluctuations in biomass among populations lower the risk of simultaneous local extinctions and thus reduce the regional extinction risk. However, dispersal is often seen as passive diffusion that balances species abundance between distant patches, whereas ecological constraints, such as predator avoidance or foraging for food, trigger the movement of individuals. Here, we propose a model in which dispersal rates depend on the abundance of the species interacting with the dispersing species (e.g., prey or predators) to determine how density-dependent dispersal shapes spatial synchrony in trophic metacommunities in response to stochastic perturbations. Thus, unlike those with passive dispersal, this model with density-dependent dispersal bypasses the classic vertical transmission of perturbations due to trophic interactions and deeply alters synchrony patterns. We show that the species with the highest coefficient of variation of biomass governs the dispersal rate of the dispersing species and determines the synchrony of its populations. In addition, we show that this mechanism can be modulated by the relative impact of each species on the growth rate of the dispersing species. Species affected by several constraints disperse to mitigate the strongest constraints (e.g., predation), which does not necessarily experience the highest variations due to perturbations. Our approach can disentangle the joint effects of several factors implied in dispersal and provides a more accurate description of dispersal and its consequences on metacommunity dynamics.