Tropical cyclone simulation with Emanuel’s convection scheme

ABSTRACT. A new convection parameterization scheme proposed by Emanuel (1991) is used to simulate the evolution of tropical cyclone. The numerical model used for this study is a 19 level axi-symmetric primitive equation, hydrostatic model in a z co-ordinate system. The vertical domain ranges from 0 to 18 km and the horizontal domain ranges upto 3114 km with a resolution of 20 km. in the central 400 km radius and with increasing radial distance thereafter. The evolution of an initially balanced vortex with an initial strength of 9 m/sec is studied. It is shown that Emanuel's convection scheme is successful in simulating the development of the initial vortex into a mature, intense cyclonic storm. At the mature stage, a minimum surface pressure of 930 hPa is attained with the associated low level maximum tangential wind speed of 70 m/sec. The simulated circulation features at the mature stage show the formation of an intense cyclone. Two different sensitivity experiments were performed. A set of experiments with the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) from 300.5° to 302° K in steps of 0.5° K have shown that the intensity of model cyclone increases with the increase of SST. Another set of experiments with variation of latitude has shown that the cyclonic storm is more intense at lower latitudes.

Variability of Tropical Cyclone Frequency Over the Western North Pacific in 2018–2020

In this study, we examine the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in 2018–2020 and its relationship with planetary scale convection and circulation anomalies, which play an important role for TC genesis. To determine the sea surface temperature (SST)-forced atmospheric variability, atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble simulations are executed along with the observed SST. For AGCM experiments, we use two different convection schemes to examine uncertainty in convective parameterization and robustness of simulated atmospheric response. The observed TC activity and genesis potential demonstrated consistent features. In our AGCM ensemble simulations, the updated convection scheme improves the simulation ability of observed genesis potential as well as planetary scale convection and circulation features, e.g., in September–October–November (SON), a considerable increase in the genesis potential index over the WNP in SON 2018, WNP in SON 2019, and South China Sea (SCS) in SON 2020, which were not captured in the Emanuel scheme, have been simulated in the updated convection scheme.

Evaluation of different convective schemes on simulation of thunderstorm event over Delhi by ARPS Model

Three difference cumulus parameterization schemes namely, Kain-Fritsch, New Kain-Fritsch and the Betts-Miller-Janjic are used to simulated convective rainfall associated with two thunderstorm events over Delhi by Advanced Regional Prediction Model (ARPS). An inter comparison of model simulated precipitation in respect of each convection scheme is made with reference to observed precipitation. The study shows that for the Delhi thunderstorm events, the Kain-Fritsch scheme provides more realistic results. This scheme is able to capture the temporal distribution of rainfall and the timely development of thunderstorm in both the cases. While the other two schemes fail to capture these features. However, the Kain-Fritsch scheme is found to overestimate the rainfall amount.

Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes

The effect of deep convection parameterization on the jet stream above the cold front of an explosive extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE, operational at Météo-France. Two hindcast simulations differing only in the deep convection scheme used are systematically compared with each other, with (re)-analysis datasets and with NAWDEX airborne observations. The deep convection representation has an important effect on the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front at one-day lead time. The simulation with the less active scheme shows a deeper jet stream, associated with a stronger potential vorticity (PV) gradient in the jet core in middle troposphere. This is due to a larger deepening of the dynamical tropopause on the cold-air side of the jet and a higher PV destruction on the warm-air side, near 600 hPa. To better understand the origin of this stronger PV gradient, Lagrangian backward trajectories are computed. On the cold-air side of the jet, numerous trajectories undergo a rapid ascent from the boundary layer to the mid levels in the simulation with the less active deep convection scheme, whereas they stay at mid levels in the other simulation. This ascent explains the higher PV noted on that side of the jet in the simulation with the less active deep convection scheme. These ascending air masses form mid-level ice clouds that are not observed in the microphysical retrievals from airborne radar-lidar measurements. On the warm-air side of the jet, in the warm conveyor belt (WCB) ascending region, the Lagrangian trajectories with the less active deep convection scheme undergo a higher PV destruction due to a stronger heating occurring in the lower and middle troposphere. In contrast, in the simulation with the most active deep convection scheme, both the heating and PV destruction extend further up in the upper troposphere.

Suppressing Grid-Point Storms in a Numerical Forecasting Model

The convective parameterization scheme of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) is tentatively modified to suppress grid-point storms in the Western Pacific Ocean. The KIM v3.2.11 suffers from the numerical problem that grid-point storms degrade forecasts in the tropical oceans and around the Korean Peninsula. Another convective parameterization scheme, the new Tiedtke scheme, is implemented in the KIM. The artificial storms are suppressed in the test version because the heating and drying tendencies of the new Tiedtke scheme are stronger than those of the default KIM Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (KSAS) scheme. Based on this comparison, the KSAS scheme is modified to strengthen its heating and drying tendencies by reducing the entrainment and detrainment rates. The modified KSAS scheme suppresses grid-point storms and thus decreases grid-scale precipitation in a summertime case simulation. Twenty 10-day forecasts with the default convection scheme (KSAS) and twenty forecasts with the modified scheme are conducted and compared with each other, confirming that the modified KSAS scheme successfully suppresses grid-point storms.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Idai Simulations to Cumulus Parametrization Schemes

Weather simulations are sensitive to subgrid processes that are parameterized in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, we investigated the response of tropical cyclone Idai simulations to different cumulus parameterization schemes using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 6 km grid length. Seventy-two-hour (00 UTC 13 March to 00 UTC 16 March) simulations were conducted with the New Tiedtke (Tiedtke), New Simplified Arakawa–Schubert (NewSAS), Multi-Scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF), Grell–Freitas, and the Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) schemes. A simulation for the same event was also conducted with the convection scheme switched off. The twenty-four-hour accumulated rainfall during all three simulated days was generally similar across all six experiments. Larger differences in simulations were found for rainfall events away from the tropical cyclone. When the resolved and convective rainfall are partitioned, it is found that the scale-aware schemes (i.e., Grell–Freitas and MSKF) allow the model to resolve most of the rainfall, while they are less active. Regarding the maximum wind speed, and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), the scale aware schemes simulate a higher intensity that is similar to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) dataset, however, the timing is more aligned with the Global Forecast System (GFS), which is the model providing initial conditions and time-dependent lateral boundary conditions. Simulations with the convection scheme off were found to be similar to those with the scale-aware schemes. It was found that Tiedtke simulates the location to be farther southwest compared to other schemes, while BMJ simulates the path to be more to the north after landfall. All of the schemes as well as GFS failed to simulate the movement of Idai into Zimbabwe, showing the potential impact of shortcomings on the forcing model. Our study shows that the use of scale aware schemes allows the model to resolve most of the dynamics, resulting in higher weather system intensity in the grey zone. The wrong timing of the peak shows a need to use better performing global models to provide lateral boundary conditions for downscalers.

What rainfall rates are most important to wet removal of different aerosol types?

Both frequency and intensity of rainfall affect aerosol wet deposition. With a stochastic deep convection scheme implemented into two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs), a recent study found that aerosol burdens are increased globally by reduced climatological mean wet removal of aerosols due to suppressed light rain. Motivated by their work, a novel approach is developed in this study to detect what rainfall rates are most efficient for wet removal (scavenging amount mode) of different aerosol species in different sizes in GCMs and applied to the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with and without the stochastic convection cases. Results show that in the standard CAM5, no obvious differences in the scavenging amount mode are found among different aerosol types. However, the scavenging amount modes differ in the Aitken, accumulation and coarse modes showing around 10-12, 8-9, and 7-8 mm d−1, respectively over the tropics. As latitude increases poleward, the scavenging amount mode in each aerosol mode is decreased substantially. The scavenging amount mode is generally smaller over land than over ocean. With stochastic convection, the scavenging amount mode for all aerosol species in each mode is systematically increased, which is the most prominent along the Intertropical Convergence Zone exceeding 20 mm d−1 for small particles. Regardless of whether the stochastic convection scheme is used, convective precipitation has higher efficiency in removing aerosols than large-scale precipitation over the globe even though convection is infrequent over high-latitudes. The scavenging amount modes in the two cases are both smaller than individual rainfall rates associated with the most accumulated rain (rainfall amount mode), further implying precipitation frequency is more important than precipitation intensity for aerosol wet removal. The notion of the scavenging amount mode can be applied to other GCMs to better understand the relation between rainfall and aerosol wet scavenging, which is important to better simulating aerosols.

Evaluating the Performance of Cumulus Convection Parameterization Schemes in Regional Climate Modeling System

In this study, we explored the performance of the cumulus convection parameterization schemes of Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM) towards the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) of a catastrophic year through various numerical experiments conducted with different convection schemes (Kuo, Grell amd MIT) in RegCM. The model is integrated at 60KM horizontal resolution over Indian region and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The simulated temperature at 2m and the wind at 10m are validated against the forced data and the total precipitation is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) observations. We find that the simulation with MIT convection scheme is close to the GPCC data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Our results with three convection schemes suggest that the RegCM with MIT convection scheme successfully simulated some characteristics of ISM of a catastrophic year and may be further examined with more number of convection schemes to customize which convection scheme is much better.

Options and extensions for the stochastic shallow convection scheme in ICON

<p>The Icosahedral Model (ICON) of the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) is used for numerical weather prediction at global and regional scales. In the limited area mode, resolution is typically on the order of a few kilometers horizontal grid spacing. Deep convective transport is partially resolved at these scales, but shallow convection remains poorly represented without a parameterization.</p><p>A stochastic shallow convection scheme was developed in collaboration with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and is now being implemented in ICON with a view towards operational use. The scheme is scale-adaptive and renders resolution-dependent tuning of the convection parameterization unnecessary. Mass flux limiters essential for the stable operation of the unaltered convection scheme can be removed when the stochastic perturbations are introduced.</p><p>Alongside the original, explicit stochastic scheme an approximation using stochastic differential equations (SDE) has been developed. The advantage of the SDE version is a lower computational and memory cost, and the ability to save and restart the model‘s stochastic cloud state easily.</p><p>Equivalence of the two versions can be demonstrated by running one version interactively, the other passively (“piggy-backing”). While the SDE approximation is computationally more efficient, the explicit version of the scheme can be easily extended to keep track of additional properties of the shallow cloud ensemble. For example, the convective updraft core fraction can be calculated for use in the diagnostic subgrid cloud scheme. Or knowledge of individual clouds’ depth can be used to derive a more realistic lateral detrainment profile than is currently in use.</p><p>We demonstrate the performance of the scheme and illustrate options and applications in single column mode, case studies and month-long hindcasts.</p>